London Has Peaked

Bubble_and_Squeak

MobileSaver wrote: »

A tiny number of people like Brit1234, BubbleAndSqueak and the HPC crowd will claim to be on strike but the reality is (as Joeskeppi pointed out) that they simply can't afford what they want and aren't about to admit that they made the wrong decision.

The majority of people will take a much more pragmatic approach because they want their own place, want to start a family, be nearer to work or whatever and will do what it takes to achieve that.

What the HPCers on here seem to forget is that most people are buying a home not a house; somewhere to call their own where they can do pretty much what they want when they want. They're not that interested in whether it's worth a few percent more in six months or for that matter a few percent less, house buying for most is an emotional decision dictated by human needs and not a purely financial choice.

who can actually afford what they want?

do you not think that "going in strike" in april was a pragmatic approach given that since then the amount of properties on the market has almost doubled?

wotsthat

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

chinas bubble bursting
cold war part 2
eurozone deflation
massive uk debt mountain
interest rate rises (here and in the US)
lending restrictions
1984 style perpetual war in the middle east
labour government
to name but a few

Just googled 'uk house prices tipping point' - put in a date range and you'll find people calling the top year after year. Usually justified with a list of reasons not dissimilar to yours.

Maybe your list is the one true list and, this time, it's on.

More likely we're wasting our time talking about the effects of randomness on things we can't possibly forecast with any accuracy.

Bubble_and_Squeak

wotsthat wrote: »

Just googled 'uk house prices tipping point' - put in a date range and you'll find people calling the top year after year. Usually justified with a list of reasons not dissimilar to yours.

Maybe your list is the one true list and, this time, it's on.

More likely we're wasting our time talking about the effects of randomness on things we can't possibly forecast with any accuracy.

i think the main difference this time is that prices are so high that no normal person can afford to buy.
although, i thought that at the last peak...

lisyloo

personally, i'd rather pay extra and live 10 mins walk from work rather than commute from outside london every day

But what about going "up North" or to provence or the Carribean?
i.e. is there a point at which the other options become attractive?

Personally for us DH has a career which is tied to London, but I still wonder about the hairdressers, manicurists, sainsburys workers.

Perhaps there is an inexhaustible supply of foreign workers prepared to live in cramped conditions because it's still miles better than when they came from.
There must be still a lot of medium paid indigenous office workers doing horrible commutes though? The sort of people that you see rammed on the tube everyday. I'm sure they aren't all highly paid high flyers.

Bubble_and_Squeak

lisyloo wrote: »

But what about going "up North" or to provence or the Carribean?
i.e. is there a point at which the other options become attractive?

Personally for us DH has a career which is tied to London, but I still wonder about the hairdressers, manicurists, sainsburys workers.

Perhaps there is an inexhaustible supply of foreign workers prepared to live in cramped conditions because it's still miles better than when they came from.
There must be still a lot of medium paid indigenous office workers doing horrible commutes though? The sort of people that you see rammed on the tube everyday. I'm sure they aren't all highly paid high flyers.

personally, only retirement to my native land will draw me away from london. as a bubble and squeak greek i feel comfortable in the multiculturalism of london. i have friends and acquaintances who have had bad experiences up north. i suspect this will only get worse with the rise of ukip.

MobileSaver

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

do you not think that "going in strike" in april was a pragmatic approach given that since then the amount of properties on the market has almost doubled?

Um, no, I don't think you know what pragmatic means...

Regardless of your reasoning, you were simply wrong as prices are higher now than they were in April and significantly higher than they were when you were "actively looking to buy" late last year.

lisyloo

you were simply wrong as prices are higher now

I don't thikn you can call this one yet.
Sep 14 might be higher than April 14, but April 2015 mkight be lower.
It might be a bad call, it might not.
I don't see how you can say either way at the moment.

MobileSaver

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

i'm calling April as the peak of the london property price bubble.

lisyloo wrote: »

I don't think you can call this one yet.
I don't see how you can say either way at the moment.

The OP called April as the peak, prices have since gone higher so it is indisputable that he was wrong!

padington

Is the trend to move into London or move out ?

Are we historically low or high when it comes to the ammount of people living in a London house ?

Is it possible people will square wanting the best jobs and culture with sharing more?

Bubble_and_Squeak

MobileSaver wrote: »

The OP called April as the peak, prices have since gone higher so it is indisputable that he was wrong!

rightmove peak was in may
i believe prime london peak was sometime in the first quarter
time on the market has increased since april
supply has increased since april
demand is now lower than april
percentage of asking price achieved has fallen since april
so it really depends how you define a peak