Interest rates.

lvader

talexuser wrote: »

But what growth? there is no evidence of manufacturing revival to speak of, no

You mean if we had something like car production at a six year high?

ColdIron

talexuser wrote: »

trying to get to grips with the deficit, but no dent in the debt, in fact the opposite.

One is a necessary consequence of the other. Although the debt is forecast to be an eye-watering £1.5 Trillion by next year, the deficit is falling year on year

lvader

Debt to GDP also fell recently.

talexuser

lvader wrote: »

You mean if we had something like car production at a six year high?

But surely that is but a tiny fraction of national output (and all owned by foreign companies with most profits going abroad)?

lvader

how about this?

Export orders push UK manufacturing to 18-year high
Broad-based increase helps total orders grow to their highest level since February 1995, Confederation of British Industry says.

talexuser

Better example, agreed, but the balance of trade figures remain many billions negative. No sign of any re-balancing away from consumer spending (debt) and services yet.

lvader

talexuser wrote: »

Better example, agreed, but the balance of trade figures remain many billions negative. No sign of any re-balancing away from consumer spending (debt) and services yet.

That isn't a recent problem, it was an issue even is the so called boom years. We do have an ecommerce surplus.

blinko

WHat about the yield on government bonds, has that moved recently?

I think that is supposed to be an indication of rate movements in the future

brendon

lvader wrote: »

Debt to GDP also fell recently.

Do you have a source for this? I find it difficult to believe it's true -- are you sure your not thinking of the deficit?

Glen_Clark

Wilkins wrote: »

Ha, ha, A nice line and one I shall try to remember, but not really true because:

- there is no "real" rate of inflation in the sense of being universally valid. Everyone has their own rate and, as the ONS points out, inflation does not necessarily reflect the "cost of living", whatever that means.

- growth (GDP increase) is another statistical construct that means only what it actually measures, i.e. the end result of a piece of arithmetic performed on diverse data. It's relation to the "real" economy is somewhat elastic.

It's largely the media and politicians, not economists, who overinterpret these measures.

There are many instances where rising property prices, for example, are booked as profit. Yet house price inflation is excluded from the figures they use to determine 'Growth' As are the liabilities being foisted on to the taxpayer to underwrite interest free loans on sub prime mortgages.
Building more houses would be real growth. But that would bring house prices down.