'We've reached a tipping point' Signs of house price weakness

hpc_troll

Rota wrote: »

I cant see it! Can you post it again?

Sorry, Rota, my bad, I'm finding the board a little tricky - and trying to talk to about three different posters at the same time isn't helping, (especially if they delete their posts as you reply!)

I'd confused a reply of mine to wotsthat (#420) with a reply to you. Again, my sincere apologies.

Rota

wotsthat wrote: »

It seems to involve buying a house for your landlord instead of yourself and much wishful thinking. Mix in some anger and the keywords sheeple, Ponzi, banksters and debt titty and that's it.

You seem quite an elder statesman - you must have lost even more money than Crashy

What's your username on HPC? Please be Bruce Banner.

Bruce is the second biggest tool over there - this isnt him. If it was we would be hearing about how many Euros hes been losing money on recently.

Rota

hpc_troll wrote: »

Sorry, Rota, my bad, I'm finding the board a little tricky - and trying to talk to about three different posters at the same time isn't helping, (especially if they delete their posts as you reply!)

I'd confused a reply of mine to wotsthat (#420) with a reply to you. Again, my sincere apologies.

Easy done -no issue. :T

hpc_troll

wotsthat wrote: »

It seems to involve buying a house for your landlord instead of yourself and much wishful thinking. Mix in some anger and the keywords sheeple, Ponzi, banksters and debt titty and that's it.

You seem quite an elder statesman - you must have lost even more money than Crashy

What's your username on HPC? Please be Bruce Banner.

Thanks for replying.

That answer is not entirely clear. Again, for clarity so that debate can proceed, is what I described, in order to clarify matters, as Selling To Rent (STR) what you were characterising as the "hpc strategy"?

You'll forgive me for making this guess, but again the confrontational and brusque style I've encountered so far disposes me to anticipate it - is your suggestion that the "hpc strategy" is renting sincere or facetious?

For clarity - you've introduced the idea of an "hpc strategy". I don't understand what you mean by this. Is it:

(a)

speculating on price movement by selling a house you own (with or without a mortgage) when you believe prices are at a peak in order to buy back into the owner-occupied sector when prices fall

or

(b)

renting rather than buying (indefinitely?)

On (b) I am totally guessing on what you might mean, and willing to admit the possibility that it was in fact mockery, on (a) I was providing a guess so that you'd not think I was being unhelpful in order to frustrate discourse.

As noted earlier on the thread, I post on hpc as bland unsight.

The taunt about how much I have personally lost suggests that you anticipate that ad hominem attacks and mockery are to form an important part of the cut and thrust in this debate. I will be taking no part in that, but obviously, if it is sustained then it will indicate that what is expected is not debate but some unhappy mixture of bear baiting a dialogue of the deaf, and as I came here for a debate, I won't be hanging around just so I can be by turn ignored and doused with calumny.

Entertaining in passing the unlikely premise that your speculation about how long I've been posting on hpc is motivated by concern for my financial situation, I think it is a shade over two years. As to whether I've gained or lost, I'm not sure how to evaluate that. I suppose the honest truth is that I've never thought about it. I've certainly never calculated it and don't intend to now. My interest in house prices in predicated on how the unmanaged transformation of the mortgage market transformed in an unmanaged way a central part of our economic lives - how we go about purchasing a lifetime supply of housing with our lifetime earnings. I'm not that interested in whether I win. Some hpc posters might be hoping that someone else loses. Not me. I'm more for the naive notion that "Nobody wins, till everybody wins".

If you asked me whether I wanted house prices to fall, I'd say "Yes". Lots of families around me in the South East are cooped up in inadequate starter homes. Lots of people on low wages jobs have no prospect of obtaining any kind of security of tenure. Lots of thirty-somethings who are working are living in parental homes - and I doubt that is all out of choice. Housing is too expensive, full stop. If part of fixing that is falling house prices, I'm all for it. If people have mortgages they can afford, what difference does falling house prices make to them. It's a house not a magic piggy bank.

ukcarper

hpc_troll wrote: »

If you asked me whether I wanted house prices to fall, I'd say "Yes". Lots of families around me in the South East are cooped up in inadequate starter homes. Lots of people on low wages jobs have no prospect of obtaining any kind of security of tenure. Lots of thirty-somethings who are working are living in parental homes - and I doubt that is all out of choice. Housing is too expensive, full stop. If part of fixing that is falling house prices, I'm all for it. If people have mortgages they can afford, what difference does falling house prices make to them. It's a house not a magic piggy bank.

