London Has Peaked

lukeh23

padington wrote: »

A bubble is a rubbish metaphor for something that has steadily increased in value over many many years. Bubbles go pop. They disappear. Houses in London never just disapeer

No its not. A bubble is an overinflated asset. It having physical state has zlich to do with it.

Yes they don't disapeer, but their value is more determined by a speculative prediction it will rise, rather then its intrinsic value as somewhere to live and make a home.

Thats why we are seeing homes built in the alley between two houses going for 250k

padington

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

so, london is not in a bubble
try telzling that to the poor bomad who paid £470k for a victorian terrace in a horrible part of walthamstow only to find the house down the road couldn't sell for £400k a couple of months later

I appreciate you want to buy in walthamstow and are hoping the prices come down but incessantly plugging this idea on a forum isn't going to do that. You would be better off teaming up with others and putting in a joint mortgage application for something you can afford.

Wait until Scotland has decided it's fate though because a yes vote could change everything.

padington

lukeh23 wrote: »

No its not. Its an overinflated asset. It having physical state has zlich to do with it. No they don't disapeer, but their value is more determined by a speculative rise, then more about its intrinsic value.

I thought houses were ultimately determined by average wage ratio's? Oh well, that's the bears argument torn up.

Of course the most fashionable city in the world is determined partly by speculation. It's like the art market but even more buoyant across the board because of so much finance is available to play the field and because of a possible yield available.

That speculation creates a high demand which reduces the supply.

It's an unfair game, those sitting on the sidelines could end up never able to buy in London. Your best chance to stop this from becoming a reality is doing your location homework and buying a place you can afford with friends, fairly quickly.

It's possible you could sit things out and hope Labour change the game for first time buyers and hope for a dip. I doubt that's the best strategy for you though because of where in the cycle we are.

Bubble_and_Squeak

padington wrote: »

I appreciate you want to buy in walthamstow and are hoping the prices come down but incessantly plugging this idea on a forum isn't going to do that. You would be better off teaming up with others and putting in a joint mortgage application for something you can afford.

Wait until Scotland has decided it's fate though because a yes vote could change everything.

i want to buy in stratford, not walthamstow.
in april my budget would only extend as far as a flat.
now i can afford a freehold 2 up 2 down house is a reasonable condtion in stratford
with supply still increasing i fully expect downward pressure on prices to continue.
no doubt in april you would have said buy now because prices will keep going up and you'll miss out

padington

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

i want to buy in stratford, not walthamstow.
in april my budget would only extend as far as a flat.
now i can afford a freehold 2 up 2 down house is a reasonable condtion in stratford
with supply still increasing i fully expect downward pressure on prices to continue.
no doubt in april you would have said buy now because prices will keep going up and you'll miss out

Stratford up 2.09 % in last three months ...

http://www.zoopla.co.uk/house-prices/london/stratford/

... And up 8.2 % in last six months.

http://www.zoopla.co.uk/house-prices/london/stratford/

... And zoopla underestimates more than overestimates ..

AndyGuil

I think supply is dropping off again. I have had three notes through my letter box this week asking if I would like to sell my property.

Bubble_and_Squeak

144 entries for houses in E15 today
142 last weekend, 140 the weekend before, 139 the weekend before that, 132, 126, 126, 119, 123, 127, 120, 115, 118, 109, 97, 83, 73, 74, 62 in late May.
of the 62 in late May 7 price increases 7 price reductions
of the 144 today 6 price increases 44 price reductions.

mayonnaise

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

144 entries for houses in E15 today
142 last weekend, 140 the weekend before, 139 the weekend before that, 132, 126, 126, 119, 123, 127, 120, 115, 118, 109, 97, 83, 73, 74, 62 in late May.

You having been tracking entries for E15 for the past 20 weekends.

Okay.

Bubble_and_Squeak

mayonnaise wrote: »

You having been tracking entries for E15 for the past 20 weekends.

Okay.

of course
i'm not going to dole out £300,000 without researching the market

wotsthat

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

of course
i'm not going to dole out £300,000 without researching the market

5 months of rent and prices are no lower.

Of course 20 weekends ago was when you hit the big bear reset button. You're a year in in reality so a years rent and prices are quite a ways up.