Help with maths

chineplate

Rollinghome wrote: »

That's arguably the most important factor and the most difficult to calculate. We've got a south-facing pitched roof but, whatever the sums, wouldn't want panels on our roof, or on neighbouring roofs, and would be a major downer on any house I wanted to buy. The higher the value of the house then the more likely the possible loss of value will outweigh any other gain.

Because I wouldn't consider them I haven't bothered looking into them but the other point that occurred to me is how far will the technology move on over the next 20 years? Will they become smaller and more efficient and by 2034 will those of 2014 look as trendy as a 1980's mobile?

Don't forget, it needed people to buy the the 1980's mobile to justify the investment for future development.

lisyloo

Also - no-one mentioned the estimated 35 tonnes of Co2 saved.

It's not possible to put all these things into a formula.
At the end of the day you have to "take a view" on certain things.

Personally I don't think future governments will renange on guarantees retrospectively because the deterrent is they won't EVER in the future be able to offer anything similar.

Personally I think that although 20 years in a long time the likelihood is that we won't move and also anyone buying the house would probably look favourably on the regular cheques and electricity savings (of which we'll have records by then) Of course a buyer may not like the curtains or the garden.

I appreciate everyone pointing out the risks but I don't think most of them will happen and I've done what I can to mitigate them (insurance based warranties and not buying from Chinese companies etc.) and looked at worse case scenarios.
The inverter we're buying has a longer design life and is cheaper than those mentioned and from a large company who distribute in 50 countries (SolarEdge).
I'm not saying you can remove risks, but you can try to mitgate them.
Installers do a certain amount of this now themselves in their designs and having insurance backed warranties as they know consumers will demand it.

If you don't trust the policiticians (as I know some of you don't) and have a tendancy towards the perssimistic then this probably isn't for you.

Rollinghome

lisyloo wrote: »

Hi Rollinghome

Could you tell me why?
Is it aesthetic? worries about maintenance? or something else?

Maybe, but my calculations mean they are financially written off over 20 years, so they could be replaced.

Purely aesthetic. When I see those sheets bolted to roofs I perhaps wrongly assume it's the home of someone with no regard for their surroundings and suspect there might be an old mattress in the front garden. Makes me sound like a member of the thought police doesn't it?

I tend to see them most often from the train and find them as lovely as those satellite dishes (and many other "improvements" to houses). Perhaps it's the memory of seeing all those Victorian and Edwardian houses vandalised with aluminium picture windows some years ago. I already see all those plastic windows on modest inter-war houses, often with stick-on lead strips or pretending to be Georgian, in much the same way. I appreciate that the panels can be removed but that might effect the sums.

As you say, you're costing them over 20 years which assumes you won't move before the average stay in a house of 6 years, but if you do, how will 2014 panels be seen by buyers in 10 or 15 years? Will it be seen as "an improvement" they'll be willing to pay for or the reverse?

Because I dislike the appearance so much I'll cling on to any excuse not to consider them, which may not be much help in making your decision. The unknown is whether other people will grow to love them, not notice them, or gradually come to think as I do, as has happened on the ripping out of windows and other features.

bigadaj

lisyloo wrote: »

Also - no-one mentioned the estimated 35 tonnes of Co2 saved.

It's not possible to put all these things into a formula.
At the end of the day you have to "take a view" on certain things.

Personally I don't think future governments will renange on guarantees retrospectively because the deterrent is they won't EVER in the future be able to offer anything similar.

Personally I think that although 20 years in a long time the likelihood is that we won't move and also anyone buying the house would probably look favourably on the regular cheques and electricity savings (of which we'll have records by then) Of course a buyer may not like the curtains or the garden.

I appreciate everyone pointing out the risks but I don't think most of them will happen and I've done what I can to mitigate them (insurance based warranties and not buying from Chinese companies etc.) and looked at worse case scenarios.
The inverter we're buying has a longer design life and is cheaper than those mentioned and from a large company who distribute in 50 countries (SolarEdge).
I'm not saying you can remove risks, but you can try to mitgate them.
Installers do a certain amount of this now themselves in their designs and having insurance backed warranties as they know consumers will demand it.

