The budget - not quite live

vivatifosi

I've just watched the first half an hour of the budget before noticing Hamish's request to live post it. Will rewind live TV the half an hour that I can and start posting as much as I can

Growth forecast 2016 stays 2.6%
Grwth fcst 2015 up 0.1% to 2.3%
for 2014 up 0.3% from 2.4 to 2.7%

Fastest fall in youth claimant count since 1997.

OBR predict 1.5m more jobs, unemployment down, wages up.

Record no. in work, record no. of women in work.

vivatifosi

Public finances:

Was borrowing £1 in every £4. IMF now says UK achieving largest reduction in both headline and structural deficits of any economy in the world.

OBR revised down underlying deficit in every year of their forecast.

Deficit was 11% will be 6.6%, lower than forecast and down 1/3. Will be 5.5%. Deficit to disappear 2018? Only if plan continued.

JasonLVC

Bingo Hall duty halved to 10% to protect the industry.


Paid for by adding 5% onto FOBT (Fixed Odd Terminals) duty.


Bonus - no more VAT on the fuel used by air ambulances, about bloomin' time.

vivatifosi

Faster growth alone will not balance books. Need to be more cuts.

Underlying cash borrowing:

Was borrowing £157bn pa. This year £108bn. £12bn less than forecast last year and even down since Autumn Statement. Gradual downwards decrease in borrowing.

2018/19 will have a small surplus, no borrowing.

Lower borrowing and small deficit = less debt. Debt to fall to 78.3% 2016-17 then 76.5%, 75.2% 18-19.

JasonLVC

Tobacco duty up 2% above inflation.


1p off duty for beer


Whiskey and cider duty frozen.

vivatifosi

Bank of England providing support needed to businesses and family. New appointments made (see other news). Reconfirm remit for MPC, including 2% CPI.

Asked committee to be particularly vigilant re issues in the housing market.

Building foreign account reserves.

£1 coin to be replaced by three penny bit style coin which is highly secure.

vivatifosi

Need to learn from the past. Every time a post war govt has got over its problems, spending has returned to previous levels within 3 years - which would mean debt returning to close to 100% of GDP.

Will not squander hard won gains.

A balanced current budget does not secure that. Need to run a surplus in the good years. In addition to cuts this and next year, will seek support from parliament to continue cuts into next parliament.

vivatifosi

0.7% will continue to go to world's poorest.

Prudent management of departmental finances eessential.



£1bn underspend for 2015/16 will be made permanent.

Difficult decisions re public pay and pensions still need to be made.

vivatifosi

Benefits:
Will seek support in Parliament to pass next week.
Full list of benefits included in cap listed today in main doc (not on budget live).

Only pensions and cyclical unemployment benefits excluded.

Never again should we allow its cost to spiral or pay not to work.

Any government in the future wanting to spend more on benefits will need to be honest with the public, held accountable by parliament and meet cap.

dryhat

Massive changes to ISA and pension rules.

JasonLVC

Oooh.


The 10p rate of tax on savings income to be scrapped.