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MSE News: House prices up at fastest rate for three years
Comments
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Can you do another graph that shows house prices for the next 20 years without the erosion of sterling due to inflation?Mortgage free I: 8th December 2009!
Mortgage free II: New Year's Eve 2013!
Mortgage free III: Est. Dec 2021...0 -
Can you do another graph that shows house prices for the next 20 years without the erosion of sterling due to inflation?
I could do a nominal terms graph, ie, the actual money prices people pay for housing instead of being inflation adjusted like the previous graph.
But it would show much smaller falls in the last few crashes, in actual money terms we're now just 7% below peak, for example, and the next boom would go off the chart.;)“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
Rising house prices help nobody, apart from people selling up altogether for some reason. Everyone else (the vast majority) is damaged by rising prices.
Just another piece of manipulation by this appallingly useless government to try to make people feel good and vote Conservative or Lib Dem.
Rising house prices are great if you have more than one house. I believe something like half of MPs do.0 -
Rising house prices are great if you have more than one house.
Rising house prices are good for......
-The millions of people who are in or approaching retirement, and who either plan to, or may unexpectedly need to, downsize.
-The millions more people who are in their final property now, but will find themselves in the position above at some point.
-The couple of million people who bought within the last 7 years, who may be in or close to negative equity.
-The owners of the 2 million investment properties.
-The millions of people who may need to re-mortgage as and when rates climb, and want the best possible LTV ratio to get the best rates.
-House builders, construction industry, suppliers, investors, pension funds holding mortgage securities, banks, and all housing related industries, all of their shareholders and employees, whether they own a house or not.
-The family members of anyone who will leave an inheritance, or release equity to help their kids onto the ladder when downsizing, etc.
Rising prices are bad for......
-A few hundred thousand potential FTB's at any given time...... But only until they get on the ladder, and become one of the groups above.
And as for upsizers......
It used to be commonly believed that falling prices were better for them.
However this crash has proved that to be wrong, in most cases, because the price of their FTB property has fallen by far more than the price of the 2TB properties.
So the gap between rungs on the ladder has widened, not narrowed, with falling prices, and is now narrowing with rising prices.
In summary, rising prices are better by far for the vast majority of society, and falling prices only benefit a few, and then only temporarily.“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
The government's setting off a time bomb here with its interventionist policies,
No.
The "time bomb" was planted when successive governments over the years failed to build enough houses, causing what was already by 2007 nearly a million house shortage.
And then worsened by the last 5 years of mortgage rationing causing house building to fall to the lowest levels in a century while population soared.
Which led to rents soaring to all time record highs as well.
And now, as the biggest generation of FTB-s in history, bigger even than the boomers, meets the worst housing shortage in history, the boom is inevitable...“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
So to clarify, on the basis of a flawed graph and a single statistic on population growth you are predicting 25 years of hpi?
I think you could possibly be gordon brown after all!0 -
So to clarify, on the basis of a flawed graph and a single statistic on population growth you are predicting 25 years of hpi?
Not at all.
The graph, and accompanying text, clearly notes the reasoning and probability (rather than certainty) of outcome.
That doesn't make it flawed, it never claims to be anything other than "highly probable", and it's based on a lot more than "a single statistic on population growth".
We have decades of underbuilding already, we have had the mortgage rationing that sent rents to record highs and house building to 100 year lows, we have had significant population growth that is continuing, we have had an increase in single person households, the population of FTB age people is already here, and are already aging.
None of these things are speculation.
They are all established facts.
Barring an improbably huge house building programme of 400K a year or so for the next 2 decades, or a plague which wipes out large numbers of young people, there really isn't any way for the next boom to be averted.“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »A lot of misinformation being spouted in this thread about "government interference" and such like.
Whereas the reality is that this is nothing more than the BOE and Govt doing their job to restore at least partial functionality to a mortgage market that has been completely dysfunctional since the global credit crunch hit, and not before time.
In my opinion the current artificial repressing of house prices through mortgage rationing is starting to end, and the lowest house building in a century is about to meet the biggest generational bulge of FTB age people in history.
We're already seeing prices shooting upwards as the fundamentals of supply and demand re-assert themselves after years of artificial mortgage drought.
Currently at more than 6% year on year, could well be 10%+ year on year in the next few months.
Soaring population and the existing million house shortage will almost certainly mean prices continue to rise, a situation worsened dramatically by the last 5 years of mortgage rationing causing house building to fall to the lowest levels in a century, and the next boom will likely be the biggest ever as a result.
Remember in the last boom, we had several years of 20% plus a year price rises, people should be careful not to get caught out this time around, it could easily happen very quickly indeed.
Regardless, the likeliest outcome by far is a near doubling in house prices in real terms over the next cycle, as the mortgage market and wider economy recover, and millions of FTB age people run into the worst housing shortage in history....
Of course, other opinions may vary.....
But they've mostly been wrong so far
Another excellent post from Hamish
The doom-mongers have gone very quiet in recent times. Has anyone heard anything from Jonathan Davies or Capital Economics recently?0 -
The doom-mongers have gone very quiet in recent times.
Oh they're still around.
It's just that everyone now knows their arguments have no veracity.“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0
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