If you don't trust the policiticians (as I know some of you don't) and have a tendancy towards the perssimistic then this probably isn't for you.

All very fair points though I wouldn't agree with your trust in the politicians.

The only thing I question is your co2 savings, the cost in those terms on manufacture is very large even if this is mitigated over 20 years and compared with teh Chinese continuing to build dozens of coal power stations is a little negligible.

I don't have a problem with these as investments so long as the risks are considered or from an energy security perspective but in the uk their actual efficiency is questionable which is why the subsidy is so large. I also find that conflation tends to work against a rational decision, so would prefer to look at things from either a green or investment perspective rather than both, as the relative detrimental effects for each perspective can be blurred.

lisyloo

Purely aesthetic.

Our most visible roof won't have any panels on it.
That's because it has two big dormer windows and a velux window and there just isn't the space.
The panels going up won't be very visble at all.
I've gone out to look at them several times with surveyors and had to stand almost on a wall or walk a long way down the drive to see them - not normal vantage points.
Our house is a large 5 bed on an estate inhabited by executives with their BMW's and Lexus's and with well tended gardens. It doesn't have shopping trolleys, mattresses or cars up on blocks :-)

Will it be seen as "an improvement" they'll be willing to pay for or the reverse?

I would honestly expect most people to be positive towards receiving quarterly cheques and savings on their electricity especially as I think prices will probably rise.
By then I'd expect to have real figure and not speculation so be able to say - you'll get £X quarterly and £Y per month off the leccy bill.

No I can't guarantee that any particualar buyer will want to pay more/less or demand they are taken off. There really isn't any way to know this stuff.
On balance we both think it will help sell our house.
I appreciate it's a risk, but you also need to take into account the type of people we would be selling an executive 5 bed home to. Middle class, middle-aged with a social conscience?

We still have no forseeable reason to move in 20 years although I know it's a long time.
You just can't quantify these things and sometimes have to take a view on whether you think it's likely.

Because I dislike the appearance so much I'll cling on to any excuse not to consider them

Actually I was then same when I didn't have the spare money available.

which may not be much help in making your decision

It's very necessary to quantify the risks, so it's helpful.
But some of these things don't go neatly into a formula.
Personally I think we will probably be in the same house in 20 years time (it's our dream home and there are no forseeable reasons to move).
I think most of the comapnies we've chosen will be in business and so will any insurance backed warranties.
Most of the technology with long warranties and long design life will probably not fall apart - although I don't rule out the odd issue/replacement on the parts with a shorter working life.
Most of it isn't going to fall off in a storm any more than roof tiles would.

The unknown is whether other people will grow to love them

I think energy prices will rise and people will be more conscious of that.
It's not possible to say especially with an individual buyer, but ultimately it is reversible.
If I invested in something else there will be risks too (unless it's cash).

The trick is to have the correct balance, and with a large amount in property equity, a large amount in pension funds (equities), a small amount in cash and a small amount in S&S, I'm thinking of this relative tiny amount on Solar as a useful diversification.

lisyloo

I wouldn't agree with your trust in the politicians

It's not just trust in politicians though.
I'm sure you are aware that the governement has been challenged about illegal changes in the recent past and lost.

I agree there is a risk here and we have a different view on the likelihood of it happening.
If it's a risk people don't like then they should probably not go with this investment the same as someone with an aversion to capital loss should probably avoid equities.

This risk also needs to be taken in context of an entire portfolio.
This is < 1% of our investment portfolio and yes it's at the risky end, but it's a diversification that we want.
Don't forget this is tax free.
If it was 10% of our assets or we were taking out a loan or needed the money accesible for an emergency fund then I'd take an entirely different view.

