Reality check

shortchanged_2

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-24156664

News out today that provides a reality check for people not to get too carried away with the booming economy stories that have been bounding about of late.

As stated in the article the retail figures are often seen as a good indicator for economic confidence and it again appears that outside of London and the South East things still aren't that great.

I must admit I was wondering where all this consumer confidence had suddenly come from considering wage growth is still very low and being outstripped by inflation.

Of course the weather holds some responsibility for these figures.

Carl31

Interesting spending on food decreased when we had the best summer in ages, the supermarkets were full of barbecue stuff, which appeared to be selling well

wotsthat

shortchanged wrote: »

News out today that provides a reality check for people not to get too carried away with the booming economy stories that have been bounding about of late.

Good advice. A tentative recovery isn't the same as a boom or bubble and won't happen in a straight line either. Obviously the advice stands for people mired in gloom who can't see any light at the end of the tunnel

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/4481845

wotsthat wrote: »

Might have to face up to it - the economy's coming to the end of the 'bumping along the bottom' phase.

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Brave "prediction" wotsthat.

To say that at a time when they are touting negative interest rates and further QE to avoid whatever is around the corner is indeed very brave.

shortchanged wrote: »

I think we are still quite a way off that at the moment wotsthat.

There is still no evidence that the economy is going to pick up any time soon.

They were talking about possible negative interest rates only a couple of weeks ago! That does not indicate an improvement in the economy in the near term.

This was only 6 months ago. Not much of a prediction because the recovery was already underway when I made it but you and Graham couldn't even envisage an economy that could possibly pick up anytime soon.

Fast forward just 6 months and Graham's gone from considering a prediction of an end to the bumping along the bottom phase as being very brave to losing sleep about asset bubbles.

Loughton_Monkey

This from Tuesday's CPI wisdom from the BBC:

There was also a rise in food price inflation from 3.9% to 4.1%.

Yikes! A food price bubble. All those eggs and tomatoes are going to explode in our faces.

Single months - especially summer ones - are simply not representative.

grizzly1911

Loughton_Monkey wrote: »

This from Tuesday's CPI wisdom from the BBC:



Yikes! A food price bubble. All those eggs and tomatoes are going to explode in our faces.

Single months - especially summer ones - are simply not representative.

Very true but our standard food shop is only going one way. Fruit and vegetables seem particularly hard hit this year.

No doubt bread will reduce, as last years poor harvests are yet to be repeated. No I didn't think so.

chucky

shortchanged wrote: »

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-24156664

News out today that provides a reality check for people not to get too carried away with the booming economy stories that have been bounding about of late.

You would be a fool to think the economy is booming, there's a long way to go with this one yet... but we do seem to be over the worst which is what most people keep on telling you and the other usual suspects.

shortchanged_2

chucky wrote: »

You would be a fool to think the economy is booming, there's a long way to go with this one yet... but we do seem to be over the worst which is what most people keep on telling you and the other usual suspects.

Well there certainly seems to be a fair few people, some on here, who seem convinced that the UK economy is set for great things in the near future after a few months of positive data.

These figures show that it is far too early to suggest that the UK economy is fully on the mend.

wotsthat

shortchanged wrote: »

These figures show that it is far too early to suggest that the UK economy is fully on the mend.

A single set of MoM retail figures really isn't indicative of anything.

It's less than noise.

chewmylegoff

Carl31 wrote: »

Interesting spending on food decreased when we had the best summer in ages, the supermarkets were full of barbecue stuff, which appeared to be selling well

Well since July was very hot and August was a bit rubbish doesn't your anecdote seem consistent with the fall rather than contradict it?

Carl31

chewmylegoff wrote: »

Well since July was very hot and August was a bit rubbish doesn't your anecdote seem consistent with the fall rather than contradict it?

August wasnt that rubbish? not as rubbish as last year?

Plenty more barbecue opportunity anyway

Graham_Devon

wotsthat wrote: »

Good advice. A tentative recovery isn't the same as a boom or bubble and won't happen in a straight line either. Obviously the advice stands for people mired in gloom who can't see any light at the end of the tunnel

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/4481845







This was only 6 months ago. Not much of a prediction because the recovery was already underway when I made it but you and Graham couldn't even envisage an economy that could possibly pick up anytime soon.

Fast forward just 6 months and Graham's gone from considering a prediction of an end to the bumping along the bottom phase as being very brave to losing sleep about asset bubbles.

We'll be in a recovery when stimulus stops being thrown at the economy. At this current stage we are still ADDING stimulus.

The FED are said to have made things worse by not tapering. Yet you seem to think this can be seen as the end of something.

We're pumped full of drugs to remove the effects. Were not recovering, though I understand your definition will be very different and something we will never ever agree on.