London Has Peaked

Bubble_and_Squeak

TheBlueHorse wrote: »

i bought a house last year for 550k. the house opposite sold last week for 690k. even if it were to "crash" back down by 10% you'd still be worse off for having waited.

woman at work has "sold" the same house in walthamstow several times in the last 6 months or so
each time the sale falls through it comes back on at a higher price

purch

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

i'm calling April as the peak of the london property price bubble.

Not long to go now :eek: :rotfl:

mayonnaise

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

interesting times, bulls

Very interesting times.
There's another thread on here announcing the "Great Unwinding".
I just hope it won't be another damp squib like that elusive April 2014 peak.

MFW_ASAP

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

hey bulls
just got back
hows the bubble going?

I'd be interested in hearing your analysis on why you think a correction in London will occur this year?

Bubble_and_Squeak

MFW_ASAP wrote: »

I'd be interested in hearing your analysis on why you think a correction in London will occur this year?

looks like it already happened in central london last year
ripple, maybe?

from propertywire:
"The index shows that in January 2015, landlords with a property in Walworth recorded a negative real % yield of 11.3%..."
i wonder if negative real yields will spread
highly likely, considering the scale of construction currently taking place in london

westernpromise

How long have you been wrong about this for?

The oldest crasher I have come across was someone in a newsgroup in 1996 (still viewable in Google) declaring that prices hadn't fallen far enough yet and another 90% fall was likely. This is in 1996 remember. He kept it up for a good 10 years.

So everyone who ignored him and bought is now 19 years through a 25 year mortgage term and almost owns what he's waited 19 years not to buy. It will cost him 300% of the 1996 price and while he's been paying rent owners have been paying mortgage rates of 2%.

Just curious really - does this not severely shake your confidence in your own judgement? If I got something this important so exactly wrong for 19 years I'd question my intelligence.

Perhaps this is why HPC is such a forlorn place. Anger, entitlement, absence of self awareness. Toxic mix.

Bubble_and_Squeak

westernpromise wrote: »

How long have you been wrong about this for?

The oldest crasher I have come across was someone in a newsgroup in 1996 (still viewable in Google) declaring that prices hadn't fallen far enough yet and another 90% fall was likely. This is in 1996 remember. He kept it up for a good 10 years.

So everyone who ignored him and bought is now 19 years through a 25 year mortgage term and almost owns what he's waited 19 years not to buy. It will cost him 300% of the 1996 price and while he's been paying rent owners have been paying mortgage rates of 2%.

Just curious really - does this not severely shake your confidence in your own judgement? If I got something this important so exactly wrong for 19 years I'd question my intelligence.

Perhaps this is why HPC is such a forlorn place. Anger, entitlement, absence of self awareness. Toxic mix.

i said from the outset that i would buy between january-election 2015 regardless of what the market is doing so comparing me to a 19 year waiter is slightly off key, no?
in terms of raw price data the bubble is rolling on (indeed, bubbles do often reach epic proportions before the burst) but the market is clearly weaker now than it was in april 2014- demand down, mortgage lending down, supply up

padington

My place has gone up 72.5% in three years. Glad I didn't listen to the main crashists who seem to all go quiet when one of them goes on
holiday.

Bubble_and_Squeak

padington wrote: »

My place has gone up 72.5% in three years. Glad I didn't listen to the main crashists who seem to all go quiet when one of them goes on
holiday.

did your neighbour sell yet?

Bubble_and_Squeak

padington wrote: »

My place has gone up 72.5% in three years. Glad I didn't listen to the main crashists who seem to all go quiet when one of them goes on
holiday.

btw, i'm not a crashist
i'm a correctionist