London Has Peaked

ukcarper

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

the old bomad-hand-me-down-on-the-cheap trick no doubt

You always have an excuse for cheaper sold prices whilst the more expensive offer conclusive proof prices are falling why don't you just accept your system is floored.

Bubble_and_Squeak

ukcarper wrote: »

You always have an excuse for cheaper sold prices whilst the more expensive offer conclusive proof prices are falling why don't you just accept your system is floored.

how else would you explain a house in walthamstow selling so far below the market rate? had that house been marketed through the normal channels at that stage of the bubble it would've recieved about 50 sealed bids.

ukcarper

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

how else would you explain a house in walthamstow selling so far below the market rate? had that house been marketed through the normal channels at that stage of the bubble it would've recieved about 50 sealed bids.

Only the odd link shows that, most of the links you post show a different type of house.

AndyGuil

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/uk-housing-market-emerges-unscathed-summer-slowdown-1465453

Explains why I have been getting notes through the post asking to sell recently.

Jason74

AndyGuil wrote: »

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/uk-housing-market-emerges-unscathed-summer-slowdown-1465453

Explains why I have been getting notes through the post asking to sell recently.

Accross the Uk as a whole, I would agree with this. But in London I just can't see it at the moment. To be fair, todays Rightmove data would agree with you (and unlike you, I acknowledge relevant data whether it supports my argument or not) even in a London context. But all the time that virtually nothing is actually selling, the conclusion has to be that Agents are pricing for an autumn bounce (as they should as representatives of the seller) that isn't actually happening on the ground.

Of course, if the glut of properties that has built up starts falling away in a meaningful way, then that conclusion will change, as the only rational approach to anything is to adjust opinions based on the facts. But at the moment, all I'm seeing are asking prices that are not being met, with an increasing number of reductions as reality bites. All the time that sitauation persists, talk of the summer lul being over is just a bit silly. Naturally, the next couple of Months will tell us a lot on this score though.

AndyGuil

Jason74 wrote: »

Accross the Uk as a whole, I would agree with this. But in London I just can't see it at the moment. To be fair, todays Rightmove data would agree with you (and unlike you, I acknowledge relevant data whether it supports my argument or not) even in a London context. But all the time that virtually nothing is actually selling, the conclusion has to be that Agents are pricing for an autumn bounce (as they should as representatives of the seller) that isn't actually happening on the ground.

Of course, if the glut of properties that has built up starts falling away in a meaningful way, then that conclusion will change, as the only rational approach to anything is to adjust opinions based on the facts. But at the moment, all I'm seeing are asking prices that are not being met, with an increasing number of reductions as reality bites. All the time that sitauation persists, talk of the summer lul being over is just a bit silly. Naturally, the next couple of Months will tell us a lot on this score though.

Confuse asking prices for selling prices at your peril. Properties that actually sell are only priced a few percent above the selling price. In reality this makes the over priced properties completely irrelevant as they are always present and often overblown with lots of volatility. Real selling prices are rising and we will sit here again in 3 months time and look back. Just like we can already look back 3 months now to when the harping was already going on and see that in reality the prices rose.

wotsthat

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

the old bomad-hand-me-down-on-the-cheap trick no doubt

Rightmove out today. Up 0.9% MoM for the UK. +3.9% Haringey & +2.2% for Waltham Forest.

That Property Bee app thing will be really handy when you're viewing a property to see if the vendor has reduced/ increased the asking price. However, as a tool to prove there's a big correction underway it's completely useless.

No doubt it's another trick of some sort.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/house-price-index

padington

wotsthat wrote: »

Rightmove out today. Up 0.9% MoM for the UK. +3.9% Haringey & +2.2% for Waltham Forest.

That Property Bee app thing will be really handy when you're viewing a property to see if the vendor has reduced/ increased the asking price. However, as a tool to prove there's a big correction underway it's completely useless.

No doubt it's another trick of some sort.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/house-price-index

3.9% for haringey, that's suggesting a serious trajectory for the run up to Christmas. Wow.

Saying that it's only asking prices.

Jason74

AndyGuil wrote: »

Confuse asking prices for selling prices at your peril. Properties that actually sell are only priced a few percent above the selling price. In reality this makes the over priced properties completely irrelevant as they are always present and often overblown with lots of volatility. Real selling prices are rising and we will sit here again in 3 months time and look back. Just like we can already look back 3 months now to when the harping was already going on and see that in reality the prices rose.

I'm not confusing anything. I'll break this down piece by piece so there can be no room for confusion

1) I am well aware that there is volatility in asking prices, and that the "kite flyers" are of no relevance to actual selling prices

2) I am saying very specifically that selling prices are not rising in my area. Having risen at a breakneck pace for over a year, they have effectively stalled, and are if anything, dropping back slightly.

3) The evidence for this is that very little is selling at present, and those properties that do sell, are invariably set at an asking price similar or lower than previous sold prices. As such, unless those properties are attracting a bidding war and going over asking (unlikely imho), then their prices can't be higher than previous sold prices.

4) Price reductions are increasingly common, again, especially at the more expensive end of the local market

5) Unsurprisinglly in the context of "3" above, stock is continuing to build, and with every week that goes by at peresent, buyers have more choice than the week before. Perhaps surprisingly, this is more prevailent with larger properties than with flats.

5) Given 3 & 4 above, the increase in asking prices recorded on Rightmove this Month is a surprise. It may prove to be the start of a new round of prices, or it could be agents / vendors making an ultimately futile atempt to move the market further forward. My money is on the second (and as you yourself point out, asking and selling prices are not the same thing), but it appears unlike your good self, I am happy to revise this view should the evidence suggest otherwise.

I hope I make myself clear with this. Like I say, no confusion at all, just a view based on the evidence in front of me. . . . .and if the evidence changes, so will the view.

Bubble_and_Squeak

and all the while supply continues to increase.
the 0.9% increase in london will be more than offset by the inevitable price cuts.
and put it in the context of the last 3 months.
like i've said many times before we now have falling asking prices and rising supply. do the math.