'We've reached a tipping point' Signs of house price weakness

robmatic

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Your flat is in Edinburgh? There is a link on this thread about a flat in Gorgie trying to sell for similar to what it went for ten years ago. Of course yours was in one of the "special" post codes if IRC?

Yeah, it's in central Edinburgh. I don't know about special postcodes, I just bought in an area that I liked and where I could walk to work/the pub. Saving a few hundred pounds a month in comparison to the rent was a nice benefit on top of this.

What's your point about prices Gorgie in 2004? They went nuts for a couple of years after that and then there was a big slump. Are you trying to demonstrate that people who bought back then are already a big chunk of the way through paying off their mortgage and no worse off in terms of property value?

ukcarper

Crashy_Time wrote: »

All fair points, except you may be being over generous with projected rent payments? If I had wanted to own and stay in long term the 40k flats I viewed in Edinburgh in the late 90`s, it would have made sense to grab one and pay down the mortgage as quickly as possible. I didn`t want to own and live in them then, and I don`t now, and they are heading back to 40k anyway IMO. I didn`t see the massive housing bubble coming in the late 90`s, and anyway I prefer to save and invest money rather than taking punts on illiquid assets like property . Best case one of those flats peaked at being "worth" 140k in 2007, who cares, with mortgage interest and costs it is hardly worth the years of living in it to make a small windfall (and also have to buy/rent somewhere else) And of course people trying to sell them now are struggling to do so.

Did you not think that prices would rise from the cheapest they had bed in relation to earnings as in the 90s that is what they were.

Crashy_Time

wotsthat wrote: »

All of the calculations you've been presented with show, on a cash flow basis, that it's cheaper to buy with a mortgage than renting and hoping. You are a case in point - you can never breakeven whatever the size of any crash is.

It might be different in the future for today's new starters. I'm not as confident in my predictive skills as you are with yours - that's why I bought - it came with a virtual guarantee of home ownership. You ought to be questioning your own ability to predict the future.

Your strategy doesn't even have an end game. You're so wrapped up in other people's actions you haven't considered what price you would be willing to pay.

You see you are so wrapped in the idea of Must Buy, that you can`t consider alternatives.


I have stated before that my end game is having multiple years living expenses on hand in liquid assets. In fact it is not an end game, it is an on going game, and my very low rental costs help immensely.

Crashy_Time

Rota wrote: »

At what % drop do you find your local market fair value and purchase a property?

At what point do you accept that other market participants affect the price you pay?

robmatic

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Doesn`t help Robmatic though does it? People buying in the "special" postcodes of Edinburgh in 2010 probably thought their flat would be worth 50k more by now, not 5, that hardly covers solicitors costs?

I think you'll find I'm fairly comfortable with my home ownership situation!

ukcarper

Crashy_Time wrote: »

You see you are so wrapped in the idea of Must Buy, that you can`t consider alternatives.


I have stated before that my end game is having multiple years living expenses on hand in liquid assets. In fact it is not an end game, it is an on going game, and my very low rental costs help immensely.

What you don't seem to grasp is you are paying more in rent than on the mortgage than if you had bought that flat 17 years ago (if you had spent the same on mortgage repayments). You would the have been able to save over £8000 over those 2 years and can carry on saving £4000 a year. Or you could sell flat for £40k add it to £8000 you have already saved and be back to square one.

Crashy_Time

robmatic wrote: »

I think you'll find I'm fairly comfortable with my home ownership situation!

You did say earlier that a tenant subsidises your lifestyle? This means the tenant could pull the plug on your lifestyle at any time?

Rota

Crashy_Time wrote: »

At what point do you accept that other market participants affect the price you pay?

100% of the time.

So come on, man up and give us a number. Or we all know you are just a trolling loser.

Rota

Crashy_Time wrote: »

You did say earlier that a tenant subsidises your lifestyle? This means the tenant could pull the plug on your lifestyle at any time?

Then another tenant would replace the current one. So what?

Crashy_Time

ukcarper wrote: »

What you don't seem to grasp is you are paying more in rent than on the mortgage you would have bought that flat 2 years ago if you had spent the same on mortgage repayments. You would the have been able to save over £8000 over those 2 years and can carry on saving £4000 a year. Or you could sell flat for £40k add it to £8000 you have already saved and be back to square one.

Problem is I didn`t want to own those 40k flats then or now, and I didn`t want to live in them for all these years, so what point are you trying to make? Are you saying that people should just buy over any other consideration?