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MPC may raise Interest Rates to 6% in August!

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Comments

  • Rover
    Rover Posts: 323 Forumite
    .25 to 6% in September.
    Also wouldn't bet against more, short-mid term.

    Significantly 6% is here to stay for some time.
    anger, denial, acceptance ;)
  • Generali
    Generali Posts: 36,411 Forumite
    10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    Rover wrote: »
    .25 to 6% in September.
    Also wouldn't bet against more, short-mid term.

    Significantly 6% is here to stay for some time.

    Stories like this make me think that rates are going to be on the way back down before too long.
    WestLB AG, Germany's third-largest state bank, has no ``liquidity crisis,'' spokesman Hans Albers said, after a report about possible losses at its U.S. unit.

    The banks have lent too much to too many and it is starting to look like they're in the brown stuff.

    There are all sorts of nasty rumours around today apparently.
  • free4440273
    free4440273 Posts: 38,438 Forumite
    Rover wrote: »
    .25 to 6% in September.
    Also wouldn't bet against more, short-mid term.

    Significantly 6% is here to stay for some time.

    yeah, i'd agree with that. depends what one means by "some time". i think they will actually start cutting as early as january (from 6 per cent that is). :)
    BLOODBATH IN THE EVENING THEN? :shocked: OR PERHAPS THE AFTERNOON? OR THE MORNING? OH, FORGET THIS MALARKEY!

    THE KILLERS :cool:

    THE PUNISHER :dance: MATURE CHEDDAR ADDICT:cool:
  • Guy_Montag
    Guy_Montag Posts: 2,291 Forumite
    1,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    Generali wrote: »
    Stories like this make me think that rates are going to be on the way back down before too long.



    The banks have lent too much to too many and it is starting to look like they're in the brown stuff.

    There are all sorts of nasty rumours around today apparently.

    I thought German banks were quite careful about their lending.
    "Mrs. Pench, you've won the car contest, would you like a triumph spitfire or 3000 in cash?" He smiled.
    Mrs. Pench took the money. "What will you do with it all? Not that it's any of my business," he giggled.
    "I think I'll become an alcoholic," said Betty.
  • Generali
    Generali Posts: 36,411 Forumite
    10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    Apparently not.

    It seems that banks don't even want to lend to each other right now. Dollar LIBOR and EURIBOR (the interbank lending rates for US$ and €) have both shot up. The ECB has had to step in and say that they will lend to anyone that asks at 4% (that means anyone in the market, they're not going to lend to you and me at that rate). The reason for this seems to be that nobody is certain that the bank they lend to will be there in the morning.

    When I was banging on about not being able to borrow money if it all goes wrong in the mkts, this is what I meant. If the banks won't lend to each other, what chance will you have of borrowing more cash?

    To clarify, this is still all within the bounds of what I understand to be normal but it is an example of what can happen.
  • wolvoman
    wolvoman Posts: 1,195 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 1,000 Posts Name Dropper Combo Breaker
    This is all looking like the way I've predicted it (just bought a place on a variable offset so it's slightly vested!)

    I think the extra 0.25% rise is really touch and go, September seems certain to be a hold and if the BoE gets wind of any downturn in either house prices, retail sales, money supply figures etc. then they'll prolong that hold.

    We are now exactly at the 2 year point when the cut to 4.5% was made which prompted so much remortgaging to fixed rates, so from here to the end of there is when all those on 2 year fixes will get hit with the higher rates. The BoE must assume this will dampen retail, service and housing demand in some way - which might be enough to counter-balance the inflationary aspect of high oil prices.

    The Bank must also be mighty please by the lack of wage inflation going on.

    My forecast:
    Rates will be at 5.75%-6% at year end.
    Then reductions of 0.25% in the first 6 months of 2008 and a further 0.25% later in 2008. So next year they'll either be 5.25% or 5.5%.
  • Generali
    Generali Posts: 36,411 Forumite
    10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    You won't get 140-1 against a rate cut now I reckon! My bet is starting to look better and better each day.
  • Melissa177
    Melissa177 Posts: 1,727 Forumite
    wolvoman wrote: »

    My forecast:
    Rates will be at 5.75%-6% at year end.
    Then reductions of 0.25% in the first 6 months of 2008 and a further 0.25% later in 2008. So next year they'll either be 5.25% or 5.5%.

    Almost exactly what my bf was saying last night.
    Errors of opinion may be tolerated where reason is left free to combat it. - Jefferson
  • wolvoman
    wolvoman Posts: 1,195 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 1,000 Posts Name Dropper Combo Breaker
    Melissa177 wrote: »
    Almost exactly what my bf was saying last night.

    Yep, the variable rate deals lately have been excellent.
    Those people fixing now on 5.9% or so for 2 or 3 years might regret it.
  • free4440273
    free4440273 Posts: 38,438 Forumite
    still sticking to my guns - a .50 increase by november :)

    Seems like the BoE is the only major central bank not pumping money into the system at the moment (after the ECB and Fed announcements). Perhaps the BofE really does mean it this time: no bail outs, and more (perhaps final) rate increase(s) - be it .25 or .50.
    BLOODBATH IN THE EVENING THEN? :shocked: OR PERHAPS THE AFTERNOON? OR THE MORNING? OH, FORGET THIS MALARKEY!

    THE KILLERS :cool:

    THE PUNISHER :dance: MATURE CHEDDAR ADDICT:cool:
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