London Has Peaked

Bubble_and_Squeak

wotsthat wrote: »

Nah. If you thought prices were reasonable last October you would've bought. Today you'd be throwing women and children behind you to get last October's prices.



Another symptom - my landlord makes no money.

You're misleading yourself if that's how you look at it. A years rent is a years rent - what your landlord does with it is neither here nor there.

my landlord will be dead by the time he gets in rent what he could have got by selling in april on this property

wotsthat

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

a house on the street i live on has had £75k cut off the asking price
by your logic i've "saved" 8 years rent by not buying it 2 months ago

Your method of valuing houses is demonstrably flawed. If it's anything like all the other examples you've posted it'll set a new sold price record for the street.

wotsthat

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

my landlord will be dead by the time he gets in rent what he could have got by selling in april on this property

Unless he sells today of course because prices are higher than April.

Bubble_and_Squeak

wotsthat wrote: »

Unless he sells today of course because prices are higher than April.

only in your head

Bubble_and_Squeak

wotsthat wrote: »

Your method of valuing houses is demonstrably flawed. If it's anything like all the other examples you've posted it'll set a new sold price record for the street.

this thread is about a london peak, not renting.
the overwhelming evidence is that london has peaked.
furthermore, there is little prospect of prices rising until more government intervention, which wont come until after the next election.

kwmlondon

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

this thread is about a london peak, not renting.
the overwhelming evidence is that london has peaked.
furthermore, there is little prospect of prices rising until more government intervention, which wont come until after the next election.

My gut feeling is that it would take a major event to trigger a major change, the kind of unpredictable event that isn't on our horizon at the moment, e.g. a crash in Brazil, Estonian central bank going bankrupt, something like that which could either end up with more money flowing in to "safe" property in London, pushing prices so high the numbers cant fit on estate agent's websites, or the pound crashing and people all sell up here. It's that unpredictable, but only really likely as a result of something the market doing something the market hasn't thought of.

Until then it seems to me that prices are going to plateau in London, maybe some small fluctuations, as people still need to live here.

Sure, prices may seem ludicrous but people can still manage to find the money and are still buying.

Maybe when interest rates start to rise we'll see a change, but the difference between paying £3,500 a month for your mortgage and £3,700 won't put may people off.

That's my opinion anyway.

Bubble_and_Squeak

kwmlondon wrote: »

My gut feeling is that it would take a major event to trigger a major change, the kind of unpredictable event that isn't on our horizon at the moment, e.g. a crash in Brazil, Estonian central bank going bankrupt, something like that which could either end up with more money flowing in to "safe" property in London, pushing prices so high the numbers cant fit on estate agent's websites, or the pound crashing and people all sell up here. It's that unpredictable, but only really likely as a result of something the market doing something the market hasn't thought of.

Until then it seems to me that prices are going to plateau in London, maybe some small fluctuations, as people still need to live here.

Sure, prices may seem ludicrous but people can still manage to find the money and are still buying.

Maybe when interest rates start to rise we'll see a change, but the difference between paying £3,500 a month for your mortgage and £3,700 won't put may people off.

That's my opinion anyway.

could be ebola
international lockdown causing economic collapse

The_White_Horse

i haven't bothered reading any of the thread, but what i don't understand is this. If you rent for 25 years and pay an average of £2500 a month during that period (obviously rent in 20 yrs time will be more than it is now) - you will have paid approx £750,000 and have nothing at the end of it.

Meanwhile, if you buy a house now, for £350,000 - at the end of 25 years, you will own the house and even if prices stay the same, you will have paid approx £520,000. BUT, you now have a house to live in rent free forever.

I can't see how renting can be better over the long term - even if prices utterly collapse.

The_White_Horse

and also, what does "london has peaked" mean???? are you saying that prices in London will NEVER get higher than they are now? This is it - they have peaked and will NEVER EVER get higher? Or do you mean they have just plateued for now?

Bubble_and_Squeak

The_White_Horse wrote: »

and also, what does "london has peaked" mean???? are you saying that prices in London will NEVER get higher than they are now? This is it - they have peaked and will NEVER EVER get higher? Or do you mean they have just plateued for now?

hahaha no i think at some point in the future house prices in london will be higher.
i called the top as april because of MMR. (should have really called it as may because MMR came in i think on 28th april).