So How's the Job Market Doing?

Generali

IIRC, the job market was going to be down on its uppers by now. Mass redundancies in the Public sector were going to mean huge rises in unemployment.

So how's it actually going?

http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/7ce25f143275460bb472cde7d52d0371

Key points:Permanent and temporary appointments rise at strong, albeit slower rates

Overall vacancies increase at fastest pace since July 1998


Permanent salary growth at six-year high amid declining candidate availability

Hmm. It seems a little less Socialism might be helping.

michaels

Generali wrote: »

IIRC, the job market was going to be down on its uppers by now. Mass redundancies in the Public sector were going to mean huge rises in unemployment.

So how's it actually going?

http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/7ce25f143275460bb472cde7d52d0371



Hmm. It seems a little less Socialism might be helping.

Is it the overall job market that you are interested or specifically that for returning ex-pat bankers?!

I still wonder if we are seeing a tale of two Britains, the SE where there was not such a dependence on public sector employment and so the scaling back of the state has not had much of a negative multiplier effect as one extreme; and some of the highly state dependent regions at the other end of the spectrum where the fall in govt remmitances has hurt not only public sector employment but knocked on to the private sector via falling demand?

Generali

michaels wrote: »

Is it the overall job market that you are interested or specifically that for returning ex-pat bankers?!

If the AUD keeps heading south then there's a chance I'll do a year or something. Leave the family in Aus and earn a crust elsewhere. Luxembourg appeals actually.

michaels wrote: »

I still wonder if we are seeing a tale of two Britains, the SE where there was not such a dependence on public sector employment and so the scaling back of the state has not had much of a negative multiplier effect as one extreme; and some of the highly state dependent regions at the other end of the spectrum where the fall in govt remmitances has hurt not only public sector employment but knocked on to the private sector via falling demand?

The multiplier effect, IIRC, works from the quantum of the Government overspend rather than the change in value. If the Government deficit falls from £5 to £1 then the existing multiplier effect is in place, the future additional growth merely drops.

I would question whether it's sustainable for one part of the country to depend for generations on taxation from another part to support it. AIUI, London has been pumping billions out in taxes every year for the last 40 years to pay for much of the rest of the country (the SE pays out some cash net and the SW roughly pays its way).

michaels

Generali wrote: »

I would question whether it's sustainable for one part of the country to depend for generations on taxation from another part to support it. AIUI, London has been pumping billions out in taxes every year for the last 40 years to pay for much of the rest of the country (the SE pays out some cash net and the SW roughly pays its way).

Swerving way off topic but I think this is very relevant when the Scots claim that they should not shoulder their share of the National Debt after any split because of the 'extra revenues' they have paid in from North Sea oil - within a country it is unusual to 'keep track' of which regions have benefited/lost out....I must admit that I am concerned that if there is a referendum yes then the non-Scottish part will do a very bad deal when it comes to independence finances.

Loughton_Monkey

Generali wrote: »

If the AUD keeps heading south then there's a chance I'll do a year or something. Leave the family in Aus and earn a crust elsewhere. Luxembourg appeals actually.

Living in Australia, surely the most lucrative place to look is an ex-pat contract in Shanghai, Bankok, Seoul, Hong Kong, Kuala Lumpar......?

kabayiri

Contract market seems fairly buoyant, even up here in the 'distressed regions'.

I know quite a few IT freelancers who broadened their horizons after the crash, mostly into Europe. In general I think UK people are quite resilient and flexible nowadays.

Graham_Devon

Generali wrote: »

IIRC, the job market was going to be down on its uppers by now. Mass redundancies in the Public sector were going to mean huge rises in unemployment.

So how's it actually going?

http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/7ce25f143275460bb472cde7d52d0371



Hmm. It seems a little less Socialism might be helping.

To be fair, this data, especially the headlines can be puled apart by all and sundry, whatever their interest.

It's well known that part time jobs are making the headline jobs rate look good.

As for salary growth being the highest for 6 years, this is again, a headline and nothing more. Afterall, it's hardly difficult to see bigger growth than we have had for the last 6 years. Salary groth could be anaemic and it wouldn't be difficult to find it's still better than the last 6 years.

What it needs is a little more comparison to previous figures. Politically these figures are laughable now. Both parties are right to back up their position, and that;s the problem. While the tories are right to suggest unemployment is decreasing, labour are right to suggest people have less work (in terms of hours) and less pay.

Zero hour contracts make the headline figures even more of a mockery.

I personally know of an ex public sector employee (full time) who is now working in a creamery attaching lids to pots for 11 hours a week. So on paper, she's got a job. Thats grand. In terms of where she is, she's 10x worse off.

Road_Hog

The reality of those jobs.


http://hat4uk.wordpress.com/2013/12/10/exclusive-how-jobcentre-plus-statistics-are-being-inflated-to-support-osbornes-economic-growth-fiction/

wotsthat

Graham_Devon wrote: »

I personally know of an ex public sector employee (full time) who is now working in a creamery attaching lids to pots for 11 hours a week. So on paper, she's got a job. Thats grand. In terms of where she is, she's 10x worse off.

Hard cheddar or sour cream?

My son's peer group left school at 16 and struggled to find work. It's taken them awhile but they are all now employed - they're all delighted the economy and jobs market is recovering.

Yes they'd like more hours and pay but even these teenagers are capable of counting their blessings and realise things could be much worse. They're all going to better off than those who didn't bother because it wasn't worth it.

It's not for ever - things are picking up.

Graham_Devon

wotsthat wrote: »

Hard cheddar or sour cream?

Just reality. Apologies.

Thrugelmir

Generali wrote: »

I would question whether it's sustainable for one part of the country to depend for generations on taxation from another part to support it. AIUI, London has been pumping billions out in taxes every year for the last 40 years to pay for much of the rest of the country (the SE pays out some cash net and the SW roughly pays its way).

Boosted by the move by the BBC. Manchester is undoubtedly gaining momentum in the fields of digital media and digital technology. Early days but in the same way as London has built an all round financial services sector with supporting industries. The growth in digital services is attracting people into the sector.

Financial services is never going to return to it's heyday years. Still important, over time one suspects increasingly less so though.

A fair few of the old Public Sector brigade are being retired off on their gold plated pensions. While others are being privatised. Steria has been as the preferred bidder for running a number of Shared Service facilities within the BIS family. The most significant being the DWP. In 2015 this will result in a significant transfer of headcount from public to private sector. So the headline headcount figures are somewhat deceiving. Plenty of waste in the public sector though, productivity is low compared to the private sector. When you compare holidays, and other time benefits. Having spent decades in the private sector, interesting having a viewpoint being on the inside of a culture being dismantled.

Personally I'm fairly optimistic looking forward. As the situation has stabilised. Certainly enough for business to consider long term investment. ( Well until Ed opens his mouth on a particular facet of industry!).

See the Oz economy is losing it's sheen. Being highly dependent on the Chinese isn't a good thing. My late father lost his job with the then Malaysian rubber plantations in the 60's. Once the Chinese came buying everything up. .