Wanting house prices to fall and prices actually falling are two different things. I personally think prices have become to high in the South East but with the shortage of available housing I can't see a major fall in the near future although I wouldn't be surprised to see some small falls saying that I didn't expect the recent large increases.

wotsthat

I've told you exactly what I think the HPC strategy is if you think it's different then stop being coy and correct me.

I'm not surprised you've never reviewed it's effectiveness - at it's core is a faith based system. Numbers don't come into it. If Dances with Sheeple posted his numbers on HPC and even hinted it would have been better to buy he'd be banned quicker than you could say 'estate agent'.

I'm not precocious enough to claim that I'm solely interested in how the transformation of the mortgage market transformed in an unmanaged way a central part of our economic lives - hell - I'm not even going to pretend to know what you're talking about.

I'm interested in the lowest cost way to provide secure and safe accommodation for my family. The big disappointment to me is that you don't feel able to back up your position with maths rather than philosophy.

I didn't ask if you wanted prices to fall - I already knew the answer.

Crashy_Time

ukcarper wrote: »

Wanting house prices to fall and prices actually falling are two different things. I personally think prices have become to high in the South East but with the shortage of available housing I can't see a major fall in the near future although I wouldn't be surprised to see some small falls saying that I didn't expect the recent large increases.

Wanting house prices to rise forever when the main employment opportunity available to young people is being a checkout jockey and house prices actually rising forever is the difference between being a mentalist and economic reality. I personally think house prices have reached their peak everywhere but with the shortage of available credit I can see a major fall in the near future followed by even bigger falls later on. Saying that I didn`t expect it to rumble on for so long.

ukcarper

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Wanting house prices to rise forever when the main employment opportunity available to young people is being a checkout jockey and house prices actually rising forever is the difference between being a mentalist and economic reality. I personally think house prices have reached their peak everywhere but with the shortage of available credit I can see a major fall in the near future followed by even bigger falls later on. Saying that I didn`t expect it to rumble on for so long.

People expecting a large fall in the near future and people expecting large rises for ever are both as made as each other as far as I'm concerned. Can you explain the economic reality in detail because I fail to see it.

System

Some people will always see a large fall in the future which is why they spend their lives renting.

We're far enough into this now (6 years?) to know who has the right ideas and who has royally ballsed up. I don't see what the debate is about.

hpc_troll

ukcarper wrote: »

Wanting house prices to fall and prices actually falling are two different things.

Agree 100%. The market doesn't care what I want. If wishes were horses, beggars would ride.

ukcarper wrote: »

I personally think prices have become to high in the South East but with the shortage of available housing I can't see a major fall in the near future although I wouldn't be surprised to see some small falls saying that I didn't expect the recent large increases.

Even if you believe that in some markets the prices of some house prices need to correct, as you appear to, and I certainly do, calling the size and timings of corrections is a mug's game IMO, as recent events have demonstrated. Perhaps some people really did anticipate that if we hit a bump in the road bad enough the government would end up with 80% of RBS, 43% of Lloyds (Lloyds having swallowed HBOS), Northern Rock would end up in UK Asset Resolution, along with Bradford and Bingley and the Dunfermline. That the base rate would be pulled down to 0.5% and stay there for five years, that Funding For Lending would pull the cost of the banks for retail deposits below 2% before admin costs, that the government would offer equity loans of 20% at an initial interest rate of 0% for 5 years, and extend that by offering mortgage guarantees for remortgaging on 95% LTV loans up to £600k.

But you have to ask yourself - if this is what is needed to be at these prices - are they really market prices? And if they are not market prices, can the government fight the market and win?

When the government hands weighs too heavily on a fragile market, the prices may be fickle.