So just because there is risk, which some might describe as high that doesn't make it a bad investment per se.
It just means it's unsuitable for some people.

Rollinghome

lisyloo wrote: »

Our house is a large 5 bed on an estate inhabited by executives with their BMW's and Lexus's and with well tended gardens. It doesn't have shopping trolleys, mattresses or cars up on blocks :-)

Goes to show it's all in the eye of the beholder. I've got a small collection of vintage cars and it has been known for one or two to be on blocks for a while (though always too far away from the lane to be seen). Who wouldn't love them?

I even confess to ordering a BMW estate a few years ago but cancelled when my wife pointed out that we wouldn't get our dogs into it and people would mistake me for a salesman. We took the dogs to the showroom to climb all over their demo model but she was annoyingly right (as wives usually are).

Hope the installation goes smoothly for you.

lisyloo

Who wouldn't love them?

So your stuff is an exception then :-)

Hope the installation goes smoothly for you.

Thanks.
I do agree with you that if you are against it for any reason (as I was in the past) then you tend to look on all the downside of the risks whereas if you are pro you have a tendancy to minimise them probably to justify to yourself that you are making the right decision.
Something we all ought to be aware of.

SD-253

Rollinghome wrote: »

Purely aesthetic. When I see those sheets bolted to roofs I perhaps wrongly assume it's the home of someone with no regard for their surroundings and suspect there might be an old mattress in the front garden. Makes me sound like a member of the thought police doesn't it?

I tend to see them most often from the train and find them as lovely as those satellite dishes (and many other "improvements" to houses). Perhaps it's the memory of seeing all those Victorian and Edwardian houses vandalised with aluminium picture windows some years ago. I already see all those plastic windows on modest inter-war houses, often with stick-on lead strips or pretending to be Georgian, in much the same way. I appreciate that the panels can be removed but that might effect the sums.

As you say, you're costing them over 20 years which assumes you won't move before the average stay in a house of 6 years, but if you do, how will 2014 panels be seen by buyers in 10 or 15 years? Will it be seen as "an improvement" they'll be willing to pay for or the reverse?

Because I dislike the appearance so much I'll cling on to any excuse not to consider them, which may not be much help in making your decision. The unknown is whether other people will grow to love them, not notice them, or gradually come to think as I do, as has happened on the ripping out of windows and other features.

Wow one hell of a snobbish view. You would think she/he was talking about putting them on a thatched roof! As if the majority of roofs were aesthetically pleasing in the first place. There not there just roofs. A tiny minority of people will not buy your house because of aesthetic snobbery the vast majority will look to pay more because your house will reduce there cost.
I believe the thread was about risks and costs etc and that's all you need to think about.
" which may not be much help in making your decision. " Correct of no use whatever.


PS I wouldn't have them because I don't think the environmental arguments stack up. The failure to EVER take into account the investment costs to the environment of making and fitting them means you can never know if your actually damaging the environment more than your benefiting it.

Lokolo

SD-253 wrote: »

Wow one hell of a snobbish view. You would think she/he was talking about putting them on a thatched roof! As if the majority of roofs were aesthetically pleasing in the first place. There not there just roofs. A tiny minority of people will not buy your house because of aesthetic snobbery the vast majority will look to pay more because your house will reduce there cost.
I believe the thread was about risks and costs etc and that's all you need to think about.
" which may not be much help in making your decision. " Correct of no use whatever.
PS I wouldn't have them because I don't think the environmental arguments stack up. The failure to EVER take into account the investment costs to the environment of making and fitting them means you can never know if your actually damaging the environment more than your benefiting it.

Although I completely disagree with Rollinghomes view of they look terrible (I think they look lovely and modern!), different people have different views; houses, cars, clothes.

Some people love the old minis, I think they look terrible and I would never buy one. Just like Rollinghome would never buy a house with panels. This is something that should be considered as a risk in the future should lisy want to sell.

Good Luck Lisy, hope it goes all OK!