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Debate House Prices
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'We've reached a tipping point' Signs of house price weakness
Comments
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Crashy_Time wrote: »
What do you think would have happened if they didn't?
The sun would still rise I think?0 -
Crashy_Time wrote: »0
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I'm out.
With so many pertinent points remaining unanswered?
Thought you had a bit more in you than the average hpc-er, but up to you.
In case anyone else wants to have a go......I'd suppose that given present restrictions on multiples and the fact that there is no longer any new interest only lending, then these curent CML FTBers can afford to buy, even on the more general definition.
As they're mortgages are repayment then one would have to suppose that if they can service them to term then they'll have 25 years minimum of HPI locked in. Even if they're somewhat squeezed on pension because they are at 4.5x LTI or more, they should end up with enough equity to do some equity release, so it seems a reasonable proposition that present FTBers can afford to buy what they are buying even on the more general definition.
Then we agree on that point.
Those buying houses today can afford to do so.
So do you agree or disagree with the frequent assertion on HPC and by some HPC regulars over here that today's buyers are "over-stretching themselves"?what I was contesting was your suggestion that I had suggested that these people were on higher incomes. I didn't suggest that, I did not intend to suggest it and I do not believe it to be the case
I did not say they were on higher incomes, I said they were on higher than average incomes.
I suppose to be fair to you, a lot depends on your interpretation of the word "average", but in this instance I'm going to use the median income, full time employed, of male and female.
From memory, the average CML FTB actually earns right around the mean, full time, male income figure, but that's a whole other debate.....
Do you disagree that average actual house buyers have a higher income than the median income of all people?
We tend to take that as a given here, and the data supports it, so I'm surprised you are putting up such resistance to the point?
But apologies if you are somehow offended by the suggestion that you would also think that?I think asking in a civil way three times is about my limit, especially given the rough treatment that has been meted out so far.
This isn't rough treatment, or rather, it certainly isn't intended to be. We can't of course control how you may perceive it.
This is however robust debate.
Something you may not be used to if you've come from a forum that bans most dissenting voices.....If you asked me whether I wanted house prices to fall, I'd say "Yes".
We guessed that part.
And to show I'm not being hostile, here, have a very dodgy smiley....
:grouphug:Lots of families around me in the South East are cooped up in inadequate starter homes.
Why do you think that is?
And to circumvent a number of posts and get straight to the point, if you could wave a magic wand tomorrow and make all houses 50% of the price they are today, how many new empty houses would suddenly spring up for those cooped up families to go and live in?Lots of thirty-somethings who are working are living in parental homes - and I doubt that is all out of choice.
I would completely agree it's not out of choice, and it's not just "lots", it's many millions of adults living with parents, or lodging, or in HMO's, or flatshares, or what have you.
But the point we are trying to make, is that if prices were to halve, where would the millions of houses suddenly appear from for these people to go and live in?
They don't exist.... Which is why prices are expensive.
The market is rationing goods in scarce supply through price, exactly as it should.
Millions of people are forced to share, through high prices and high rents, that would otherwise want to have a place of their own, if they could only afford it.
But if they could afford it...... if you could wave a magic wand and drop prices and rents far enough so that these millions of people could now afford their own place, it would make no difference at all.
Because there simply aren't enough spare houses.
They would still have to live at home, to share, to live in HMO's, etc.
Only now we'd have to find some other way of rationing the limited properties.
Perhaps waiting lists, or lotteries.....Housing is too expensive, full stop. .
Then build a few million more houses, and prices will fall, sustainably, over the long term.
Ration credit, and all that happens is house building falls to 100 year lows and the shortage worsens. As we have seen for the last 7 years.“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
Crashy_Time wrote: »
Are you saying there was no subprime lending in the UK?
No I'm not, are you saying that UK sub prime lending caused the crash here in the UK????0 -
This is daft, I'm not saying that I'm offended that you suggested that I thought that first time buyers have above average earnings. That would be ridiculous.
I was taking offence at the fact that you attributed a view to me out of thin air, and taking further offence that you ignored me each time I asked you to explain why you had done it.
For the record, I did clearly point out that debate involves to and fro and that what I required of you was an explanation of where I had posted something that warranted your decision to attribute to me a view that I had not stated.
It's just elementary stuff. How can I debate you if you make up my position for me?
And again, I said that I wasn't just going to grant you licence to drive the dialogue because you want to. Quid pro quo.
I'm out.
You'll be sorely missed, after all you answered all questions posed and definitely didn't assert an opinion as fact without providing evidence......... Oh wait:D0 -
Crashy_Time wrote: »
I don`t trawl around for figures, it`s too time consuming, and there is bias in all stats one way or another? Also as Hamish shows us daily you can cut and paste any old !!!!! out of context to make a point.
I know many ordinary punters MEW`ed like f*uck because people who sell fags in John Menzies started having four holidays a year and parking two jeeps on their newly acquired drives. I know the block I am in now in central Edinburgh is half empty, and has been for a long time, some BTL`ers are not having it easy. I know that a thread called "Is Prime London Crashing" has been on the first page of the HPC website since January, and as it is regularly updated with price drops, it couldn`t still be on that page if there wasn`t something changing in the market.
These are just observations that show that something is up with the housing market.
Hahaha, why bother checking facts and analyse statistics when one can simply check the unbiased HPC website for the top trending thread....
You've made my evening you lunatic. Thank you:beer:0 -
Jack_Johnson_the_acorn wrote: »Crashy_Time wrote: »
Hahaha, why bother checking facts and analyse statistics when one can simply check the unbiased HPC website for the top trending thread....
You've made my evening you lunatic. Thank you:beer:
Not sure what's happening but it looks like I'm morphing into Crashy I hope I don't sell my house and start to rent.0 -
Jack_Johnson_the_acorn wrote: »
Not sure what's happening but it looks like I'm morphing into Crashy I hope I don't sell my house and start to rent.
Oh no it's happening to you.0 -
Not sure what's happening but it looks like I'm morphing into Crashy I hope I don't sell my house and start to rent.
Delete the spare (wrong) quote symbol next time you reply.....“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
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