So How's the Job Market Doing?

Rinoa

Generali wrote: »

The facts are pretty simple. Basically every major economic indicator is positive. If you want to think that means that disaster is around the corner then so be it.

I wonder why so many posters on here seem to see doom at every turn. It's almost pathological.

It's also very difficult debating here when so many just won't accept official statistics ~ from the very same sources they were perfectly happy quoting when growth, employment etc weren't looking so healthy.

Generali

Rinoa wrote: »

It's also very difficult debating here when so many just won't accept official statistics ~ from the very same sources they were perfectly happy quoting when growth, employment etc weren't looking so healthy.

It's funny how only the statst that don't support an argument are wrong!

Grizzly's post brings up an interesting question about why unemployment hasn't been higher and the missing productivity. If you look at employment, productivity and output stats for the last few years then they don't seem to add up. Making a leap from there to 'the UK is going to hell in a handcart' is a ridiculous leap. IMHO of course.

grizzly1911

wotsthat wrote: »

Just asking the question? That's what I thought.:)

After all who'd expect 5 unemployed teenagers to walk straight into jobs with mapped out careers and starting on a brilliant wage. I've told them they should have held out for management positions, company cars and FS pensions.

But yes I agree. Life ain't perfect.

Don't think I suggested anything to do with management positions or DB pension schemes.

Graham_Devon

Generali wrote: »

The facts are pretty simple. Basically every major economic indicator is positive. If you want to think that means that disaster is around the corner then so be it.

I wonder why so many posters on here seem to see doom at every turn. It's almost pathological.

I don't believe it's pathological at all.

And they don't see "doom" either. Just simply another side. It appears anything you mention is taken to an extreme level in order to make a point.

I wonder why so many posters have to go to extremes and use insulting language to combat anyone questioning their premise.

I think too many people forget all too easily that we are STILL on emergency support measures. Therefore, things should look good. But you can't really have a true recovery while on emergency support. You have to start reigning in that support, and even the US is petrified of doing so. Why? Simple. The stats show something good, but undoing the support could throw us straight back to where we were (and in some peoples opinions, make things even worse than they were).

antrobus

grizzly1911 wrote: »

....I wonder why the guy from Markit is questioning some of the evidence....

So that people will believe that they need to pay the guy from Markit to get the 'truth' as opposed to getting for free from the ONS.:)

Generali

antrobus wrote: »

So that people will believe that they need to pay the guy from Markit to get the 'truth' as opposed to getting for free from the ONS.:)

Markit are very good at what they do and what they do best, IMO, is produce data that can be compared over time.

Some of that is pricing (my only direct experience of using them is to price derivatives) and some is producing time series like PMIs.

In my experience, people who are very good at what they do are constantly questioning what goes on in their field. I work with a lot of people like that, it's probably the best thing about where I work, the constant probing and questioning of everything.

Loughton_Monkey

Graham_Devon wrote: »

I don't believe it's pathological at all.

And they don't see "doom" either. Just simply another side. It appears anything you mention is taken to an extreme level in order to make a point.

I wonder why so many posters have to go to extremes and use insulting language to combat anyone questioning their premise.

I think too many people forget all too easily that we are STILL on emergency support measures. Therefore, things should look good. But you can't really have a true recovery while on emergency support. You have to start reigning in that support, and even the US is petrified of doing so. Why? Simple. The stats show something good, but undoing the support could throw us straight back to where we were (and in some peoples opinions, make things even worse than they were).

I really don't think you see the difference.

Just imagine your poor great uncle Hamish. He had a terrible car crash. Punctured lungs. Internal bleeding. Broken legs. Broken ribs. The minute he was taken into A&E nobody thought he could survive. Almost certainly won't make it through the night, and if he does, could well be a vegetable for life.....

