Mortgage Lending Rising Again

Bubble_and_Squeak

ukcarper wrote: »

I assume that is land reg data but you have to compare like with like not just nearby property.

as canadian country legend michael macdougal would say
"that much is true"
the incidence of asking prices lower than last sold has drastically increased from virtually none in april to a significant minority today
i suppose someone is going to say OH ITS BECAUSE JACK AND DIANE HAVE TAKEN THE KIDS TO MAJORCA
maybe someone who was monitoring the london housing market this time last year can tell us if this is normal for the time of year?

Jason74

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

That there is a significant shortage is I think beyond doubt, and that the shortage is the primary reason for high prices is I also think beyond doubt, but that somewhere in there a bit of speculation may be creating froth on top, well, yes.... I could buy into that notion.

For London.

Obviously not elsewhere in the UK.

Yikes. While we'll probably never agree on how how big a factor the speculative angle is in London, it asounds like we're broadly in agreement on this one . . . . . . .that has to be a first :beer:

Bubble_and_Squeak

ukcarper wrote: »

There the best we've got and are general similar to nationwide and Halifax.

i believe there is a north (halifax)/south (nw) with these two

Bubble_and_Squeak

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

That there is a significant shortage is I think beyond doubt, and that the shortage is the primary reason for high prices is I also think beyond doubt, but that somewhere in there a bit of speculation may be creating froth on top, well, yes.... I could buy into that notion.

For London.

Obviously not elsewhere in the UK.

more jokes!

AndyGuil

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

as canadian country legend michael macdougal would say
"that much is true"
the incidence of asking prices lower than last sold has drastically increased from virtually none in april to a significant minority today
i suppose someone is going to say OH ITS BECAUSE JACK AND DIANE HAVE TAKEN THE KIDS TO MAJORCA
maybe someone who was monitoring the london housing market this time last year can tell us if this is normal for the time of year?

Asking lower than sold would only happen if there is an exceptional difference. This isn't happening.

wotsthat

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

well, looks like we'll have to pause this debate and wait for the land registry to release figures for august

I've bookmarked a few threads lately for later mockery if it helps.

ukcarper

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

as canadian country legend michael macdougal would say
"that much is true"
the incidence of asking prices lower than last sold has drastically increased from virtually none in april to a significant minority today
i suppose someone is going to say OH ITS BECAUSE JACK AND DIANE HAVE TAKEN THE KIDS TO MAJORCA
maybe someone who was monitoring the london housing market this time last year can tell us if this is normal for the time of year?

As I said you have to compare like for like the house that sold for more could be significantly better.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Jason74 wrote: »

Yikes. While we'll probably never agree on how how big a factor the speculative angle is in London, it asounds like we're broadly in agreement on this one

Broadly, perhaps...

There will be some element of speculation in any market, housing is no exception, but where I disagree with our more pessimistic visitors is that I genuinely think the shortage of housing is far and away the biggest factor in UK house prices.

If you asked me what I thought the ratio was between shortage and speculation in terms of overall prices, I would suggest for the UK as a whole it's probably in the region of 99% shortage and 1% speculation.

For London that might be 95% shortage and 5% speculation.

Either way it's trivial.

. . . . . . .that has to be a first :beer:

:beer:

AndyGuil

ukcarper wrote: »

I assume that is land reg data but you have to compare like with like not just nearby property.

This is absolutely critical. Same street, same property. One street is normally very different from another in London. Even one end of a street can be different. There are so many variables that the property price is sensitive to.

Jason74

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Broadly, perhaps...

There will be some element of speculation in any market, housing is no exception, but where I disagree with our more pessimistic visitors is that I genuinely think the shortage of housing is far and away the biggest factor in UK house prices.

If you asked me what I thought the ratio was between shortage and speculation in terms of overall prices, I would suggest for the UK as a whole it's probably in the region of 99% shortage and 1% speculation.

For London that might be 95% shortage and 5% speculation.

Either way it's trivial.



:beer:

Hmm, maybe not as much agreement as I thought then. For London, I'd put the shortage / speculation ratio at about 70 / 30. Not the primary factor for sure, but far from trivial. I think perhaps it's one of those thingds that you actually have to be in an area to see it happening.