Mortgage Lending Rising Again

Bubble_and_Squeak

AndyGuil wrote: »

Firstly rightmove isn't all of market, it depends highly on how many properties have been listed through them. Secondly last year wasn't typical but still showed usual trends (just more on the extreme). Thirdly we are way off pre-recession volumes.

your first point suggests that supply is actually higher than i thought

your second year is suggesting that we are currently in a typical year?

your third point is irrelevant with regards to prices. it only takes a small number of buyers/sellers to move the market

Bubble_and_Squeak

Jason74 wrote: »

I'm asking because you have an unusually strident bullish tone. Amost the bull equivelant of some of our visitors from HPC. There's a lot of commentary / evidence out there that the London market is undergoing something more than seasonal fluctuations (how much more remains to be seen). As an example, I previously linkde to a Hometrack report stating explicitly that the current climate was "more than a seasonal slowdown", and this was completely ignored.

In terms of concrete examples, I can provide a several examples of houses that have gone sold STC on rightmove in my area, have come back on, failed to re sell, and are now still sitting on the market at prices lower than the previous sale agreed prices. I would probably agree with you that there isn't a fall in actual sold prices (yet at least, we'll see what the next few Months bring there), but in my area, there most certainly is a drop off in sale agreed prices. This wont show up on any index, but you'll see it if you follow a particular local market.

You seem to completely ignore this, much as our HPC visitors ignore the factors causing upwards pressure on prices. You're clearly an intelligent chap, so I just don't get why you are taking this approach. I can only assume that your living is somehow tied up in the health of the market (either through your job or investments), as there isn't another explanation that makes sense to me.

indeed, some of the posters on this site are the polar opposite of those on HPC. complete and utter denial. its like two religions arguing over who has the best god

AndyGuil

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

your first point suggests that supply is actually higher than i thought

your second year is suggesting that we are currently in a typical year?

your third point is irrelevant with regards to prices. it only takes a small number of buyers/sellers to move the market

House prices are not sensitive to small volumes at all. We have seen volumes all over the place for the last few years and prices are at least as high as they were at the last peak.

Use land registry for volumes that gives you a better idea as it is whole of market. We have less volume now than we did pre-recession.

Bubble_and_Squeak

wotsthat wrote: »

How much Chinese and Russian has exited? Are the properties that are, apparently, being abandoned the type that would be typically purchased with a mortgage anyway?

i don't know figures but we are currently in an escalating trade war with russia. china has just closed a money laundering loophole which enabled people to bypass limits to money leaving the country. also, their property bubble has just burst, although i have no idea how this will impact london.
this money was keeping the price of prime london and new builds artificially inflated. prime london is already falling in real terms. as for overpriced newbuilds i don't know. maybe you can prove me wrong with some out of date stats?

Bubble_and_Squeak

AndyGuil wrote: »

House prices are not sensitive to small volumes at all. We have seen volumes all over the place for the last few years and prices are at least as high as they were at the last peak.

Use land registry for volumes that gives you a better idea as it is whole of market. We have less volume now than we did pre-recession.

yes they are
we have a bubble in london on the back of historical low transactions
or am i wrong?

wotsthat

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

i don't know figures but we are currently in an escalating trade war with russia. china has just closed a money laundering loophole which enabled people to bypass limits to money leaving the country. also, their property bubble has just burst, although i have no idea how this will impact london.
this money was keeping the price of prime london and new builds artificially inflated. prime london is already falling in real terms. as for overpriced newbuilds i don't know. maybe you can prove me wrong with some out of date stats?

As you've said 'I don't know' three times in that post I'll assume you don't know and you're making an assertion built on cobbling together disparate pieces of other assertions to end, where else, but a housing crash.

I don't know either - that's why I asked you - you seem to know as little as I do on the subject.

Bubble_and_Squeak

wotsthat wrote: »

As you've said 'I don't know' three times in that post I'll assume you don't know and you're making an assertion built on cobbling together disparate pieces of other assertions to end, where else, but a housing crash.

I don't know either - that's why I asked you - you seem to know as little as I do on the subject.

you shouldn't get too bogged down with figures
two of the biggest sources of hot money into london property have now been curtailed. that is the significant fact here

wotsthat

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

you shouldn't get too bogged down with figures
two of the biggest sources of hot money into london property have now been curtailed. that is the significant fact here

Surely that fact can be backed up with some numbers.

Why should I take your word for it when you've failed to answer every other question I've asked?

Bubble_and_Squeak

wotsthat wrote: »

Surely that fact can be backed up with some numbers.

Why should I take your word for it when you've failed to answer every other question I've asked?

which facts would you like me to back up?
tell me and i'll do a quick google search

wotsthat

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

which facts would you like me to back up?
tell me and i'll do a quick google search

Shouldn't you have done a Google search before passing off your assertions as facts?