'We've reached a tipping point' Signs of house price weakness

gbsilp · 13 August 2014 at 12:03AM

wotsthat wrote: »

I can understand you say you'd buy if prices fell by 35% overnight. However why would you buy just because everyone else got a pay rise too?

It seems highly unlikely, although not impossible, but if you read your post again you've listed reasons why prices should have been al this level in 2008. Then you've listed reasons why they aren't i.e you were WRONG and are still wrong 6 years later.

Why have you got it right this time? What if you've missed something again?

My bet would be anyone into HPC for a couple of years or more wouldn't breakeven with 35% falls. Dances with Sheeple will never breakeven whatever the crash.

Do you know how much you've invested in project crash yourself so far or is the principle of buying at fair value more important?

I don't believe I've ever said that I've "invested in project crash". You appear to have lumped me in with hpcers because I do not espouse rampant house price inflation........

wotsthat · 13 August 2014 at 6:48AM

gbsilp wrote: »

I don't believe I've ever said that I've "invested in project crash". You appear to have lumped me in with hpcers because I do not espouse rampant house price inflation........

Lucky you. Just waiting for a real terms crash of 35% before you buy and not having to pay rent during the wait.

Rota · 13 August 2014 at 6:58AM

gbsilp wrote: »

Of course, I am referring to real wage inflation.....

Now I really hope you are right. However, 35% real wage inflation is a bit like hoping for a 35% real drop in house prices.

Rota · 13 August 2014 at 7:01AM

lukeh23 wrote: »

Because I don't want to live in London.

Hold on, we have been through this before...

Is your username 'Rota' as you keep going round in circles?

My bad there Luke. Can you tell me which region you live in?

wotsthat · 13 August 2014 at 7:06AM

lukeh23 wrote: »

Because I did not have any money then (unless you're talking about London).

Also for the record, I am not here to predict a crash. I am just someone saving hard to get a place for my young family. So if property in my area dropped by 20% it would improve my chances a great deal.

I would like nothing more then to get out of renting an own a place.

I just feel its a pretty dire situation to see my hard earned savings get 1% in an ISA whereas a house see's 10%.

Do you ever wish you'd just kept paying the mortgage instead of selling? The HPC'ers here would have you believe that's the best thing you ever did - what do you think?

That's vaguely the point here. Buying at the peak is just unlucky (none of us can predict house prices), but compounding will ensure you'll catch up in no time. If nothing else you'd get a much better return than 1% by overpaying a mortgage. Yields ex London are higher so that's dragging you down every month.

Instead of waiting for a 20% crash why not buy a house that costs 20% less and start to get compounding working with you instead of against?

wotsthat · 13 August 2014 at 8:20AM

Rota wrote: »

Now I really hope you are right. However, 35% real wage inflation is a bit like hoping for a 35% real drop in house prices.

There does seem to be somewhat of a contradiction doesn't there?

A buying in point is when prices fall by 35% or average wages increase by 35%. i.e. the economy either tanks or takes off like a rocket. If it tanks it'll take wages with it and if it rockets it'll do the same.

Sounds like a formula that can never end in buying.

Also noticeable that the only people who have mentioned a price at which they'd buy have declared themselves non HPC'ers.