Mortgage Lending Rising Again

Bubble_and_Squeak

AndyGuil wrote: »

They normally do. Right from the start of the new year the number of properties increases. You get a peak around the middle of the year before it drops off before Christmas.

go to the market trends section of rightmove and do a search for E17
there is data for two years on marketed properties
compare this year with last year

Bubble_and_Squeak

wotsthat wrote: »

So it's not possible for both mortgage lending and prices to increase over the next year because prices have increased in Walthamstow?

mortgage lending by uk banks would have to increase manifold to plug the gap created by the exit of chinese and russian money
this is not going to happen

Bubble_and_Squeak

AndyGuil wrote: »

This is highly misaligned with the land registry and my own observations of the market. The statement isn't believable and wishful at best. Perhaps provide some examples and we can subject them to a review. Same properties on the same street would have the strongest case.

have to go now but i will find some examples later and post them on this thread

AndyGuil

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

go to the market trends section of rightmove and do a search for E17
there is data for two years on marketed properties
compare this year with last year

Firstly rightmove isn't all of market, it depends highly on how many properties have been listed through them. Secondly last year wasn't typical but still showed usual trends (just more on the extreme). Thirdly we are way off pre-recession volumes.

AndyGuil

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

have to go now but i will find some examples later and post them on this thread

Good luck. I wouldn't waste your time but up to you.

Jason74

AndyGuil wrote: »

Why do you ask? What do you think?

I'm asking because you have an unusually strident bullish tone. Amost the bull equivelant of some of our visitors from HPC. There's a lot of commentary / evidence out there that the London market is undergoing something more than seasonal fluctuations (how much more remains to be seen). As an example, I previously linkde to a Hometrack report stating explicitly that the current climate was "more than a seasonal slowdown", and this was completely ignored.

In terms of concrete examples, I can provide a several examples of houses that have gone sold STC on rightmove in my area, have come back on, failed to re sell, and are now still sitting on the market at prices lower than the previous sale agreed prices. I would probably agree with you that there isn't a fall in actual sold prices (yet at least, we'll see what the next few Months bring there), but in my area, there most certainly is a drop off in sale agreed prices. This wont show up on any index, but you'll see it if you follow a particular local market.

You seem to completely ignore this, much as our HPC visitors ignore the factors causing upwards pressure on prices. You're clearly an intelligent chap, so I just don't get why you are taking this approach. I can only assume that your living is somehow tied up in the health of the market (either through your job or investments), as there isn't another explanation that makes sense to me.

wotsthat

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

mortgage lending by uk bands would have to increase manifold to plug the gap created by the exit of chinese and russian money
this is not going to happen

How much Chinese and Russian has exited? Are the properties that are, apparently, being abandoned the type that would be typically purchased with a mortgage anyway?

AndyGuil

Jason74 wrote: »

I'm asking because you have an unusually strident bullish tone. Amost the bull equivelant of some of our visitors from HPC. There's a lot of commentary / evidence out there that the London market is undergoing something more than seasonal fluctuations (how much more remains to be seen). As an example, I previously linkde to a Hometrack report stating explicitly that the current climate was "more than a seasonal slowdown", and this was completely ignored.

In terms of concrete examples, I can provide a several examples of houses that have gone sold STC on rightmove in my area, have come back on, failed to re sell, and are now still sitting on the market at prices lower than the previous sale agreed prices. I would probably agree with you that there isn't a fall in actual sold prices (yet at least, we'll see what the next few Months bring there), but in my area, there most certainly is a drop off in sale agreed prices. This wont show up on any index, but you'll see it if you follow a particular local market.

You seem to completely ignore this, much as our HPC visitors ignore the factors causing upwards pressure on prices. You're clearly an intelligent chap, so I just don't get why you are taking this approach. I can only assume that your living is somehow tied up in the health of the market (either through your job or investments), as there isn't another explanation that makes sense to me.

This is completely normal behaviour in the market. Don't be surprised by it. It happens all the time. Last year the market moved quickly, so asking prices are always going to be a bit more extreme than usual and so they will have to reign in. As we see with the land registry the prices were flat MoM, as they normally are this time of year. So despite the large increase last year they have continued on a more usual trend this year. What we are actually see is the market moving in its normal way.

Bubble_and_Squeak

AndyGuil wrote: »

Good luck. I wouldn't waste your time but up to you.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-30387128.html

Bubble_and_Squeak

AndyGuil wrote: »

Good luck. I wouldn't waste your time but up to you.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-42073141.html

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-46170395.html

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-41207452.html

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-31507533.html

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-30111873.html

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-30619962.html

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-47003378.html

there are many many more but this will do for now