London Has Peaked

Bubble_and_Squeak

The_White_Horse wrote: »

you know what, in 1976 my parents paid £12k for our house. The next door neighbour paid £12.4k. What a fool!!!!!! He paid well over the odds. And when he sold it for £500k 30 years later, he was still resentful at paying so much over the odds for it - NOT.

The moral of this story is, whether you bought in April, August or will buy in December - in about 30 years time your property will be worth a lot more than you paid for it.

The end.

not necessarily.
how many japanese told the same story the 90s?
and in ireland 8 or so years on my cousins house is still worth around 30% less in nominal terms.
i think northern ireland has a similar situation.

Bubble_and_Squeak

MobileSaver wrote: »

First it was London, then Prime London and now it's just Vernon Road... keep digging that hole. :rotfl:

i think maybe the drop in foxtons share price is having a negative impact on hpi around vernon road

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-48277688.html

The_White_Horse

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

not necessarily.
how many japanese told the same story the 90s?
and in ireland 8 or so years on my cousins house is still worth around 30% less in nominal terms.
i think northern ireland has a similar situation.

you cant compare them. I don't know too much about Japan, but Irelands property market really was insane. Made London look like a backwater.

I have family there, they are well in negative equity - as you say, probably 30% down on purchase price - but the price they paid was shocking and I wouldn't pay those prices in and around some of the better parts of North London.

Northern Ireland, and to an extent, Dublin don't have the economy and population to support the prices. I know Tokyo is rammed, but I don't know too much else about the problems they had/have.

Bubble_and_Squeak

The_White_Horse wrote: »

you cant compare them. I don't know too much about Japan, but Irelands property market really was insane. Made London look like a backwater.

I have family there, they are well in negative equity - as you say, probably 30% down on purchase price - but the price they paid was shocking and I wouldn't pay those prices in and around some of the better parts of North London.

Northern Ireland, and to an extent, Dublin don't have the economy and population to support the prices. I know Tokyo is rammed, but I don't know too much else about the problems they had/have.

i'm no expert on japan either but i'm assuming their problem is derived from a declining working age population leading to deflation. at the moment we're importing labour from poorer eu countries to cover this but it seems increasingly likely that we'll leave the eu in the next five years or so.
if this happens we'll have a period of adjustment in the short to medium term so a sharp decline in gdp is highly likely. in the longer term we'll have a decline in the working age population.
add to that eurozone deflation.
so a japan style deflation period is possible.

MobileSaver

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

were the russian oligarchs and chinese investors buying on a 2 year fixed?

I've no idea but that doesn't change the fact that your assertion "London has a high percentage of cash buyers" was simply wrong (unsurprising really as most of your assertions are false and don't stand up to any scrutiny.)

In_For_A_Penny_2

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

not necessarily.
how many japanese told the same story the 90s?
and in ireland 8 or so years on my cousins house is still worth around 30% less in nominal terms.
i think northern ireland has a similar situation.

Ireland (and N.Ireland) property prices rose to insane levels on the back of speculation (greed) by many who didn't need a place to live and a resulting panic and over stretching by those who did thus pushing the whole country into genuine bubble territory.

I think London has a very different population and economic make-up, I don't know how much speculation is built into the London housing market but doubt it will ever experience the house price falls seen in Ireland.

Don't know enough about Japan to comment on that situation.

Bubble_and_Squeak

MobileSaver wrote: »

I've no idea but that doesn't change the fact that your assertion "London has a high percentage of cash buyers" was simply wrong (unsurprising really as most of your assertions are false and don't stand up to any scrutiny.)

well, what are the figures?

Bubble_and_Squeak

In_For_A_Penny wrote: »

Ireland (and N.Ireland) property prices rose to insane levels on the back of speculation (greed) by many who didn't need a place to live and a resulting panic and over stretching by those who did thus pushing the whole country into genuine bubble territory.

I think London has a very different population and economic make-up, I don't know how much speculation is built into the London housing market but doubt it will ever experience the house price falls seen in Ireland.

Don't know enough about Japan to comment on that situation.

prices for new builds in london are actually insane eg flats (marketed as 'apartments') for around £1m in stratford. i don't know how this madness compares to ireland but i would guess its mostly foreign investors speculating on future hpi.
for the reasons i mentioned above london population growth is not a forgone conclusion. leaving the eu will certainly have an impact.

MobileSaver

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

well, what are the figures?

Less than a quarter of purchases in London are cash buyers compared to cash buyers accounting for 40% in the South West.

Bubble_and_Squeak

MobileSaver wrote: »

Less than a quarter of purchases in London are cash buyers compared to cash buyers accounting for 40% in the South West.

i thought it was around 35% for london with the average for the rest of the country being around 20%.
i suspect you choose the southwest because it has the highest rate for cash purchases but i can't be bothered to search for the figures.