London Has Peaked

Bubble_and_Squeak

MobileSaver wrote: »

No, the data simply doesn't include some mortgages such as buy-to-let, further advances and around 10% of niche mortgage providers.

So do you believe that the ONS figures are fundamentally and materially incorrect?

there are one measure of a section of the market and should be treated as such. i fully expect the bulls to constantly quote ONS in the coming months as its the last index (apart from halifax) not to peak

danothy

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

looks like you didn't attend any open days in april

Are you measuring my attendance in the same way you are measuring 'madness' in the housing market?

MobileSaver

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

there are one measure of a section of the market and should be treated as such.

That's right, 65% of the entire market and so a pretty good measure of how the housing market is going.

Alternatively we could use your methodology of selectively quoting 0.001% of Rightmove properties... I wonder which measure most sane people would consider to be more accurate?

MGCP

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

when i first starting mucking about on this site about 3 months ago hamish was telling people it was a good time to buy and was getting "thanked" for his troubles by the bulls.
since then we've seen supply increase, time to sell increase, demand decrease and percentage of asking price achieved decrease.
someone reading this bull nonsense back then may well have ended up with a huge debt on a property they didn't want but felt compelled to buy so they wouldn't miss the boat.
well, the boat is still firmly anchored in port.

Assuming we exclude professional investors who I would guess aren't following MSE for advice on the property market, why would anyone else buying a house worry about what the price had done in the few months following their purchase?

You don't (or shouldn't) even buy shares without looking at a minimum 5 year or so period of holding on to them, let alone a far less liquid purchase like a house.

Trying to "time the market" on a house purchase just isn't realistic for most people. Firstly, properly timing any market is generally more luck than judgment, and secondly real life has a habit of dictating people's actions. They buy a house at a particular time for all sorts of reasons, growing families, desire for stability, bad experiences with lettings, etc etc.

That was my experience, I'd finally had enough of renting in London and wanted a place of my own where I could settle down with my wife and newly born son. If I followed the advice on HPC I'd still be waiting for this big crash so that I could walk in an buy a place for cash, all the time laughing at the "sheeple". But that would also have meant spending the last year paying rent and watching the prices in the area I wanted to buy increase by another 24%.

If I'd done that I'd be feeling sick every day as I watched the place I was just able to afford then shoot out of reach. I'm absolutely sure I'd have ended up on HPC every day talking up the crash because frankly that would be all I had left to cling on to. The alternative would be having to accept that I'd royally messed up and that if I wanted to buy now I would have to drastically reduce my expectations (again!).

So, maybe the much talked about crash will actually happen. Maybe I'll watch the price drop by the 25% its apparently risen, and then keep on going. If it drops by about 45% I might even end up in negative equity.

On the plus side though, I'll still own a house and until I want to sell it, or until I'm forced to sell, the estimated value won't mean all that much really.

There will always be people who buy at a better time, and there will always be others who buy at a worse time. It isn't really worth obsessing about it. I might like to have bought my house for less but I got it for a price I was willing to pay, so I'll just get on with my life and everyone else can get on with theirs.

observingthedebate

MGCP wrote: »

Assuming we exclude professional investors who I would guess aren't following MSE for advice on the property market, why would anyone else buying a house worry about what the price had done in the few months following their purchase?

You don't (or shouldn't) even buy shares without looking at a minimum 5 year or so period of holding on to them, let alone a far less liquid purchase like a house.

Trying to "time the market" on a house purchase just isn't realistic for most people. Firstly, properly timing any market is generally more luck than judgment, and secondly real life has a habit of dictating people's actions. They buy a house at a particular time for all sorts of reasons, growing families, desire for stability, bad experiences with lettings, etc etc.

That was my experience, I'd finally had enough of renting in London and wanted a place of my own where I could settle down with my wife and newly born son. If I followed the advice on HPC I'd still be waiting for this big crash so that I could walk in an buy a place for cash, all the time laughing at the "sheeple". But that would also have meant spending the last year paying rent and watching the prices in the area I wanted to buy increase by another 24%.

If I'd done that I'd be feeling sick every day as I watched the place I was just able to afford then shoot out of reach. I'm absolutely sure I'd have ended up on HPC every day talking up the crash because frankly that would be all I had left to cling on to. The alternative would be having to accept that I'd royally messed up and that if I wanted to buy now I would have to drastically reduce my expectations (again!).

