London Has Peaked

Bubble_and_Squeak

pwllbwdr wrote: »

OK, so you are index linking house prices. Is that the new definition of what a peak is?

As regard the yoy rate, so what? A peak in yoy change isn't necessarily a peak at all.

the 7% rise in october on rightmove is a bit strange
londons top performer was islington at 8.7%
all the rest are sub 7% increases, with the exception of brent and tower hamlets, which are both negative.
how is london as a whole 7%?

Generali

Joeskeppi wrote: »

A house painted in Arsenal colours in Tottenham. Probably won't ever sell!

Fair chance it'll 'go on fire' at some point.

wotsthat

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-31767471.html

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-42073141.html

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-32497245.html

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-29808390.html

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-32025228.html

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-32568900.html

Yes, I saw those.

Of the 396 houses currently for sale in E17 16 of them are up for £300k or less. I don't see how your list adds to the evidence of an April peak.

Are you still talking about an April peak by the way or is this a shift to the more widely accepted HPC position of a peak being either being today or just around the corner?

That field where your goalposts are must be starting to look like a ploughed field.

Bubble_and_Squeak

wotsthat wrote: »

Yes, I saw those.

Of the 396 houses currently for sale in E17 16 of them are up for £300k or less. I don't see how your list adds to the evidence of an April peak.

Are you still talking about an April peak by the way or is this a shift to the more widely accepted HPC position of a peak being either being today or just around the corner?

That field where your goalposts are must be starting to look like a ploughed field.

no, i think i called it 3 days early
i think the peak was in may

danothy

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

no, i think i called it 3 days early
i think the peak was in may

April was not three days long. Unless you have a Rightmove link that suggests otherwise?

MobileSaver

MobileSaver wrote: »

"The Office for National Statistics (ONS) is the UK’s largest independent producer of official statistics and is the recognised national statistical institute for the UK."

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

didn't these guys miscount £11,000,000,000 of government tax revenue last month?

I know you like to deflect difficult questions so here's a simple yes/no question for you.

Do you believe that the ONS figures are fundamentally materially wrong?

I.e. no-one would suggest that any such data would be 100% accurate, there will always be some errors but any errors are statistically insignificant.

wotsthat

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

the 7% rise in october on rightmove is a bit strange
londons top performer was islington at 8.7%
all the rest are sub 7% increases, with the exception of brent and tower hamlets, which are both negative.
how is london as a whole 7%?

It's not an average of the average. It's a weighted average.

The average London property has gone from £558k to £597k in a month = 7%.

i.e. the average property has increased it's price by £39k. The average Kensington & Chelsea 'only' went up by 3.4% but that's £72k so above the average nominal increase.

Unless there's a mistake then it's down to the weighting of the properties they're listing.

wotsthat

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

no, i think i called it 3 days early
i think the peak was in may

Are you going to reveal what it's the peak of this time?

System

Peak of seasonally adjusted real term prices on houses with a shed in the garden where the owner's name is Dave.

chucknorris

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

looks like it didn't sell, chucks
open days ain't what they used to be
how much would you pay?

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-48537845.html

I don't know, I was (am?) trying to be sensible and diversifying my portfolio by not buying more property, but I'm only just managing to resist. I don't think that I could buy it, because my situation means that I would only buy it if I thought that I got very good value. I would probably pay £325k for it, which would give me at least a 5% yield, but I expect it to go for more than that. But another problem is that I would want to buy it for cash rather than with a mortgage, and £325k plus fees etc. would use up most of my cash, although my wife said that she might consider coming in for a third share, in which case that would probably swing it for me.