Does Gordon know something we dont?

manhattan

In the news today i briefly saw that Gordon Brown may have an early election and could possibly start the ball rolling next month but more likely next year instead of in 2009.

Do you think Gordon knows that the country is heading for some sort of recession or HPC? And is he staging an early election to win votes from the "haves" in our great economy and stay in power before the sh*t hits the fan?

Guy_Montag

I would have been planning for one in three weeks time if I had been him, it could always be delayed, but it would have caught the tories on the hop.

lynzpower

I agree, its a political move more than anything.

he needs to underline him becoming PM and theres no other real way of doing this without startign the election wheels a whirring

Curious_Moose

It's like one of the competitors holding the starting gun in a 100 metre sprint.

tr3mor

Al_Mac wrote: »

Elections are ofter a year earlier than they have to be. Gives the slimeballs the chance to pick a good time for them.

It's 2 years before they have to be.

Recent history suggests an election will be held every 4 years, when in fact the allowable term is 5 years.

Gordon will call an election whenever he thinks he can win one.

Fulham_Mark

Another question is "does Alan Milburn know something we don't?"

Decided to pull out of the leadership race when he was a popular candidate with enough charisma to worry Dave...

Wouldn't be waiting for it all to go wrong for Gord, then take over as labour leader when he loses the next election would he?

Sat behind Gord on a plane once, very scruffy with a pale beer belly and left a snotty hankerchief in the seat when he left.

Gorgeous_George

I'm sure Gordon Brown knows lots of things we don't.

My guess is that the next election will be in May 09 despite the current speculation. IRs will be back down to 4.75% with massive (affordable) house-building programmes announced. The feel good factor will sweep the Labour Party to another huge victory.



GG

wecanhelpu

Voters tend to have long memories.

And as they say, the opposition doesn't win elections - governments lose them.

John Major lost the 1997 election largely because of his ERM balls-up in 1992 which led, amongst other things, to 15% interest rates.

The present governments balls-ups are so recent you I don't need to remind you of those.

Ad

All of that imaginary house price wealth is about to disappear.

BTman

He will call an election just before house prices crash...

Generali

According to The Times the election will be next year.

In his first speech as party leader, he promised to heed and lead the call for change. He also used his coronation speech to announce the appointment of an election co-ordinator in a clear signal that he would like to go to the country next year.

My feeling is that he's looking at what's happening to the housing markets in the US, Ireland and Spain (as well as the massive asset bubbles elsewhere that have to unwind at some point, e.g. Chinese share prices) and reckons that any hint of HPI flattening or declining leaves him unelectable.

Lest we forget, MEW = 6% of disposable income right now. MEW is harder or impossible if HPI is negative. If the voters lose 6% of disposable income they'll feel a lot poorer and so a lot less likely to vote for the incumbents.