are land registry prices off?

kcseb

Hi

Time and time again, property hunting in London suburbs (zones 2-4) this month, I'm finding a BIG mismatch between what I see properties actually going for, versus the most recent Land registry data.

For example, I saw a property today on at £250k 'guide price'...looks decent value at £250k and will probably get that. HOWEVER...when I look at most recent sold prices nearby, it looks hideously over-priced. An identical house (few doors down) just 4 months ago sold for £205k.

Prior to that, the land registry data shows that in summer 2012, a house 2 doors down from the one today with identical floorplan (I checked!) but stunningly decorated (I mean like £40k worth of improvements) went for £185k!

I know the market is heating up, but seriously...25% in 4 months?

Am I missing something? Are the land registry prices off?

Best

K

kingstreet

The LandReg figures reflect actual sold prices, but they do lag a month or two behind.

Property is worth what someone is prepared to pay for it and if surveyors for mortgage lenders agree, that tends to help drive the market upwards.

If it's where the streets are paved with gold, you have all kinds of different "high demand, low supply" issues, so anything is possible.

kcseb

Ta. It still seems to be an odd phenomenon...there's something fishy.

Even if we allow for time lag, and we're talking +25% in 6 months not 4, that's still not plausible!

Maybe a lot of the better deals aren't coming to the open market but course they're still reflected in Land Registry data, hence this discrepancy?

ging84

the dates and prices they show are correct

it takes a couple of months for registrations to happen, you are allowed 2 months after the transaction date, and then they show on the figures the next month, so it can take nearly 3 months for some to show, but there is often 2-3 months between offer accepted and sale completed some times much longer if there is a chain or complication. So the transaction you see completed 4 months ago would have had the offer accept at least 5-6 months ago, maybe much longer though.

Mobeer

You are comparing asking price now vs. actual sale price some months ago. It shouldn't be a surprise that the former is much higher.

Kynthia

Unless there are shared ownership properties in your road, or you've managed to find the odd property being sold at a discount (either to family or part exchange for a new build property), then the prices on the land registry are the genuine sale prices for the properties. However as said above, you are comparing asking prices with sold prices, and unless it's an area where houses go for more than the asking price the sold prices will be lower. Also the prices on the land resistry are at least 5 months ago or more, and even the outer London borough have experienced a boom over the last four months.

thequant

kcseb wrote: »

For example, I saw a property today on at £250k 'guide price'...looks decent value at £250k and will probably get that. HOWEVER...when I look at most recent sold prices nearby, it looks hideously over-priced. An identical house (few doors down) just 4 months ago sold for £205k.

Prior to that, the land registry data shows that in summer 2012, a house 2 doors down from the one today with identical floorplan (I checked!) but stunningly decorated (I mean like £40k worth of improvements) went for £185k!

I know the market is heating up, but seriously...25% in 4 months?

Am I missing something? Are the land registry prices off?

Best

K

Snap!! I'm seeing exactly the same thing (I'm hunting in London Burbs)

As others have said, there is about 6 month lag in the LR and no doubt prices have gained further momentum since then.

But agree, no way are they up 25% in just a few months.

Most annoying is seeing people who have completed in the past 6 months who are immediately putting the property back on the market for 25%-33% more than they paid.

I think a lot is EA ramping, because in my area these stories of properties being sold in a day for asking price plus is simply not happening. I could believe it if asking prices were the same as 6-12 months ago. But not when the price has been hiked up 25%+ past street records that have been recently set.

It got so bad that recently when my EA sent me through 3 properties that I calculated were 15-25% over their true price.

I said I was pulling out of the market until sanity returns on the grounds of "That the market is expecting prices to go up 25% over the next 5 years, then if everything on the market now has been marked up 25% then I've another 5 years to buy and I'm in no rush. Don't contact me again until asking prices start being sensible"

On Friday he sent me my first property since that conversation and I calculated the price was about 5% above "true value" and was worth viewing as a potential offer would be within a negotiable striking distance.

On meeting the EA yesterday, he conceded the properties he had sent me previously, were overpriced, had no interest in them and that the vendors are currently being advised and were reading to drop their prices by about 10%.

Trying to pass on the blame to vendors he said they "had been over optimistic about the current positive market conditions"

Richard_Webster

Might have been a sale between family members at a discount. This wouldn't show in LR records as not being completely at arms length.

bouicca21

Prices are easily up 25%plus in my area. And yes they are under offer virtually instantly. I await the next set of land registry sold prices to see if the transactions have actually gone through.

DRP

Using my own property as a case study ...

Sstc in 2007 @214k (fell through due to global depression )
Sstc in 2012 @213.5k (fell through as we couldn't find a house)
Sold in 2013 @235k

Up 10.1% in a year.

This is reflected in asking prices in my area too. Last years 310k is 350k+ in 2013...

Mickygg

Land registry prices are not always correct. The house I bought was incorrect! I know why, but it was still wrong..... So OP yes they can be wrong.