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Debate House Prices


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Osbourne: Rising House Prices for next 10 Years

135

Comments

  • grizzly1911
    grizzly1911 Posts: 9,965 Forumite
    cells wrote: »
    c

    Almost any sane person would agree concentrating 400k homes per year into the hands of the wealthy in society isnt a grand thing for the nation. This needs to reverse and imo it will if build rates jump to 350-500k a year. If they stay at below 200k (currently around 130k) then the trend will continue

    How many are going to the wealthy and how many are simply going to the substantially leveraged?

    How many are being substantially financed in part by the taxpayer through some form of benefit assistance?
    "If you act like an illiterate man, your learning will never stop... Being uneducated, you have no fear of the future.".....

    "big business is parasitic, like a mosquito, whereas I prefer the lighter touch, like that of a butterfly. "A butterfly can suck honey from the flower without damaging it," "Arunachalam Muruganantham
  • chucknorris
    chucknorris Posts: 10,795 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Name Dropper
    cells wrote: »
    you can have sufficent supply and no downturn

    Yes in theory you could, but my money is on the boom and bust cycle continuing.
    Chuck Norris can kill two stones with one birdThe only time Chuck Norris was wrong was when he thought he had made a mistakeChuck Norris puts the "laughter" in "manslaughter".I've started running again, after several injuries had forced me to stop
  • cells
    cells Posts: 5,246 Forumite
    Yes in theory you could, but my money is on the boom and bust cycle continuing.

    what has that to do with anything?

    The uk can continue to build 130k homes a year and see prices rocket

    or it can build 400-500k homes a year and see prices increase closer to inflation

    The boom and bust cycle haunt anything to do with that
  • chucknorris
    chucknorris Posts: 10,795 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Name Dropper
    cells wrote: »
    what has that to do with anything?

    The uk can continue to build 130k homes a year and see prices rocket

    or it can build 400-500k homes a year and see prices increase closer to inflation

    The boom and bust cycle haunt anything to do with that


    Read your own post and you will see what it has got to do with it. My opinion is that the UK will continue to build the lower range of your numbers and house prices will continue to boom until they bust.
    Chuck Norris can kill two stones with one birdThe only time Chuck Norris was wrong was when he thought he had made a mistakeChuck Norris puts the "laughter" in "manslaughter".I've started running again, after several injuries had forced me to stop
  • cells
    cells Posts: 5,246 Forumite
    Read your own post and you will see what it has got to do with it. My opinion is that the UK will continue to build the lower range of your numbers and house prices will continue to boom until they bust.


    you cannot have a 'bust' and a shortage

    what may happen is another cycle of 15 years of big HPI and then a correction of 10% or so which was effectively what happened 1993-2010

    At the end of it, prices will be more expensive in real terms than they are today.
  • chucknorris
    chucknorris Posts: 10,795 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Name Dropper
    cells wrote: »
    you cannot have a 'bust' and a shortage

    what may happen is another cycle of 15 years of big HPI and then a correction of 10% or so which was effectively what happened 1993-2010

    At the end of it, prices will be more expensive in real terms than they are today.


    Yes you can have a bust and a shortage, we just had one in 2008 and also in 1988, if you read my earlier thread you would have noticed that I was referring to cycles. I'm not saying the bust will be fatal, merely part of a cycle. I knew when I first invested that I would probably be holding property through another downturn rather than selling up. But I am unlikely to hold until the next bust, but that isn't guaranteed.
    Chuck Norris can kill two stones with one birdThe only time Chuck Norris was wrong was when he thought he had made a mistakeChuck Norris puts the "laughter" in "manslaughter".I've started running again, after several injuries had forced me to stop
  • Frugalsod
    Frugalsod Posts: 2,966 Forumite
    Tenth Anniversary Combo Breaker
    edited 8 February 2014 at 12:01PM
    60-65% I guess, it's been like that for 25 or so years after raising steadily for a hundred years. I fear that 25 year steady phase is going to be reversed.

    In the US it already is reversing and the levels of home ownership are dropping. It is even accelerating. People are no longer able to buy and a large percentage of the US population are now financially rated as sub prime, and it is increasing. That will happen here.
    It's really easy to default to cynicism these days, since you are almost always certain to be right.
  • CLAPTON
    CLAPTON Posts: 41,865 Forumite
    10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    Frugalsod wrote: »
    In the US it already is reversing and the levels of home ownership are dropping. It is even accelerating. People are no longer able to buy and a large percentage of the US population are now financially rated as sub prime, and it is increasing. That will happen here.

    what are the figures for home ownership in the US?

    what percentage of the US is financially rated as sub-prime?

    why will it happen here?
  • Frugalsod
    Frugalsod Posts: 2,966 Forumite
    Tenth Anniversary Combo Breaker
    CLAPTON wrote: »
    what are the figures for home ownership in the US?

    what percentage of the US is financially rated as sub-prime?

    why will it happen here?
    US Home ownership

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-11-05/us-rents-rise-new-all-time-high-homeownership-rate-stuck-18-year-low

    US Subprime borrowing now 45% of all loans.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-12-30/what-bubble-chart-day-half-loans-issued-2013-were-covenant-lite

    We will have the same result eventually. We have more people only a pay cheque from disaster. There is nothing being done that will arrest the trends. All current policy is to bail out the banks and boost house prices.
    It's really easy to default to cynicism these days, since you are almost always certain to be right.
  • CLAPTON
    CLAPTON Posts: 41,865 Forumite
    10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    Frugalsod wrote: »
    US Home ownership

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-11-05/us-rents-rise-new-all-time-high-homeownership-rate-stuck-18-year-low

    US Subprime borrowing now 45% of all loans.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-12-30/what-bubble-chart-day-half-loans-issued-2013-were-covenant-lite

    We will have the same result eventually. We have more people only a pay cheque from disaster. There is nothing being done that will arrest the trends. All current policy is to bail out the banks and boost house prices.



    so USA owner occupiers has fallen from 69% to 65%

    I don't understand your other link as I though that cov-lite referred to lending to commercial rather than people.
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