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'We've reached a tipping point' Signs of house price weakness
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Definitely precocious - I have Violet Elizabeth Bott in mind.
Interesting you can do the maths and talk about 30 year gilts to prove it. Still no numbers though. Hmm.
I'm on record as saying (multiple times) that the sweet spot would be increasing nominal prices and falling real prices. Can we clamber to the moral high ground together?
OK - I see you're doubling down on the insult, so I'm out. It may surprise you to hear this, but I am new here and I did not know that you existed until earlier this afternoon, much less know what you thought.
You're demanding maths, but there hasn't been any debate that has given rise to the framing of a question that requires a mathematical answer.
Just deciding that I can be expected to "Dance, monkey dance" and answer the question that you want me to answer is a little presumptuous.
You seem to be asking me to give you a neat answer as to whether or not it is cheaper to buy or to rent, and that's fascinating, but it is not what the thread title is.
If you want to debate that, you should start a thread a new thread with an appropriate title.
You may be to find someone who wants to debate that with you on this thread, but it ain't me babe.
Obviously, if you can buy early enough in your work life and service the mortgage, then all things being equal over a working life in the UK it is cheaper to buy than to rent. In buying you take on some risks, but provided they don't bite you too hard at the wrong time, buying is presently cheaper than renting. I am at a loss to understand why you suppose this is even a contentious question.
Also, the relevance of that question to this thread escapes me. What it is that I posted that leads you to believe that it is seemly for you to demand I answer it escapes me also.
Anyway, as I earlier indicated, you're going to get the last word on this one. I'd rather it wasn't an insult.
Yours sincerely,
Ms V. Bott.0 -
If you asked me whether I wanted house prices to fall, I'd say "Yes".
We guessed that part.
And to show I'm not being hostile, here, have a very dodgy smiley....
:grouphug:Lots of families around me in the South East are cooped up in inadequate starter homes.
Why do you think that is?
And to circumvent a number of posts and get straight to the point, if you could wave a magic wand tomorrow and make all houses 50% of the price they are today, how many new empty houses would suddenly spring up for those cooped up families to go and live in?Lots of thirty-somethings who are working are living in parental homes - and I doubt that is all out of choice.
I would completely agree it's not out of choice, and it's not just "lots", it's many millions of adults living with parents, or lodging, or in HMO's, or flatshares, or what have you.
But the point we are trying to make, is that if prices were to halve, where would the millions of houses suddenly appear from for these people to go and live in?
They don't exist.... Which is why prices are expensive.
The market is rationing goods in scarce supply through price, exactly as it should.
Millions of people are forced to share, through high prices and high rents, that would otherwise want to have a place of their own, if they could only afford it.
But if they could afford it...... if you could wave a magic wand and drop prices and rents far enough so that these millions of people could now afford their own place, it would make no difference at all.
Because there simply aren't enough spare houses.
They would still have to live at home, to share, to live in HMO's, etc.
Only now we'd have to find some other way of rationing the limited properties.
Perhaps waiting lists, or lotteries.....Housing is too expensive, full stop. .
Then build a few million more houses, and prices will fall, sustainably, over the long term.
Ration credit, and all that happens is house building falls to 100 year lows and the shortage worsens. As we have seen for the last 7 years.“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
Crashy_Time wrote: »My spelling might be bad but my maths is good.
What I'd really like from you is a well reasoned post with some figures to back it up instead if the inane drivel you keep posting.
I don`t trawl around for figures, it`s too time consuming, and there is bias in all stats one way or another? Also as Hamish shows us daily you can cut and paste any old !!!!! out of context to make a point.
I know many ordinary punters MEW`ed like f*uck because people who sell fags in John Menzies started having four holidays a year and parking two jeeps on their newly acquired drives. I know the block I am in now in central Edinburgh is half empty, and has been for a long time, some BTL`ers are not having it easy. I know that a thread called "Is Prime London Crashing" has been on the first page of the HPC website since January, and as it is regularly updated with price drops, it couldn`t still be on that page if there wasn`t something changing in the market.
These are just observations that show that something is up with the housing market.0 -
Crashy_Time wrote: »
Prices are affected by sentiment and credit availability that is why they fell in 2008 but there are other factors and that is why they didn't fall as much as you hoped.
Talking to yourself now? Was it Special Brew not Guinness?0 -
Crashy_Time wrote: »
Prices are affected by sentiment and credit availability that is why they fell in 2008 but there are other factors and that is why they didn't fall as much as you hoped.
The "other factors" are that the central banks did everything they could to save their precious fiat system, and after all their intervention it is still f*ucked.0 -
Crashy_Time wrote: »
About 10% mewed according to your friend but his figures don't look that accurate.
I don`t trawl around for figures, it`s too time consuming, and there is bias in all stats one way or another? Also as Hamish shows us daily you can cut and paste any old !!!!! out of context to make a point.
I know many ordinary punters MEW`ed like f*uck because people who sell fags in John Menzies started having four holidays a year and parking two jeeps on their newly acquired drives. I know the block I am in now in central Edinburgh is half empty, and has been for a long time, some BTL`ers are not having it easy. I know that a thread called "Is Prime London Crashing" has been on the first page of the HPC website since January, and as it is regularly updated with price drops, it couldn`t still be on that page if there wasn`t something changing in the market.
These are just observations that show that something is up with the housing market.
If a thread on HPC is your proof good luck.0 -
Crashy_Time wrote: »0
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Crashy_Time wrote: »I know that a thread called "Is Prime London Crashing" has been on the first page of the HPC website since January, and as it is regularly updated with price drops, it couldn`t still be on that page if there wasn`t something changing in the market.
How's the crash looking in London since January on the pesky indexes?
It's weird, the presence of anything on hpc is generally a sure sign of the opposite happening in my experience.This is a system account and does not represent a real person. To contact the Forum Team email forumteam@moneysavingexpert.com0 -
Crashy_Time wrote: »About 10% mewed according to your friend but his figures don't look that accurate.
If a thread on HPC is your proof good luck.
Ok, my posts are coming up as yours you will be happy to know. So you are now officially INSANE or an UBER TROLL!0 -
HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »But apologies if you are somehow offended by the suggestion that you would also think that?
This is daft, I'm not saying that I'm offended that you suggested that I thought that first time buyers have above average earnings. That would be ridiculous.
I was taking offence at the fact that you attributed a view to me out of thin air, and taking further offence that you ignored me each time I asked you to explain why you had done it.
For the record, I did clearly point out that debate involves to and fro and that what I required of you was an explanation of where I had posted something that warranted your decision to attribute to me a view that I had not stated.
It's just elementary stuff. How can I debate you if you make up my position for me?
And again, I said that I wasn't just going to grant you licence to drive the dialogue because you want to. Quid pro quo.
I'm out.0
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