The Quant's House Price Diary

mayonnaise

Percy1983 wrote: »

I thought the same, one takes hardwork the other is just luck.

When Mrs. Percy bailed you out, was that hard work or just luck?

Percy1983

mayonnaise wrote: »

When Mrs. Percy bailed you out, was that hard work or just luck?

Still can't remember any bail out

I do remember me and the Mrs swapping debts around to reduce interest rates for both us and then paying everything off.

So sounds like good thinking and hard work...

So back to it without a personal attack on me can you tell me how it isn't based on luck when benefitting from HPI?

mayonnaise

Percy1983 wrote: »

So back to it without a personal attack on me can you tell me how it isn't based on luck when benefitting from HPI?

I don't think the quant's aim is just to sit there, watch HPI and congratulate himself.
In another thread he explained it:

thequant wrote: »

Well yes, Have bought a place much bigger than I need. I need only 1 bed but have 4 beds as I want to max out the mortgage I could get to increase my leverage.

Have bought for £375k, property now worth £450K.

House price predictions are that it will reach £600k within next five years.

With spare rooms, am planning to rent them out soon, so I can pay mortgage down quicker.

When house reaches £600k, am going to move up the ladder to £1 mill house with more bedrooms, rent out and pay mortgage down.

When equity in house from further house prices rises and down payments on mortgage equals £1 mill will sell up.

Plan is to then downsize back to my homeland in the "norf", buy property for there for £250k which will be a decent size home up there.

bank the other £750K which will provide pension fund for rest of life while living rent free in a nice little village which doesn''t have people on benefit and the associated crime which goes with such people.

So as I said before, similar to a MFW challenge. It's a plan to climb the ladder and be MFW in record time in order to downsize. Timing the market will be crucial and I wish him all the best.

chucky

Percy1983 wrote: »

Still can't remember any bail out

I do remember me and the Mrs swapping debts around to reduce interest rates for both us and then paying everything off.

So sounds like good thinking and hard work...

So back to it without a personal attack on me can you tell me how it isn't based on luck when benefitting from HPI?

Is that actually legal?

Did the company that you borrowed the money off know that you were borrowing the money for the reason that you didn't intend to?

wotsthat

Percy1983 wrote: »

So back to it without a personal attack on me can you tell me how it isn't based on luck when benefitting from HPI?

You might not want HPI but you knew you'd bought after a crash and prices would likely recover with the economy. Plus you had the opportunity to fix at historic low rates.

Some luck involved but looks like you made a good decision - don't beat yourself up about it.

chucknorris

Percy1983 wrote: »

So back to it without a personal attack on me can you tell me how it isn't based on luck when benefitting from HPI?

I can tell you that, because when you analyse and weigh up the probabilities and balance the potential upside and downside, then decide that it is the correct time to invest and do so, then it isn't based upon luck.


The Quant is working to plan, it may or may not work, but it is nevertheless a plan that he is working to.

Percy1983

chucky wrote: »

Is that actually legal?

Did the company that you borrowed the money off know that you were borrowing the money for the reason that you didn't intend to?

In short it was a credit card shuffle across 2 names, they never asked what I wanted the cards for and I never told them. They gave us unsecured debts to do with what we pleases, so we did.

wotsthat wrote: »

You might not want HPI but you knew you'd bought after a crash and prices would likely recover with the economy. Plus you had the opportunity to fix at historic low rates.

Some luck involved but looks like you made a good decision - don't beat yourself up about it.

I am the first to admit that the timing was pure luck on my front, it just so happens we started a plan to clear everything down and then save a deposit, in that time prices hit the bottom.

The maintaining 2 perfect credit files was where the work was for us to the mortgage acceptance was nothing to do with luck but was based on our own actions.

I suppose my problem isn't so much how lucky some have been, but how they try and pretend its something more than luck.

wotsthat

Percy1983 wrote: »

I am the first to admit that the timing was pure luck on my front, it just so happens we started a plan to clear everything down and then save a deposit, in that time prices hit the bottom.

How did you decide whether renting or buying was best in the first place - flip a coin?

Fella

thequant wrote: »

The plan is to call the top of the market. We are at the beginning of another boom, it will be sustained for quite a while. But no doubt a bust will come at some point. The clever bit is working out when this will happen.

Trying to time the market is a poor strategy. That's not to say it won't work, on average it works 50% of the time. And fails the other 50%.

There are better strategies out there.

Percy1983

wotsthat wrote: »

How did you decide whether renting or buying was best in the first place - flip a coin?

Well that bit is simple, pay my own mortgage or pay one for a stanger... no brainer.

Of course of course have a good income and realistic expectations mean it was possible, the problem is for many is the above choice is a no brainer but also not possible.