So How's the Job Market Doing?

Graham_Devon

Generali wrote: »

There isn't conflicting information out there, the information basically all points in the same direction.

Seriously?

No conflicitng information? You must be working on a technicality here, rather than a serious point.

There is conflicint information all over the place, but I think I'm biting the bait, so I'll wish you and yours a merry christmas and leave it at that.

antrobus

Graham_Devon wrote: »

....I may well have it wrong, but I can't ignore reports of record increases in credit card debt and instead simply assume everyone is suddenly richer.....

What reports of "record increases in credit card debt"?

I think you're confusing recent press reports detailing the fact that total consumer lending reached a record (nominal) high in October, but note that;

(1) There are no "record increases", consumer debt is actually increasing at an annual rate of less than 1% which is hardly a 'record'

(2) The total of unsecured debt (including 'credit card debt' is actually lower than it was in 2011

Anything else you'd like to get wrong?

Generali

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Seriously?

No conflicitng information? You must be working on a technicality here, rather than a serious point.

There is conflicint information all over the place, but I think I'm biting the bait, so I'll wish you and yours a merry christmas and leave it at that.

- Unemployment down
- Employment up
- Wages increasing (albeit still behind inflation)
- Inflation low
- Interest rates low

PMIs are all above 50 too.

Where are the negatives in the major macro economic indicators? I don't see them.

Thank you for the kind wishes, a very Merry Xmas/Happy Holidays to you and yours too.

tomterm8

I agree with antrobus credit growth in general is quite low at the moment, and more than likely it will revert to trend, giving a bit of a boost to the economy.

Rinoa

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Put the handbag away for a second.

Graham_Devon wrote: »

If you are just going to sit there and throw silly insults around, I think it's best I simply let you get on with it.

:rotfl:

..........

wotsthat

Generali wrote: »

I realise that the thought that the British economy could be in any way good is an anathema to many posters but things are really starting to boom.

It's the British disease I'm afraid. For every piece of good news you'll find someone who find another piece of vaguely related bad news which, in their small minds, nullifies the good news. They tend to excuse their pathological pessimism by calling it realism.

The economy has moved forwards dramatically. Unless the numbers are lying it's hard to argue that the economy is doing anything other than recovering. It could go backwards of course but that doesn't seem to be their argument - more a case of denying the current recovery.

I'll chuck in some anecdotal. My son has returned from an overseas military posting for some extended leave and is disgusted that his mates who he was going to hang around with have gone and got jobs - every single one of them.

grizzly1911

wotsthat wrote: »

I'll chuck in some anecdotal. My son has returned from an overseas military posting for some extended leave and is disgusted that his mates who he was going to hang around with have gone and got jobs - every single one of them.

Meaningful full time jobs, at or above the living wage, with full careers and training in in a valuable skill or trade?

grizzly1911

[I]Do incorrect employment growth figures explain low UK productivity?
The puzzle of low output per hour may come from the Office for National Statistics overstating numbers of UK jobs[/I]

http://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2013/oct/22/incorrect-employment-growth-figures-low-productivity

Road_Hog

Generali wrote: »

Really? You reckon that Markit, who make their money and reputation by selling data, understand the employment market less than some geezer with a keyboard. Interesting standpoint.

If employment and wages are increasing according to an independent body (the ONS) and Some Bloke reckons they're decreasing then my money's on the former, especially given that all the other obvious signs of growth (PMIs, house prices, GDP) are also increasing.

Are you saying that companies that do surveys and sell data, are completely accurate and don't tilt it to favour their market?


If I hire a survey company, I can guarantee you I can get the answers I want, they'll just ask the right questions.


As for the ONS being independent, oh please. It's a government run agency, it's about as independent as the BOE.


Now, what I do have, is a MKI eyeball and I live in Britain and talk to people, and view the situation. Unemployment is not dropping. People may be taken off of certain benefits that don't count or put on training schemes, or zero hour contracts or underemployed, but what we don't have is a healthy jobs market that is improving.


The ONS says one thing, empirical evidence says another.

Loughton_Monkey

TruckerT wrote: »

So if something is on sale for £1, and is advertised as being a third cheaper than the previous week, then what would have been it's earlier price?

And how about 'Almost Half Price'?

TruckerT

The mathematical answer is of course £1.50, but since the ASA has been asleep for the last 10 years, most shops would indeed say "Almost Half Price".

They would also say it is "on sale" despite the fact it has not been advertised at £1.50 for the previous 6 months...

Only in China do you get [as I once saw and photographed] Such good offers as this one: