ERUDIO student loans help

erudioed

Nice one sarebear. So it is email correspondence between Arrow Global and BIS and the calculations.
Interesting BIS mail Erudio but are unsure if they are sending it to the correct person, then Arrow end up replying that "Having that threshold fall by more that a7% drop is quite a surprise" and then request the calculation on the 7th August...which seems to be provided.
Concerning the numbers, i look forward to hearing what everyone else makes of it.

Rosskie

Good to hear pluthero.

Does anyone have a PDF of the Erudio DAF -found an SLC one in the thread but need Erudio - actually, only the last page (got up to section 7)

cheers

Ed-1

Essentially, the additional rate tax cut from 50% to 45% in April 2013 distorted the April 2013 earnings figures (as workers delayed pay to take advantage of the cut), making them unusually high. The knock on effect of this is that when compared to April 2012 (for the 2013/14 deferment threshold) the percentage change is skewed to the upside (3.85%) resulting in a disproportionately higher threshold last year but when compared to April 2014 (for this year's 2014/15 deferment threshold) the percentage change is skewed to the downside (-1.65%) resulting in a disproportionately lower threshold this year. This can be easily seen by comparing the January 2014 projected earnings figure of £33853 which was much higher than the actual April 2014 earnings figure of £32370.

Now that the April 2013 tax cut has fallen out of the calculations this 'threshold turbulence' should vanish considerably and I'd expect next year's threshold to come out closer to the figure in the previous years at £27500+.

It does make you wonder why the government didn't hang on to these loans for a while longer as they must've known a threshold drop was coming. Perhaps with write-off dates getting ever closer, they thought they'd get more money by selling earlier than they would get in repayments from more people earning over the threshold.

erudioed

Lungboy wrote: »

Sadly, those figures appear, at a quick glance at least, to add up.

Maybe Martin Lewis will scan it and see if all is in order. We cant expect anything more than the evidence if something seems originally off, so this is good news. As long as they can evidence that the collusion many of us suspect is happening is not taking place, then that can only be good news. And it gives us a little insight into the communications.

@Rosskie thats good, we will just have to wait and see if someone turns something as definitive up, although you seem to have done that thus far!

erudioed

Here is something for anyone looking into the threshold figures that might be of use from my twatter page:

1. Withheld name
   
   Looks like drop is due to a statistical anomaly in AWE for Apr'13. Bonuses were shifted for tax reasons
   
   
   
   
2. 
   Martin Lewis ‏This was something explained (in diff context) by the economist in the TImes the other week
   
   

anna2007

Thanks again Sarebear78 for getting the info for us

I agree with Ed-1 (although I wasn't aware that the tax rate had dropped, which explains the skewed figures) - the AWE for April 2013 is unusually high, so when comparing to the following April 2014, there's been a 1.65% drop. The explanation given in the ONS Labour Market Statistics bulletin is:

"The single month growth rate for total pay for April 2014 (minus 1.7%) was the lowest since March 2009. This reflects an unusually high growth rate for April 2013, due to some companies which usually paid bonuses in March paying them in April".

I've checked the mean gross earnings figures and the AWE figures for this year and last to the ONS data, and they're all accurate, and so are the calculations.

At least we know now how the calculation's done and that there's nothing sinister going on. Importantly, it also means that there shouldn't be further significant drops in the threshold in the years to come (unless average earnings and growth go down the toilet!).

anna2007

Rosskie wrote: »

Good to hear pluthero.

Does anyone have a PDF of the Erudio DAF -found an SLC one in the thread but need Erudio - actually, only the last page (got up to section 7)

cheers

There's a blank DAF at post#1409, page 71.

erudioed

Heres a new FOI request just been posted to keep an eye on. Its one i would certainly like to see answered:
https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/erudio_student_loans_4#incoming-557671

Sarebear78

Anna2007 - this wasn't actually from my request, but from someone else's I am sure the same thing will appear on my request shortly.

Thanks to the person who requested this

erudioed

heres another FOI request answer today. This one reporting info to CRAs. It is a rather half hearted reply pointing towards Erudio's website and repeating the standard reply... its upto Erudio but has to be within the original T&Cs (without offering the necessary meaning of that last part, i.e. being drawn into saying if it is or isnt in the T&Cs):
https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/224180/response/557494/attach/4/FOI%202014%2017916%20Mr%20K%20MacDonald%20for%20clearance%20v2.pdf