London Has Peaked

ukcarper

A house in my road that went under offer in April showed up on land registry in June.

danothy

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

in one instance an offer was made in october 2013 for x amount. the person selling accepted the offer and needed to find a property in order to downsize. by the time that the person found a property, had on offer accepted etc and the sale of the house they were selling completed 10 months had elapsed. therefore, the price that shows up on the LR figures was actually agreed 10 months ago. this is what i mean by lagging.

And I am saying that the price that was 'actually agreed' was actually agreed at exchange of contracts. My money is on the 'lag' between exchange and completion not being 10 months.

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

in another instance a similar scenario to the one above played out but this time it took 14 weeks. therefore the price that shows up on the LR figures was agreed 14 weeks ago, not on the date the LR actually shows it to be.

I would also bet that exchange of contracts, when the price was actually agreed, was not 14 weeks before completion in this case.

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

same goes for my cash buying colleague but in this instance it took 10 weeks.
as we can see the LR figures don't actually represent agreed sale prices for a particular month. they reflect a price that was agreed several months prior.

No, we can see that you don't know the difference between a non binding offer that can be walked away from or altered and exchange of contracts which constitute a binding offer.

Libber

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

if you dig up some more old posts you'll find that i also said that i don't know what kind of time lag there is between a sale being agreed and it actually showing up as sold on LR. a friend of mine agreed a price that took 10 months to complete, a colleague took 14 weeks another (cash buyer) colleague took 10 weeks.
another old post quotes a financial website that says the london LR figures for july are skewed by high end purchased. when stripped out hpi for london was 1.5%.

OK, but this brings us back to my earlier question - you started this thread by claiming that London prices peaked in April. What would you accept as evidence disproving your claim now that you've discarded your original benchmark of August's LR data? Are you just going to keep changing your position until something happens that you like?

Jack_Johnson_the_acorn

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

in one instance an offer was made in october 2013 for x amount. the person selling accepted the offer and needed to find a property in order to downsize. by the time that the person found a property, had on offer accepted etc and the sale of the house they were selling completed 10 months had elapsed. therefore, the price that shows up on the LR figures was actually agreed 10 months ago. this is what i mean by lagging.
in another instance a similar scenario to the one above played out but this time it took 14 weeks. therefore the price that shows up on the LR figures was agreed 14 weeks ago, not on the date the LR actually shows it to be.
same goes for my cash buying colleague but in this instance it took 10 weeks.
as we can see the LR figures don't actually represent agreed sale prices for a particular month. they reflect a price that was agreed several months prior.

I've returned solely to laugh at your desperation:rotfl:

AndyGuil

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

how do you know that?
(genuine question)

It was discussed in detail a few weeks back. 5:27 has answered it. 95% are within 3 months.

officeuk

There seems to be a lot of people that are very happy that house prices have gone up. Very sad.

I feel very sorry for house buyers of the future.

Libber

officeuk wrote: »

There seems to be a lot of people that are very happy that house prices have gone up. Very sad.

I feel very sorry for house buyers of the future.

I don't think that anyone here is necessarily happy or unhappy about prices going up, we're just discussing the OP's contention that London house prices peaked in April. Pointing out the mismatch between the OP's position and the available evidence isn't the same thing as being happy.

Bubble_and_Squeak

asking prices haven't moved since april (they're down according to rightmove)
supply is about a third up since april
the percentage of the asking price achieved has fallen since april
time on the market has increased since april

Libber

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

asking prices haven't moved since april (they're down according to rightmove)
supply is about a third up since april
the percentage of the asking price achieved has fallen since april
time on the market has increased since april

OK, great, but your contention isn't about asking prices, supply, or time on the market. It's about sold prices, which have almost certainly increased since April.

I'll ask you again: what would you accept as evidence proving that your claim is wrong now that your original benchmark of the August 2014 LR release has failed you?

wotsthat

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

asking prices haven't moved since april (they're down according to rightmove)
supply is about a third up since april
the percentage of the asking price achieved has fallen since april
time on the market has increased since april

..and sold prices have gone up.

You're not alone in this befuddlement. On HPC the guy who started the 'is prime London crashing?' thread in January is still providing evidence, as we head towards October, to support this. He doesn't seem to see the irony of a 10 month housing crash where prices have gone up by double digit percentages.