'We've reached a tipping point' Signs of house price weakness

lisyloo

I don't know the Luton area but yes it certainly does look affordable.
Personally I would draw the line at having to climb over another sleeping person to get out of bed (the first one) but as you say they are just examples of their ilk.

I don't know the area or the commute.
The prices indicate it's not highly sought after and many of those train lines are cattle trucks but no-one can argue that it's affordable.

Places in central London will always carry a premium as commuting is both a horrible experience and a waste of life, but you have to cut your cloth to suit don't you.

All it indicates really is how polarised the market is and how much people will pay and how hard they will try to avoid commuting.

I personally doubt that Luton is a hidden gem.
It's probably not a desire able area (evidenced by the prices) and the commute is a cattle truck but that's an educated guess.

padington

lisyloo wrote: »

I don't know the Luton area but yes it certainly does look affordable.
Personally I would draw the line at having to climb over another sleeping person to get out of bed (the first one) but as you say they are just examples of their ilk.

I don't know the area or the commute.
The prices indicate it's not highly sought after and many of those train lines are cattle trucks but no-one can argue that it's affordable.

Places in central London will always carry a premium as commuting is both a horrible experience and a waste of life, but you have to cut your cloth to suit don't you.

All it indicates really is how polarised the market is and how much people will pay and how hard they will try to avoid commuting.

I personally doubt that Luton is a hidden gem.
It's probably not a desire able area (evidenced by the prices) and the commute is a cattle truck but that's an educated guess.

Luton was predicted to be a leading up and coming area price wise recently by Rigtmove recently I think it was along with Brighton and Southampton. Still quite an ugly concrete jungle though.

lisyloo

Still quite an ugly concrete jungle though.

Looking at the pictures I think I would find it quite depressing.
I find there's a real buzz in central London and it lifts my mood and makes me a whole lot more optimistic. I guess my wellbeing is affected by my surroundings (or perception of them).
My 1 bed rented flat is worth 5 times that and there has to be a reason for that.

Door-to-door commute also has to be considered.
DH has an onward commute of 50 mins from kings cross, so that's about 90 mins each way - 3 hours per day, which is pretty grim especially if you're standing a lot of the way.
If you work near kings cross then great, but bear in mind you might need or want to change jobs at some point.
Living centrally means you can get anywhere, not just one specific place.
My personal experience is that jobs change more frequently than owned properties.

It might logically be affordable but a £90K price tag shows exactly how sought after it is.

Mallotum_X

The point is lots of people are saying London is unaffordable to the young but yet there are a plethora of towns close by that do allow graduates to buy and have a reasonable commute. With a better budget there are decent houses to be had for under £250k.

I live close to the next station out from Luton, and regularly work in Central London, either in our office next to Tower Bridge or at clients offices. Tower Bridge is about an hour door to door. Its very rare for me not to get a seat. Those getting on in Luton would also find it rare not to be seated, further down the line, those getting on are standing.

padington wrote: »

Luton was predicted to be a leading up and coming area price wise recently by Rigtmove recently I think it was along with Brighton and Southampton. Still quite an ugly concrete jungle though.

Luton has been featured in the top few on several similar lists recently, and apparently has the 2nd highest number of commuters moving to the town after Basildon. I think a lot of the press regarding it being up and coming is from the various investment/regeneration schemes currently under-way or about to start. There are several major road building schemes ongoing (or just finished), plus a lot of former industrial land (particularly from the old Vauxhall site next to the Airport Parkway Station) is being redeveloped into new homes/neighbourhoods.

Clearly towns like Luton and similar are not prime London, but for many who complain about being unable to afford London, perhaps by being more realistic about what they can afford and putting down roots elsewhere they can get on with life rather than waiting.

lisyloo

that do allow graduates to buy and have a reasonable commute

I would agree that it's reasonable for a graduate without children.
I would find it acceptable if I was a graduate.

There are nicer places in the country to work with shorter commutes, but that is the price you pay is not having the availability of career options that exist in London.

wotsthat

lisyloo wrote: »

I would agree that it's reasonable for a graduate without children.
I would find it acceptable if I was a graduate.

There are nicer places in the country to work with shorter commutes, but that is the price you pay is not having the availability of career options that exist in London.

You want to live outside of London at the weekend but need to live in London to work. Buy or rent you're not going to be able to square the circle - it's going to be expensive and there's no perfect solution - only a least worst.

I'm currently costing a similar exercise for potentially working in the Midlands and then going home to the South-West at weekends. I'm willing to rough it for three years or so but the costs involved are still significant. The days of the Travelodge tennertastic are long gone!

Rental yields are so high up here that buying a small flat, even for a short period, might be the least cost and, on balance, the most convenient.

lisyloo

it's going to be expensive and there's no perfect solution

There are downsides but we're pretty happy renting a nice place in central London. It's better than commuting or living apart. The cost can can be claimed as business expenses for (up to) 24 months, which makes it somewhat (circa 30%) cheaper.
For us - somewhere like Luton which is a 3 hour commute rather than 5 (daily) would be the worst of all worlds, whereas a central bolt hole gives the best of both worlds (with a few downsides).

I'm willing to rough it for three years

We're not.
It's basically a cost of working in London whether you commute, rent, hotel or buy.
If we'd of had a choice of jobs then we could have compared the costs.
As is was DH was unemployed outside of London so the choice was pretty clear.

that buying a small flat, even for a short period, might be the least cost and, on balance, the most convenient

Each situation is different but in our case

1) We'd lose the current business tax break (circa 30%)
2) We'd lose a 40% lost opportunity cost on our pensions if we're making large mortgaage repayments instead.
3) We're not planning on staying long term so the transactional costs are significant.
4) The work situation is not totally clear - the risks of buying are pretty big for us until the business is established.

I think we are mostly likely to carry on renting, although I will keep an eye on the market. I don't expect a crash in central London barring some major disaster.

I would still come back to the point that the prices tell you everything.
If my flat is worth about £450K and the ones in Luton are £90 then that tells me that for whatever reason and whether you agree with those reasons or not - lots more people want to live in my flat that the ones in Luton.

danothy

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

yes, you're right
they're putting some fresh asphalt on the high road and a new bench outside morrisons
just watch N22 defy market forces

padington wrote: »

In twelve months let's return to this post.

Make of this what you will:

wotsthat

Crashy_Time wrote: »

https://www.estateagenttoday.co.uk/breaking-news/2015/11/high-end-agents-demand-chancellor-reverses-stamp-duty-reform

Estate Agent Today?

Just another tree obscuring your view of the woods.

Crashy_Time

wotsthat wrote: »

Estate Agent Today?

Just another tree obscuring your view of the woods.

Everything Tickety Boo down the woods then is it, in your mind map of the world?