Now three months or so on, the bleeding was all stopped. Emergency operations repaired some of the internal damage. More are to come. Dr Brown did the immediate resuscitation but little else. Then that Dr Osborne did a wonderful job in the circumstances. Can't operate on everything at once, but he's prioritised it. Bones have been set, but they are still healing....

Now here's the difference between a "normal" person, and a pathological doom-monger.

Normal Human Being:

Phew! Poor old Hamish really was in a mess. But thankfully he didn't die. They've tested for brain damage and can't find any. Brilliant. He's still in the hospital bed but can get up into a chair once or twice a day. Shame, but no way is he going home yet, but his bones have virtually mended. Every time I visit he's a little bit happier. A little bit less pain. All his organs are functioning. He's going to need quite a bit of physio, but that's all being arranged. Pain killers worked well, but he's down to such low doses he'll be off them in a month or two..... Of course his wife has been rushed off her feet. Extremely difficult time. But she's now got a bit more time to relax. At least all the costs of visiting will diminish in a couple of months once he's out.....

Pathological Doom Monger:

Poor old Hamish was in a mess. They keep telling me that he's doing well but how can he when he's still in hospital? Why haven't they sent him home? I just feel there's a relapse coming on. He's going to die in there. Statistically, 40% of people die there, you know. I wouldn't mind betting he's addicted to those pain killers and will never come off them. Addicted for life. He'll be brain dead. And then people don't realise how dangerous physiotherapy is. What's to stop him falling off his Zimmer frame and breaking all the same bones again and puncturing his lung? If he ever leaves hospital, he's still go to go along the same roads. That A14 is very dangerous and his wife doesn't drive very well. Could have another accident. Even when he gets home, he'll need health visitors for another 6 months before he can go to work again. What if the health workers are on strike. His wife will never cope. He could die without the right treatment..... Wouldn't mind betting his wife will die with all that stress. Then who's going to look after him? Probably he'll have to go into a hoime for life. I've read hundreds of articles..they only last 2 years in homes, you know.....

You are not just seeing "another side". You are seeing things that don't exist. Something normal doctors are aware of but are generally on top of. "Another side" might legitimately say "I think hell take 3 months rather than 2 to come out of hospital", or "It's very difficult to tell, but until physio, we might need to think he could have a permanent limp.....". As Gen is trying to tell you, when all the indicators are 'on the up' how can you fail to be pleased with the direction, even though we would all like the speed a tad faster?

Do what I am going to do in 5 minutes. Go downstairs and have a very large Gin & Tonic. Calm down. Relieve your stress. FTSE 74 points up.

wotsthat

Loughton_Monkey wrote: »

You are not just seeing "another side". You are seeing things that don't exist. Something normal doctors are aware of but are generally on top of.

..but there was this bloke and he'd got a blog and everything and he said doctors don't know what they're talking about.

I tend to believe this bloke - after all it's so difficult to set up a blog and so easy to train as a doctor.

TruckerT

Loughton_Monkey wrote: »

The mathematical answer is of course £1.50

A third of a pound is 33.3....p, so if something which costs a pound now, and is a third cheaper than a week ago, then arguably the previous price could be said to be £1.333...p

Conversely, if the current price of £1 goes back up to £1.50, then will this be one third dearer, or 50% dearer?

TruckerT

Loughton_Monkey

wotsthat wrote: »

..but there was this bloke and he'd got a blog and everything and he said doctors don't know what they're talking about.

I tend to believe this bloke - after all it's so difficult to set up a blog and so easy to train as a doctor.

yeah but, no but, yeah but, no but, yeah but, no but.... I said absolutely nothing about whether you can believe this doctor or that doctor and I made no reference to blogs you're just putting words in my mouth because you don't like the argument and I was only saying what could happen and not saying what will happen and just because you choose to interpret what I said as if I had said it in answer to something entirely different that you're dreaming up then how can I have a rational argument when even the government's own ministers are saying they don't trust blogs and doctors and I've had just about enough of this thread when you jump on me without any arguments and call me psychopathic and......

...I need a drink....