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Debate House Prices


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Osbourne: Rising House Prices for next 10 Years

245

Comments

  • CLAPTON
    CLAPTON Posts: 41,865 Forumite
    10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    Typhoon2000 wrote: »
    I think the BTLers would have paid off their mortgages in 10yr time.
    Any way a third of all homes are being bought without mortgages. We have to accept that that not everyone who aspires to own their own homes is going to be able to in the future, and comparing with the good old days is not realistic. Plenty of more people are going to be renting, so plenty more BTL sales are going to have to happen.



    what good old days were they?


    was that when 100% of the households were owner occupiers?
  • Typhoon2000
    Typhoon2000 Posts: 1,175 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 1,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    CLAPTON wrote: »
    what good old days were they?


    was that when 100% of the households were owner occupiers?

    No that was when 60-65% were owner occupied.
  • movilogo
    movilogo Posts: 3,235 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 1,000 Posts Name Dropper Photogenic
    Tory votes might be shrinking for this in next 10 years :)
    Happiness is buying an item and then not checking its price after a month to discover it was reduced further.
  • chucknorris
    chucknorris Posts: 10,795 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Name Dropper
    movilogo wrote: »
    Tory votes might be shrinking for this in next 10 years :)



    Do you think that crashing prices, lost jobs and everything else that comes with a downturn is a vote winner?
    Chuck Norris can kill two stones with one birdThe only time Chuck Norris was wrong was when he thought he had made a mistakeChuck Norris puts the "laughter" in "manslaughter".I've started running again, after several injuries had forced me to stop
  • CLAPTON
    CLAPTON Posts: 41,865 Forumite
    10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    Typhoon2000 wrote: »
    No that was when 60-65% were owner occupied.



    what's the current rate?
  • Typhoon2000
    Typhoon2000 Posts: 1,175 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 1,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    60-65% I guess, it's been like that for 25 or so years after raising steadily for a hundred years. I fear that 25 year steady phase is going to be reversed.
  • cells
    cells Posts: 5,246 Forumite
    CLAPTON wrote: »
    what good old days were they?


    was that when 100% of the households were owner occupiers?


    About 10-12 years ago, excluding council homes which are subsidised so people are v.happy to live in them like OOs about 87% of the non council housing stock was OO

    You need a small amount of PR to cater for the transients, ie students, people working away from home for a period, etc.

    So yes, virtually all homes were OO in the sense that anyone who wanted was an owner (or happy to rent from the council at much reduced rates)
  • cells
    cells Posts: 5,246 Forumite
    chucknorris wrote: »
    Do you think that crashing prices, lost jobs and everything else that comes with a downturn is a vote winner?


    you can have sufficent supply and no downturn

    France builds 400k homes a year but there is no HPC there. Building a sufficent number in the UK, probably also around 400k a year, would just slow HPI towards inflation rather than we may get in the near future of crazy doubling per 5-10 years
  • cells
    cells Posts: 5,246 Forumite
    CLAPTON wrote: »
    what's the current rate?

    close to 63%

    The 'scary' part is that 300k-400k NET homes are going into the PR sector. That is to say BTL is growing by about 1,000 a day.

    Before around 2005 the NET growth was close closer to zero. There was BTL but it was largely offset by other BTL-ers selling. That all charged around 2005-2006 and since then BTLers have been expanding the PR sector very rapidly.

    Almost any sane person would agree concentrating 400k homes per year into the hands of the wealthy in society isnt a grand thing for the nation. This needs to reverse and imo it will if build rates jump to 350-500k a year. If they stay at below 200k (currently around 130k) then the trend will continue
  • Thrugelmir
    Thrugelmir Posts: 89,546 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Name Dropper Photogenic
    cells wrote: »
    Almost any sane person would agree concentrating 400k homes per year into the hands of the wealthy in society isnt a grand thing for the nation.

    Better than the lax lending at the beginning of this decade. Which the taxpayer is still footing the bill for.
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