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how many REALLY think there'll be a crash rather than a stabilisation ?

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Comments

  • poppy10_2
    poppy10_2 Posts: 6,588 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 1,000 Posts Name Dropper
    ixwood wrote: »
    IO isn't the terrible thing everyone makes out. In theory you could do a lot better with a IO than a repayment. Assuming you have a suitable investment.

    Ah, that's the key assumption.

    The point is, the majority of people who take on IO mortgages have no alternative investment vehicle at all - the whole reason they are getting IO mortgages is because they can't afford a repayment mortgage. Banks these days don't even ask about the alternative investment vehicle for fear of being held liable if it can be proved they knew the customer was doing absolutely nothing to tackle the capital repayment part of the mortgage.

    So yes, it's like an endowment mortgage, without the endowment.
    poppy10
  • the tide is already turning im afraid:T
    when it goes out a shed load of equity will go with it, and we will see who has been swimming naked.

    it was badly needed though, and is just part of a cycle which is natural. low interest rates, BTL sheeple that thought it would carry on forever and the worst of all....GREED has made the boom part of the cycle longer and faster than it should naturally have been, now we will see a correction, and here is where the pain will start 100%guaranteed.

    btw i am a HPC'er and i will have sympathy for some, but for the majority who for the past 10 years have seen houses as a second income or a way to make a quick buck i will :T :rotfl: :beer: :j :D:p

    ie those that spent 10k on a conservatory in the belief it put 20k on their house price.:rotfl: those that tried to make a quick buck like the BTL brigade are going to PAY worse than anyone, flats in many city centre locations are now seeing 10-15% drops if you see behind the silly asking prices. ie nottingham is one of the 1st. 18% of all apartments in notts city centre are EMPTY....FACT. these are the fact that will take the market down, with hte BTL brigade copping the worst
    when the tide goes out we shall see who has been swimming naked
  • dolce_vita
    dolce_vita Posts: 1,031 Forumite
    Welcome to MSE smugbear.

    Bit quiet on HPC.co.uk is it?

    :rolleyes:
    dolce vita's stock reply templates

    #1. The people that run these "sell your house and rent back" companies are generally lying thieves and are best avoided

    #2. This time next year house prices in general will be lower than they are now

    #3. Cheap houses are a good thing not a bad thing
  • mr.broderick
    mr.broderick Posts: 3,778 Forumite
    1,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    Any chance of someone starting an interesting thread?

    At some point bubbles burst and asset prices then return to their fundamental values. When this happens, the sharp downward correction of asset prices can lead to a sharp contraction in the economy, both directly, through effects on investment, and indirectly, through the effects of reduced household wealth on consumer spending, when and if this happens which quite a few peeps on here are wishing for, we will all be in big trouble..Be careful what you wish for. Im a str by the way, seriously thinking of buying again from a strong position.
  • dolce_vita
    dolce_vita Posts: 1,031 Forumite
    Any chance of someone starting an interesting thread?

    At some point bubbles burst and asset prices then return to their fundamental values. When this happens, the sharp downward correction of asset prices can lead to a sharp contraction in the economy, both directly, through effects on investment, and indirectly, through the effects of reduced household wealth on consumer spending, when and if this happens which quite a few peeps on here are wishing for, we will all be in big trouble..Be careful what you wish for. Im a str by the way, seriously thinking of buying again from a strong position.


    OOOOO. You're a clever boy aren't you?

    ;)
    dolce vita's stock reply templates

    #1. The people that run these "sell your house and rent back" companies are generally lying thieves and are best avoided

    #2. This time next year house prices in general will be lower than they are now

    #3. Cheap houses are a good thing not a bad thing
  • dolce_vita wrote: »
    Welcome to MSE smugbear.

    Bit quiet on HPC.com is it?

    :rolleyes:

    Quiet?...not in the last month or so. wonder why that is? ;)

    I dont want to see a recession either, but too much wealth/imagined wealth has been created by HPI. This has given sheeple a false sense of security and is not healthy, neither are 40yr mortgages 6x salary, and IO mortgages. it is for the best in the long run and is inevitable. get interest rates up to around the 8%mark (1year away) and lets get this show on the road, the quicker the better for EVERYONE, those who own crappy flats and new build shoe boxes included.
    im not an evil person who will pour scorn on peoples downfall :confused: as some of my close friends and family have just bought...i fear for them.
    very roughly 20%drops minimum, 40%prison block complexes of flats and stuff in "up and coming areas" ie previously shat holes where land was bought cheap to build shoe boxes opposite the gas works and council estates. :T
    as a general trend when people realise their house wont make them money they will think more carefully how they will spend it. as always location,location,location will decide where on the scale the 20 to 40% drops will be seen.
    when the tide goes out we shall see who has been swimming naked
  • dolce_vita
    dolce_vita Posts: 1,031 Forumite
    I'd agree with most of that.

    By the way, as well as IO, 6x salary and 40yr mortgages you forgot to mention shared ownership.
    All of these things are indicators that we are in an overpriced bubble and a correction is certainly due.
    dolce vita's stock reply templates

    #1. The people that run these "sell your house and rent back" companies are generally lying thieves and are best avoided

    #2. This time next year house prices in general will be lower than they are now

    #3. Cheap houses are a good thing not a bad thing
  • dolce_vita wrote: »
    I'd agree with most of that.

    By the way, as well as IO, 6x salary and 40yr mortgages you forgot to mention shared ownership.
    All of these things are indicators that we are in an overpriced bubble and a correction is certainly due.

    thanks dolce.i dont believe it! a HPC'er being agreed with on another forum, must be a sign of the times.
    i predict bottom to be 2010/2011 and i expect this to be in line with 2002/2003 prices roughly. therefore if you bought before 2003 you will not have no neg-eq. it;s the 2005 onwards that are going to suffer, unless IR's take everyone on a shaky ride
    when the tide goes out we shall see who has been swimming naked
  • Gorgeous_George
    Gorgeous_George Posts: 7,964 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture Combo Breaker

    ... tried to make a quick buck like the BTL brigade are going to PAY worse than anyone...

    ... these are the fact that will take the market down, with hte BTL brigade copping the worst

    Ok, as I always rise to the BTL bashers' bait, a short lesson in numbers.

    If I sell me BTL I am liable for CGT at 40% (after certain allowances). If I sell my residential property, I am not.

    Therefore, a £50K fall in house prices will reduce my BTL CGT liability by £20K making the £50K fall impact my pocket by just £30K. On the other hand, I will 'feel' the full £50K fall in value of my home. Whatever happens, I will own a home with a modest mortgage outstanding and a BTL property that has paid for itself in 4 years ( I was lucky/worked hard).

    To conclude, some BTLers may suffer, many weill not.

    GG
    There are 10 types of people in this world. Those who understand binary and those that don't.
  • dolce_vita
    dolce_vita Posts: 1,031 Forumite
    thanks dolce.i dont believe it! a HPC'er being agreed with on another forum, must be a sign of the times.

    If you stick around you will be surprised at the number of people here who are sympathetic to your views.

    Some of them (myself included) were around during the last crash and have the benefit of experience and realise that present conditions are unsustainable. The signs seem eeringly similar to the end of the last boom and something is going to have to give.
    my money is on a fall in house prices to bring them into line with wages.

    I say this as the owner of 4 properties.
    dolce vita's stock reply templates

    #1. The people that run these "sell your house and rent back" companies are generally lying thieves and are best avoided

    #2. This time next year house prices in general will be lower than they are now

    #3. Cheap houses are a good thing not a bad thing
This discussion has been closed.
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