The Coming Zombie Robot Driving Apocalypse of You

cells

antrobus wrote: »

The global energy market is worth about $6,000 trillion. The global taxi market is worth about $100 billion. When my alien friends finally get around to sending me the blueprints for their cold fusion reactor, I shall be able to buy your driverless taxi business from petty cash.

http://www.leonardo-energy.org/blog/world-energy-expenditures
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/uber-isnt-worth-17-billion/

Total world GDP isnt even $100T so what makes you think global energy is worth 60x everything?


anyway at todays prices

oil = ~ $1.7 T
gas = ~ $0.4T
coal = ~ $0.4T
rest = trivial

total = ~$2.5T

vs about $5T for the value of self drive tech

so about twice as important as "free" energy

antrobus

cells wrote: »

Total world GDP isnt even $100T so what makes you think global energy is worth 60x everything?


anyway at todays prices

oil = ~ $1.7 T
gas = ~ $0.4T
coal = ~ $0.4T
rest = trivial

total = ~$2.5T

vs about $5T for the value of self drive tech

so about twice as important as "free" energy

Sorry my bad it was $6,000 billion.

But the quoted source does state that;

More than US$6,000bn -10% of the world Gross Domestic Product (GDP)- is spent each year in the world for energy purposes (figures in US$2005ppp). This places energy second to health care expenditures in many countries; and in some cases first.

Which is 60 times the size of the taxi market.

Your argument that "If their software can make $15k a year per taxi (replacing the $20-60k human) that's > $150B profit per year" is clearly flawed if the global taxi market is worth only $100bn.

As a supplier of self drive tech to the taxi market, your market is clearly going to be only a fraction of that $100bn, and the amount of profit you make on that fraction will be only a percentage of that. I therefore suspect that you have overestimated the profit potential of the supply of self drive tech to the taxi market by a factor of 100.

You have made the typical mistake that many naive entrepeneurs make. You start off the detail and work upwards and come up with a very big number and think you're going to be rich. That's not the way you do it. You start by asking 'how big is the market', and then work down to the detail.

So when my alien friends do finally get around to sending me the blueprints for their cold fusion reactor, I will be able to buy your driverless taxi business from petty cash.

cells

antrobus wrote: »

Sorry my bad it was $6,000 billion.

But the quoted source does state that;

More than US$6,000bn -10% of the world Gross Domestic Product (GDP)- is spent each year in the world for energy purposes (figures in US$2005ppp). This places energy second to health care expenditures in many countries; and in some cases first.

Which is 60 times the size of the taxi market.

Your argument that "If their software can make $15k a year per taxi (replacing the $20-60k human) that's > $150B profit per year" is clearly flawed if the global taxi market is worth only $100bn.

As a supplier of self drive tech to the taxi market, your market is clearly going to be only a fraction of that $100bn, and the amount of profit you make on that fraction will be only a percentage of that. I therefore suspect that you have overestimated the profit potential of the supply of self drive tech to the taxi market by a factor of 100.

You have made the typical mistake that many naive entrepeneurs make. You start off the detail and work upwards and come up with a very big number and think you're going to be rich. That's not the way you do it. You start by asking 'how big is the market', and then work down to the detail.

So when my alien friends do finally get around to sending me the blueprints for their cold fusion reactor, I will be able to buy your driverless taxi business from petty cash.

I was not talking about profit you ostrich but value added,

energy doesn't profit a company $2.5T that's its value added the profit of which is a lot smaller

and once again your $6T figure is wrong, its probably based on $110 oil and coal/gas prices at some silly spot prices rather than the true prices they are sold at (eg PRB coal at $10)

as for the taxi business, thats not the end of self drive tech but the very beginning

For instance I just paid today close to £1000 to insure my car, imagine self drive tech reduces accident claims by 90% thats a £900 saving for someone like me. multiply by 35 million and you get a big number for just the little island we live on


I will do the guesstimate sums for you as you seem interested.

