London Has Peaked

Bubble_and_Squeak

hamish_mctavish wrote: »

it transparently hadn't peaked when you started this thread.

yay!
Hamish is back!

ukcarper

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

could be the fabled "ripple"

Could be anything but I don't think you know anymore than me or anybody else.

chucknorris

ukcarper wrote: »

I think that that is what a lot of people including myself are saying, like most of us the OP has no idea if London prices have peaked and to state categorically that they have using the "evidence" he puts forward is nonsense.

This is one of the main problems I have when marking students' dissertations, sometimes don't seem to be capable of separating opinion from fact, both are valid, but very different.

Bubble_and_Squeak

ukcarper wrote: »

I think that that is what a lot of people including myself are saying, like most of us the OP has no idea if London prices have peaked and to state categorically that they have using the "evidence" he puts forward is nonsense.

the OP was actively looking for a property to purchase in london up until april and consequently saw first hand the level of demand that existed in the market at that time. the OP put offers at or above the asking price on around 10-12 houses in 2014 and was outbid (usually by a substantial amount) on each occasion. the OP consequently decided that the market was overheated. today, when the OP browses rightmove using property-bee he sees houses sitting on the market for several months not selling until they reduce their inflated asking price.

ukcarper

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

the OP was actively looking for a property to purchase in london up until april and consequently saw first hand the level of demand that existed in the market at that time. the OP put offers at or above the asking price on around 10-12 houses in 2014 and was outbid (usually by a substantial amount) on each occasion. the OP consequently decided that the market was overheated. today, when the OP browses rightmove using property-bee he sees houses sitting on the market for several months not selling until they reduce their inflated asking price.

But this is your problem some house don't sell when the market is buoyant while other properties sell when everybody else is struggling and looking at a few properties on rightmove tells you very little.

If you are serious about buying next year I hope you are right and prices don't pick up in the new year.

buglawton

ukcarper wrote: »

But this is your problem some house don't sell when the market is buoyant while other properties sell when everybody else is struggling and looking at a few properties on rightmove tells you very little.

If you are serious about buying next year I hope you are right and prices don't pick up in the new year.

And, do you know what, if OP is patient and waits, there may indeed be another price dip in the category OP is trying to purchase in, for a successful purchase to be made.

Keep your powder dry, Bubble & Squeak.

ukcarper

buglawton wrote: »

And, do you know what, if OP is patient and waits, there may indeed be another price dip in the category OP is trying to purchase in, for a successful purchase to be made.

Keep your powder dry, Bubble & Squeak.

Of course there could be and if there is he will be OK but if there isn't he will lose out he might even not be able to buy. It's a gamble and it's his money so it's up to him what he does and I hope he is alright but that doesn't alter the fact that he doesn't know what will happen.

wotsthat

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

the OP was actively looking for a property to purchase in london up until april and consequently saw first hand the level of demand that existed in the market at that time. the OP put offers at or above the asking price on around 10-12 houses in 2014 and was outbid (usually by a substantial amount) on each occasion. the OP consequently decided that the market was overheated. today, when the OP browses rightmove using property-bee he sees houses sitting on the market for several months not selling until they reduce their inflated asking price.

You will have seen examples of houses sitting on the market for months in April as well as now. I bet you weren't using Property Bee in April and, in a rush to confirm your bias, hadn't considered the possibility that it's entirely usual for vendors to reduce prices if they don't sell.

There's no obvious link between sold prices and the number of price reductions you spot on Property Bee either. Since April average asking prices in your area, Haringey, have increased from £640k to £669k. You could also look at the 'has London peaked' thread on HPC. There have been near daily postings for the best part of a year of vendors reducing asking prices whilst selling prices have, unarguably, increased.

Property Bee will be useful when you're viewing a property because it'll give you access to the vendor's previous asking price history and, potentially, an insight into their thought process but as a tool for proving your peak theory it's rubbish.

MGCP

I'm not even sure what this thread is about any more!

Given that people will be buying and selling houses long after we are all dead, can someone explain what "peaked" actually means in this context?

Is the peak in relation to salaries? Does peak mean never again will prices be as unaffordable as they are now? Is forever too long and does it just relate to the next 40-50 years? If prices drop for a bit but then go up higher then was that a legitimate "peak".

Bubble_and_Squeak

ukcarper wrote: »

Of course there could be and if there is he will be OK but if there isn't he will lose out he might even not be able to buy. It's a gamble and it's his money so it's up to him what he does and I hope he is alright but that doesn't alter the fact that he doesn't know what will happen.

i think we'll have a better idea of what will happen after the autumn statement. if ozzy comes up with new scheme to keep prices artificially high i intend to do an MSE and jump in. if not i'll probably hang tight until the new year.