Mortgage Lending Rising Again

ukcarper

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

i'm fairly new to online forum debates and to house hunting
so
just to clarify
i'm wrong to believe that vendors cutting asking prices constitutes a reduction in asking prices?
and i'm wrong to believe that an asking price lower than the last house on the same street sold for constitutes a reduction is prices?

The only thing that matters is the sale price.

Where are you getting your sold prices from.

Bubble_and_Squeak

ukcarper wrote: »

The only thing that matters is the sale price.

well, looks like we'll have to pause this debate and wait for the land registry to release figures for august
although, i don't think all transaction are registered on their index
possibly newbuilds are excluded?

Bubble_and_Squeak

ukcarper wrote: »

The only thing that matters is the sale price.

Where are you getting your sold prices from.

i posted some rightmove links earlier in the thread where the asking price was lower than the sold prices displayed on the right hand side of the page
i assume that is land registry data

ukcarper

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

well, looks like we'll have to pause this debate and wait for the land registry to release figures for august
although, i don't think all transaction are registered on their index
possibly newbuilds are excluded?

I don't think they are but they will show the general trend and unless you ask seller, buyer or agent I don't know how you would know sold price.

Jason74

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

You're wrong.

Unless your definition of "bubble" is somehow different to most people's....

If prices are high because of a genuine shortage, that is by definition not a bubble, it's the market using price to allocate goods in scarce supply.

There is a difference between a boom and a bubble.

We're in the early stages of a boom, but as the price rises are supported by the fundamentals of a massive housing shortage and growing population, and they're rising despite lending remaining very restricted, it's difficult/impossible to make a convincing case that it's a bubble.

In most of the UK I would agree with you. But ib London, there is a large amount of speculative buying going on from people buying for reasons other than principle housing in addition to the very real shortage that exists in the capital. In that sense we have a very odd situation, where you have price increases in part because of a genuine shortage, but also in part due to the type of buying which is the very essence of a bubble.

For this reason, London is volatile in a way that the rest of the country simply isn't. That has been reflected both in the huge recent increases, and the fact that London is now slowing dramatically as the rest of the country continues to grow,. What is impossible to know (and anyone who says that they do know either of these things can be safely ignored) is 1) How much of the increase is due to the shortage, and how much due to speculation, and 2) what happens if the speculation stops.

AndyGuil

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

i get confused with numbers
does this show that we currently have higher, lower or the same level of transactions compared to pre-crises?

We are currently sitting in the range that was typical of pre-recession. Volumes are not abnormally low and they are not abnormally high.

ukcarper

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

i posted some rightmove links earlier in the thread where the asking price was lower than the sold prices displayed on the right hand side of the page
i assume that is land registry data

I assume that is land reg data but you have to compare like with like not just nearby property.

Bubble_and_Squeak

ukcarper wrote: »

I don't think they are but they will show the general trend and unless you ask seller, buyer or agent I don't know how you would know sold price.

i suppose that makes the land registry figures as flawed as any other index

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Jason74 wrote: »

In most of the UK I would agree with you. But ib London, there is a large amount of speculative buying going on from people buying for reasons other than principle housing in addition to the very real shortage that exists in the capital. In that sense we have a very odd situation, where you have price increases in part because of a genuine shortage, but also in part due to the type of buying which is the very essence of a bubble.

For this reason, London is volatile in a way that the rest of the country simply isn't. That has been reflected both in the huge recent increases, and the fact that London is now slowing dramatically as the rest of the country continues to grow,. What is impossible to know (and anyone who says that they do know either of these things can be safely ignored) is 1) How much of the increase is due to the shortage, and how much due to speculation, and 2) what happens if the speculation stops.

That there is a significant shortage is I think beyond doubt, and that the shortage is the primary reason for high prices is I also think beyond doubt, but that somewhere in there a bit of speculation may be creating froth on top, well, yes.... I could buy into that notion.

For London.

Obviously not elsewhere in the UK.

ukcarper

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

i suppose that makes the land registry figures as flawed as any other index

There the best we've got and are general similar to nationwide and Halifax.