UK is 65m so multiply by 100x to get a developed world of 6.5B people in the not too distant future. There are 35m cars in the uk so such a rich world would have 3.5B cars


Cost of a car (exact figures not that important just go with it)

$500 insurance
$2000 depreciation
$1000 fuel
$1000 other
$4500 / pa cost

lets say self drive tech reduces insurance by 90% and the other costs by 50% you get a $2450 saving per car

multiply by 3.5 billion cars = ~$8.5 trillion


then add commercial vehicles too and you are probably past $10T


so i will say again, this tech is probably WORTH MORE TO HUMANITY than self sustaining fusion


all fossil fuels value to humanity ~$2.5T
self drive tech direct value to a developed world ~$10T

thats before you even consider possible extra businesses and benefits of self drive tech and their value. eg no traffic jams. quicker journeys. lower need to spend on trains for nations etc etc


The value/need/opportunity of self drive vehicles is so huge few people understand the massive change it will bring. it will imo be as important this century as electricity was last century

Generali

Claire Perry pencils in 2031 for the zombie driving apocalypse:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/road-and-rail-transport/11403469/Driverless-cars-will-mean-motorists-dont-even-need-to-look-at-the-road.html

This woman has just signed your death warrant*:




*she hasn't

Generali

cells wrote: »

**sums**
all fossil fuels value to humanity ~$2.5T
self drive tech direct value to a developed world ~$10T

Your sums don't add up. $1,000 in fuel for cars x 3,500,000,000 cars = $3,500,000,000,000 yet the total cost of fossil fuels is $2,500,000,000,000...?

Interesting that more people are interested in arguing the toss about a referendum that the SNP already lost than talking about the coming zombie driving apocalypse. I thought I had come up with a 'click bait' headline there and would be getting millions of Daily Mail readers on here explaining how immigration would speed the zombie driving apocalypse or that Princess Di would have stopped it by increasing house prices.

antrobus

cells wrote: »

I was not talking about profit you ostrich but value added,......

Makes little difference. If the size of the market is only $100 bn dollars, then that places a limit on the amount of extra value added as well.

Generali wrote: »

Your sums don't add up....

Well, yes, but I don't think he gets it.:)

Besides, I've worked that there's a significant problem with this idea of self-drive taxis (delivery vehicles, whatever). Which is, what are they going to do when the fuel warning light starts flashing? Send out a distress call? Will the operators of such vehicles need a back-up fleet of emergency response vehicles manned by humans working 15 hour shifts to keep them on the road?:)

Me and my alien friends are therefore going to develop the tech for a chain of robotised re-fuelling stations. Once we've cornered that market, all these driverless vehicles will have no choice but to pay the [STRIKE]extortionate[/STRIKE] perfectly reasonable fees we will charge for this service, thereby ensuring that all the profit/value added is ours.

So we may not bother buying this self-drive taxi business out of petty cash. We'll probably save it up and start buying some countries instead.

antrobus

Generali wrote: »

... I thought I had come up with a 'click bait' headline there and would be getting millions of Daily Mail readers on here explaining how immigration would speed the zombie driving apocalypse or that Princess Di would have stopped it by increasing house prices.

I would have thought that the combination of the coming zombie driving apocalypse and the coming zombie re-fuelling apocalypse, would dramatically reduce the employment opportunities for Polish taxi-drivers and suchlike and might therefore dramtically reduce the level of immigration.

I'm not sure about house prices 'tho.

Generali

antrobus wrote: »

I would have thought that the combination of the coming zombie driving apocalypse and the coming zombie re-fuelling apocalypse, would dramatically reduce the employment opportunities for Polish taxi-drivers and suchlike and might therefore dramtically reduce the level of immigration.

I'm not sure about house prices 'tho.

Praps it should have been the coming Polish/Greek Zombie Mini Cab Apocalypse of Green Shield Stamps. Get the anti-immigrant and baby boomer click baitiers.

globalds

Don't feel like being driven around ?

Maybe you could " Drink your milk and get on your horse "


http://www.wired.com/2015/02/creepy-collective-behavior-boston-dynamics-new-robot-dog/

Ok ..maybe more reindeer sized than horse ..

One is cute ..paired up they seem a bit scary.

michaels

The BBC HYS on automatic cars was almost exclusively negative, I was really surprised as I can't see any downsides.