House market

franklee

quicklee99 wrote: »

You could be renting at say £750 a month, if you wait a year that's £9k. That might wipe out any potential negative equity too.

Sure but where can I get an interest free mortgage? Surely if you are counting the rent you need to count the equally "dead" mortgage interest too. Not the repayment part as that's actually doing something towards reducing the loan.

w00519772

i was looking since 2009 and like you i was concerned about high prices. There were times when people speculated falls but it never happened. The way i look at it is:

1) supply massively outstrips demand
2) there was a world recession in 2007 and house prices did not fall that much
3) there were asking price falls recently but that does not necessarily mean selling price falls

i bought in Lincoln. London is slightly different to the rest of the uk in my opinion.

Davesnave

w00519772 wrote: »

2) there was a world recession in 2007 and house prices did not fall that much


i bought in Lincoln. London is slightly different to the rest of the uk in my opinion.

You've said twice that prices "didn't fall that much," but for many people they did, by 20% or more.

That's a pretty good reduction!

Perhaps you weren't looking to buy then, or you thought the downward trend would continue.

ukcarper

franklee wrote: »

Sure but where can I get an interest free mortgage? Surely if you are counting the rent you need to count the equally "dead" mortgage interest too. Not the repayment part as that's actually doing something towards reducing the loan.

That's true in a way but when you have paid your mortgage off you will not be paying anything so it means it will be one less year you are paying rent.

buglawton

rxg111 wrote: »

I can only speak of my experience in the London property market, which, as we all know, is in a league of its own.

I'm thinking of buying an investment property, and at the beginning of the year, I was increasingly disheartened by the preposterous prices; difficulty in getting viewings; and the feeling there was a lot of panic-buying going on.

Since June, however, I'm getting pestered by EAs to come and view properties (this was unheard of before) and my inbox is full-to-bursting with new properties for sale. There are also new-build developments with unsold plots, which in the past would've been snapped up by overseas investors long before Londoners even got a look-in.

Whilst I don't think we're heading for a crash, it certainly feels as if the peak has passed, and corrections are being applied. I'm going to sit tight for around 12 months to see what happens next...

Your feeling may be backed up by hard facts:

Record August slump in house prices
Average asking price of new sellers in England and Wales was 2.9% lower than in July, with London prices down 5.9%
http://www.theguardian.com/money/2014/aug/18/august-house-prices-slump

franklee

ukcarper wrote: »

That's true in a way but when you have paid your mortgage off you will not be paying anything so it means it will be one less year you are paying rent.

No one is saying rent for 25 years, the comment I responded to was comparing renting a year to buying now. So long as the renter puts the repayment part of an equivalent mortgage aside in savings they are gaining or losing against the buyer by house price movements and the difference in rent vs mortgage interest. The point I was making is that to totally ignore the mortgage interest paid when counting the rent is hugely biased so both those expenses need adding in.

brit1234

The cost of money is going up. October the US ends QE, the funding for lending money for mortgages has ended with the cash pile running out. An interest rise in next 6 months combined with the new capital gains tax rules for foreign buyers next year should reduce the peak of the bubble.

I am just saving and saving, hopefully one day I can buy.

ukcarper

franklee wrote: »

No one is saying rent for 25 years, the comment I responded to was comparing renting a year to buying now. So long as the renter puts the repayment part of an equivalent mortgage aside in savings they are gaining or losing against the buyer by house price movements and the difference in rent vs mortgage interest. The point I was making is that to totally ignore the mortgage interest paid when counting the rent is hugely biased so both those expenses need adding in.

But the longer you leave it to buy the longer you will pay rent.

I think there is a chance that prices will fall more that a years rent over the next year but it's a gamble and they could just as easily rise. I would ignore people who tell you prices will fall or will rise as nobody really knows.

ukcarper

brit1234 wrote: »

The cost of money is going up. October the US ends QE, the funding for lending money for mortgages has ended with the cash pile running out. An interest rise in next 6 months combined with the new capital gains tax rules for foreign buyers next year should reduce the peak of the bubble.

I am just saving and saving, hopefully one day I can buy.

Still at it then how much have properties gone up since your prediction of 50% falls

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

ukcarper wrote: »

Still at it then how much have properties gone up since your prediction of 50% falls

Properties in Brit's area have risen 50%+ since he predicted 50% falls by Xmas 09.....