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Debate House Prices
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Osbourne: Rising House Prices for next 10 Years
Comments
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c
Almost any sane person would agree concentrating 400k homes per year into the hands of the wealthy in society isnt a grand thing for the nation. This needs to reverse and imo it will if build rates jump to 350-500k a year. If they stay at below 200k (currently around 130k) then the trend will continue
How many are going to the wealthy and how many are simply going to the substantially leveraged?
How many are being substantially financed in part by the taxpayer through some form of benefit assistance?"If you act like an illiterate man, your learning will never stop... Being uneducated, you have no fear of the future.".....
"big business is parasitic, like a mosquito, whereas I prefer the lighter touch, like that of a butterfly. "A butterfly can suck honey from the flower without damaging it," "Arunachalam Muruganantham0 -
you can have sufficent supply and no downturn
Yes in theory you could, but my money is on the boom and bust cycle continuing.Chuck Norris can kill two stones with one birdThe only time Chuck Norris was wrong was when he thought he had made a mistakeChuck Norris puts the "laughter" in "manslaughter".I've started running again, after several injuries had forced me to stop0 -
chucknorris wrote: »Yes in theory you could, but my money is on the boom and bust cycle continuing.
what has that to do with anything?
The uk can continue to build 130k homes a year and see prices rocket
or it can build 400-500k homes a year and see prices increase closer to inflation
The boom and bust cycle haunt anything to do with that0 -
what has that to do with anything?
The uk can continue to build 130k homes a year and see prices rocket
or it can build 400-500k homes a year and see prices increase closer to inflation
The boom and bust cycle haunt anything to do with that
Read your own post and you will see what it has got to do with it. My opinion is that the UK will continue to build the lower range of your numbers and house prices will continue to boom until they bust.Chuck Norris can kill two stones with one birdThe only time Chuck Norris was wrong was when he thought he had made a mistakeChuck Norris puts the "laughter" in "manslaughter".I've started running again, after several injuries had forced me to stop0 -
chucknorris wrote: »Read your own post and you will see what it has got to do with it. My opinion is that the UK will continue to build the lower range of your numbers and house prices will continue to boom until they bust.
you cannot have a 'bust' and a shortage
what may happen is another cycle of 15 years of big HPI and then a correction of 10% or so which was effectively what happened 1993-2010
At the end of it, prices will be more expensive in real terms than they are today.0 -
you cannot have a 'bust' and a shortage
what may happen is another cycle of 15 years of big HPI and then a correction of 10% or so which was effectively what happened 1993-2010
At the end of it, prices will be more expensive in real terms than they are today.
Yes you can have a bust and a shortage, we just had one in 2008 and also in 1988, if you read my earlier thread you would have noticed that I was referring to cycles. I'm not saying the bust will be fatal, merely part of a cycle. I knew when I first invested that I would probably be holding property through another downturn rather than selling up. But I am unlikely to hold until the next bust, but that isn't guaranteed.Chuck Norris can kill two stones with one birdThe only time Chuck Norris was wrong was when he thought he had made a mistakeChuck Norris puts the "laughter" in "manslaughter".I've started running again, after several injuries had forced me to stop0 -
Typhoon2000 wrote: »60-65% I guess, it's been like that for 25 or so years after raising steadily for a hundred years. I fear that 25 year steady phase is going to be reversed.
In the US it already is reversing and the levels of home ownership are dropping. It is even accelerating. People are no longer able to buy and a large percentage of the US population are now financially rated as sub prime, and it is increasing. That will happen here.It's really easy to default to cynicism these days, since you are almost always certain to be right.0 -
In the US it already is reversing and the levels of home ownership are dropping. It is even accelerating. People are no longer able to buy and a large percentage of the US population are now financially rated as sub prime, and it is increasing. That will happen here.
what are the figures for home ownership in the US?
what percentage of the US is financially rated as sub-prime?
why will it happen here?0 -
US Home ownershipwhat are the figures for home ownership in the US?
what percentage of the US is financially rated as sub-prime?
why will it happen here?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-11-05/us-rents-rise-new-all-time-high-homeownership-rate-stuck-18-year-low
US Subprime borrowing now 45% of all loans.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-12-30/what-bubble-chart-day-half-loans-issued-2013-were-covenant-lite
We will have the same result eventually. We have more people only a pay cheque from disaster. There is nothing being done that will arrest the trends. All current policy is to bail out the banks and boost house prices.It's really easy to default to cynicism these days, since you are almost always certain to be right.0 -
US Home ownership
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-11-05/us-rents-rise-new-all-time-high-homeownership-rate-stuck-18-year-low
US Subprime borrowing now 45% of all loans.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-12-30/what-bubble-chart-day-half-loans-issued-2013-were-covenant-lite
We will have the same result eventually. We have more people only a pay cheque from disaster. There is nothing being done that will arrest the trends. All current policy is to bail out the banks and boost house prices.
so USA owner occupiers has fallen from 69% to 65%
I don't understand your other link as I though that cov-lite referred to lending to commercial rather than people.0
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