So, maybe the much talked about crash will actually happen. Maybe I'll watch the price drop by the 25% its apparently risen, and then keep on going. If it drops by about 45% I might even end up in negative equity.

On the plus side though, I'll still own a house and until I want to sell it, or until I'm forced to sell, the estimated value won't mean all that much really.

There will always be people who buy at a better time, and there will always be others who buy at a worse time. It isn't really worth obsessing about it. I might like to have bought my house for less but I got it for a price I was willing to pay, so I'll just get on with my life and everyone else can get on with theirs.

Great post, I agree wholeheartedly

Bubble_and_Squeak

MobileSaver wrote: »

That's right, 65% of the entire market and so a pretty good measure of how the housing market is going.

Alternatively we could use your methodology of selectively quoting 0.001% of Rightmove properties... I wonder which measure most sane people would consider to be more accurate?

i'm interested in a particular micro market so what 65% of the rest of the country is doing may not be entirely relevant.

Bubble_and_Squeak

MGCP wrote: »

Assuming we exclude professional investors who I would guess aren't following MSE for advice on the property market, why would anyone else buying a house worry about what the price had done in the few months following their purchase?

You don't (or shouldn't) even buy shares without looking at a minimum 5 year or so period of holding on to them, let alone a far less liquid purchase like a house.

Trying to "time the market" on a house purchase just isn't realistic for most people. Firstly, properly timing any market is generally more luck than judgment, and secondly real life has a habit of dictating people's actions. They buy a house at a particular time for all sorts of reasons, growing families, desire for stability, bad experiences with lettings, etc etc.

That was my experience, I'd finally had enough of renting in London and wanted a place of my own where I could settle down with my wife and newly born son. If I followed the advice on HPC I'd still be waiting for this big crash so that I could walk in an buy a place for cash, all the time laughing at the "sheeple". But that would also have meant spending the last year paying rent and watching the prices in the area I wanted to buy increase by another 24%.

If I'd done that I'd be feeling sick every day as I watched the place I was just able to afford then shoot out of reach. I'm absolutely sure I'd have ended up on HPC every day talking up the crash because frankly that would be all I had left to cling on to. The alternative would be having to accept that I'd royally messed up and that if I wanted to buy now I would have to drastically reduce my expectations (again!).

So, maybe the much talked about crash will actually happen. Maybe I'll watch the price drop by the 25% its apparently risen, and then keep on going. If it drops by about 45% I might even end up in negative equity.

On the plus side though, I'll still own a house and until I want to sell it, or until I'm forced to sell, the estimated value won't mean all that much really.

There will always be people who buy at a better time, and there will always be others who buy at a worse time. It isn't really worth obsessing about it. I might like to have bought my house for less but I got it for a price I was willing to pay, so I'll just get on with my life and everyone else can get on with theirs.

yes, it is a nice post.
my point is that we have recently seen a very sharp increase in prices with people competing to pay way over the asking price for any old piece of rubbish that comes on the market. and i have viewed some really awful houses that have had hordes of bomads fighting over who is going to pay the most. the example of the flat in shoreditch which people were queuing up to put in sealed bids on without even being allowed to view nicely sums up the madness.
if someone suggests that delaying a purchase until the madness dies down (as it now has) they are rounded on by the bulls and accused of being a HPCer.

ukcarper

But you are not buying now you are waiting for falls that may or may not come.

I bought my first house in early 1972 it was a new build on small estate by a local developer. When I first looked the houses were £5350 when I bought in April I paid£8000 this was at a time when guzumping was prominent and each release of new build was sold on the day of release. The house were £10,500 in the beginning of 1973 if I had not bought when I did it would have been some time before I could afford to buy.

wotsthat

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

i'm interested in a particular micro market so what 65% of the rest of the country is doing may not be entirely relevant.

You really should have thought about this and titled the thread 'I'm buying a house in Vernon Road and hoping prices have peaked'.

padington

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

i'm interested in a particular micro market so what 65% of the rest of the country is doing may not be entirely relevant.

That's a great strategy. Just don't feel you can use the findings from that strategy whilst commenting on the wider market with authority.