House market

Buzzz

Does anyone have any views on what's happening with the house market and what might happen over the next few months? I know a lot will depend on interest rates.

I've been watching the market since January as I'm looking to buy, although am worried by some of the high prices that some properties have gone for.

Unfortunately I'm fairly restricted with what I can afford so am in the market with the BTL guys and investment buyers (£150k budget). A lot of properties that sold after one viewing several months ago are back on the market, obviously not sold for one reason or another, and are sitting there still not sold.

Also what else is interesting is looking at the sale price history of properties, the % increase is higher now than most other years, which worries me.

Would you wait for the market to settle or buy right now? The last thing I want to do is buy and find I have negative equity because prices drop next year.

Confused.

nick12

Unless there is overwhelming evidence that we are on the verge of an almighty crash I would just buy once you are in a good financial position to do so (making sure you are giving yourself some financial breathing space for rate rises).

No one can really tell you with any deal of accuracy what the market is going to do, particularly in the long term (which is what really matters).

googler

Without knowing which part of the country you're talking about.....

SailorSam

Have you just been listening to the radio, if not go and find it on catch-up.
I went to listen to Moneybox on R4 and it wasn't on but it was the first of a two part special on housing. One couple in Bristol had been looking for months but were constantly being gazumped, they were at a viewing and i think it was 25 others at the same time, in one property the estate agent asked that anyone who wished to put in an offer was to leave a sealed bid on the table there and then after seeing the house for less than10mins.

BigAunty

I've always loved Private Eye's satirical take on this.

"According to experts, property prices will collapse/stay the same/increase."

Zither

I'm a little more sceptical about the housing market than most. Yes, there's the argument about supply/demand (especially in places like London) but I think house prices are also a function of the availability of cheap credit (loans).

The market will keep rising as long as there's cheap credit out there to support it (prices rise to match the amount of money floating about) but IMO if credit becomes more expensive then that's where the market will stagnate or fall - i.e. when people can no longer afford to borrow that much.

More expensive credit would mean prices would then be more correlated with household income and well...without credit then people can ultimately only buy what they can individually afford.

Just a personal opinion but with mortgage restrictions (MMR), generally rising interest rats, exposure to global interest rate changes and that the UK is up to its eyeballs in private (credit cards, personal loans) and public (government) debt then I'm not sure how long it can go on for!

Happy hunting

Reactor_2

OP,

I think the opportunity to buy on a dip has past, as that was during 2008-2009. The best time to buy is when you are hearing people being laid off in thousands and repossessions of the same magnitude. The problem will be that you will be too worried about losing your job than thinking about snapping up a bargain.

I suspect you are only interested in buying a property now because they have gone up 20% in the last year. I wouldn't use this as a reason to buy and I'd definitely wouldn't extrapolate this performance out into the future.

Lord_Baltimore

It's still a seller's market at the moment. Sit tight, a hard rain's a gonna fall when interest rates rise. Depending on your circumstances, that's the time to buy. Don't get sucked into the current melee; it's too high to buy at present.

[Deleted User]

There was a programme about this on BBC R4 today, and even estate agents were saying we are headed for a crash. Prices are insane at the moment, and exactly what happened before with everyone buying on silly amounts of credit is happening again.

Best to wait for the crash. It is likely to be within 12 to 18 months. If you buy now not only will you saddle yourself with a much higher than necessary mortgage, you will end up in negative equity pretty quickly.

tigsly

Someone said that to me in 1999.. I'm still waiting for the 'crash' that means prices go below that level..

Thrugelmir

Zither wrote: »

I'm a little more sceptical about the housing market than most. Yes, there's the argument about supply/demand (especially in places like London) but I think house prices are also a function of the availability of cheap credit (loans).

The market will keep rising as long as there's cheap credit out there to support it (prices rise to match the amount of money floating about) but IMO if credit becomes more expensive then that's where the market will stagnate or fall - i.e. when people can no longer afford to borrow that much.

More expensive credit would mean prices would then be more correlated with household income and well...without credit then people can ultimately only buy what they can individually afford.

Just a personal opinion but with mortgage restrictions (MMR), generally rising interest rats, exposure to global interest rate changes and that the UK is up to its eyeballs in private (credit cards, personal loans) and public (government) debt then I'm not sure how long it can go on for!

Happy hunting

100% in agreement with your sentiments. Credit has been cheap since the GFC to stabilise the banks. Now the initial phase is complete. Returning base rate to a more normal 5% - 7% must be the long term objective. Some years away so will a long bumpy road.