London Has Peaked

System

Don't ruin it

wotsthat

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

indeed, record low interest rates, funding for lending and H2B pushed prices to all time highs. back to my original question:
where will the money come from to sustain these high prices?

You're the one that's pretending the 'stow is in freefall - where's all the money gone?

From what I see just on this forum there are plenty of people who think London is too expensive but simply couldn't contemplate living anywhere else.

Then there are people like you waiting to leap in if there's a price crash to levels not seen seen since as long ago as March.

The money's there and so is the demand - don't worry about that.

There's some hope though. Hometrack for September said London was the only region that crashed in price - down 0.1%.

chucknorris

wotsthat wrote: »

The wise owls on HPC were asking this very same question and they then watched with bemusement as London prices continued to hit new all time highs.

I think that prices are on an upward climb, but they shot up quickly in a very short time, so they'll stagnate (even dip) for a while before creeping up again.

Jason74

I'd agree with that CN. It really is showing all the signs of a market that's pausing for breath after a period of rapid rises. In that sense, I think that the OPs comment that "London has peaked" is probably true , at least for now. I can only really speak for my own area, but I really can't see prices being meaningfully higher than they are today in a years time, and Today's Hometrack data does seem to support that view.

But the question is of course, what happens next. I think Wotsthhat is also about right when he says that the demand is there to support prices at something close to current prices, so I can't see a big crash either. Probably stagnation or a small drop over the next year or two, with moderate rises afterwards.

I actually think London needs a major correction (and yes, I am aware ofr all the problems that go with that, but think that the problems of current housing costs are worse, especially in the long term) . Little chance o9f it happening though imho.

wotsthat

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

indeed, record low interest rates, funding for lending and H2B pushed prices to all time highs. back to my original question:
where will the money come from to sustain these high prices?

Land Reg for August out today too. London up 2.7% MoM and 21.6% YoY.

Where's the money coming from?

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/august-2014-market-trend-data

AndyGuil

wotsthat wrote: »

Land Reg for August out today too. London up 2.7% MoM and 21.6% YoY.

Where's the money coming from?

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/august-2014-market-trend-data

The average loan to salary ratio for a buyer is similar to the rest of the UK. Additionally London has the lowest debt to value in the UK so there is a lot of potential in the market. There is a lot of desirability to live in London which has always been present.

AndyGuil

NorthFin wrote: »

Yes I am hearing this from another place.

Cant find anything concrete yet, anybody else have uptodate info?

Sounds desperate. If they are worried about London getting overheated they shouldnt have let it get so overvalued in the first place.

These restrictions make no difference in London as A. Mortgage to salary ratios are comparable with the rest of the UK, B. Debt to value is the lowest in the UK and C. There are a lot of cash sales (which aren't foreign driven unless you are looking at a mansion in Kensington).

Libber

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

if land registry is down in july for london i'd say its a bit early than i predicted
i'm thinking august

Sorry to dig up an old post, but we now have the land registry data for August in London and it's showing an increase of 2.7%. Do you now accept that you were wrong about London having peaked in April?

System

Now we are in for a couple of pages about how the stats are manipulated.

theEnd

Really shocked by the latest LR figures. Expected to see large drops by now.