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'We've reached a tipping point' Signs of house price weakness
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Hamish, out of interest were you any good at predicting the 2009 crash ?Proudly voted remain. A global union of countries is the only way to commit global capital to the rule of law.0
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Crashy_Time wrote: »Hamish, a question mark at the end of every sentence is less hassle than a graph at the end of every paragraph, don`t you agree?
And I'm guessing you won't be posting any more links to this thread on HPC now that you're getting your ar5e handed to you on a plate.
“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
Hamish, were you any good at predicting the 2009 crash ?
I called for Aberdeen to have 15% to 18% falls. It was 19%.
I also reckoned 30% to 35% nationally in real terms. It was a fair bit less than that.
So not exactly right.
But my annual prediction threads on here have been pretty much right in calling the recovery.
And I reckon the next boom will make the last one look tiny, thanks to 7 years of mortgage rationing causing building to fall to the lowest level in 100 years, while population soars.....:D“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »I called for Aberdeen to have 15% to 18% falls. It was 19%.
I also reckoned 30% to 35% nationally in real terms. It was a fair bit less than that.
I've pretty consistently been more bearish than reality has turned out to be.
And I reckon the next boom will make the last one look tiny....:D
Wow, when do you reckon that will be ?Proudly voted remain. A global union of countries is the only way to commit global capital to the rule of law.0 -
Wow, when do you reckon that will be ?
It's already started.
Next proper crash in the mid 2020's.....“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »It's already started.
Next proper crash in the mid 2020's.....
Sheet, you're making me think sitting on 85% equity might be a little too risk averse ...Proudly voted remain. A global union of countries is the only way to commit global capital to the rule of law.0 -
HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »As is mortgage lending.
You know, the thing you blamed for high prices last time around.
Approvals today are at little more than half the long term average, as mortgage rationing remains endemic.
Yet prices have now exceeded previous peak on average.:D
Because you can't cure a housing shortage with lending restrictions.:cool:
Most people can`t benefit though, because they can`t sell their house! The market is in lockdown, the only solution is a crash, it is like a Grizzly bear chewing it`s own balls, things are not going to end well.0 -
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Crashy_Time wrote: »Tried selling your house recently?
No but I've got estate agents trying to chew my leg off for it.Proudly voted remain. A global union of countries is the only way to commit global capital to the rule of law.0 -
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