Interest rates.

bigadaj

blinko wrote: »

WHat about the yield on government bonds, has that moved recently?

I think that is supposed to be an indication of rate movements in the future

That would have been the case on normal times but with qe funny money flying around and primarily going into gilts or treasuries then that connection doesn't necessarily follow at the moment.

lvader

brendon wrote: »

Do you have a source for this? I find it difficult to believe it's true -- are you sure your not thinking of the deficit?

Here you go.

UK government borrowing fell in December to £12.1bn, down £2.1bn from a year earlier, according to official figures.

The estimated figure excludes the effect of bank bailouts, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said.

Public borrowing for the 2013-14 financial year to date fell to £96.1bn in December - £4.8bn lower than the same period a year ago.

Public sector net debt fell from 76.6% to 75.7% of gross domestic product.

The figures are initial estimates from the ONS and subject to later revision.

The ONS also reported that the unemployment rate had fallen to 7.1% in December, its lowest level since 2009.

Increased economic activity and lower unemployment have helped reduce government borrowing and increased the money flowing into the Treasury's coffers.

Central government receipts were £45.8bn in December, up £1.3bn on the previous year, including a £400m increase in stamp duty reflecting the recent pick-up in the property market.

Glen_Clark

lvader wrote: »

reflecting the recent pick-up in the property market

so its based on printing money to fund rising house prices and getting some of it back in stamp duty - pre election, smoke and mirrors, illusory growth.
It isn't real growth at all.
Totally unproductive.
High housing costs makes it more difficult to compete with other countries who have lower housing costs.
The only people to benefit are Buy to Let merchants - who might otherwise have been doing something productive like manufacturing.

lvader

Some of the growth comes from the property market, but that wouldn't explain the broad based 18 year high in manufacturing.

Better than Labours plan which was to just borrow and spend more.

ColdIron

lvader wrote: »

Better than Labours plan which was to just borrow and spend more.

Or tax, borrow and spend more. You can't tax a nation into prosperity

talexuser

Figures are out. Most of the recovery is driven by the household consumption and the housing market. Services are up 1.3% since 2008 and manufacturing is 12% down, services accounting for around 85% of present growth. No sign of any re-balancing of the economy yet, just a good old fashioned pre-election mini housing boom.

lvader

talexuser wrote: »

Figures are out. Most of the recovery is driven by the household consumption and the housing market. Services are up 1.3% since 2008 and manufacturing is 12% down, services accounting for around 85% of present growth. No sign of any re-balancing of the economy yet, just a good old fashioned pre-election mini housing boom.

You didn't read this then

The UK's service sector - which makes up more than three-quarters of economic output - rose by 0.8% in the fourth quarter, the ONS said, matching its performance in the previous quarter. And the manufacturing sector grew 0.9%.

So manufacturing is outpacing service.

Glen_Clark

lvader wrote: »

You didn't read this then



So manufacturing is outpacing service.

You don't appear to have read talexuser's post before commenting on it since he quotes figures since 2008.
Wheras you quote the last quarter which is flattered by the Osborne formula
(Real Rate of Inflation) - (Official Rate of Inflation) = Growth.

lvader

Glen_Clark wrote: »

You don't appear to have read talexuser's post before commenting on it since he quotes figures since 2008.
Wheras you quote the last quarter which is flattered by the Osborne formula
(Real Rate of Inflation) - (Official Rate of Inflation) = Growth.

I did read it, but since we are talking about recent/current growth I fail to see the relevance.

Glen_Clark

lvader wrote: »

I did read it, but since we are talking about recent/current growth I fail to see the relevance.

The point is that the recent pre election stimulus is created by throwing taxpayers borrowed money at interest free loans on sub prime mortgages. Government gets more tax from stamp duty, all this borrowed/printed cash is sloshing around Estate Agents, DIY stores, tradesmen etc etc.
Paying it all back is a matter for after the election.:(