The immigration thing

Jennifer_Jane

Guy_Montag wrote: »

But what will all these young people do in Grimsby & Middlesborough? The reason property is so cheap these is there's no damn jobs there.

I almost had sympathy for you until your penultimate sentence now I'm laughing.

Well, thanks for your sympathy for my planning plight, anyway, and I'm delighted to have made you laugh. But actually I'm not in Grimsby or Middlesborough, so I don't know about jobs there.

There's a large part of the UK that isn't actually London or the South East, and my point is that people have to stop moaning about high house prices, and do something different. I found a job in this area at age 51 - and this wasn't the job or type of job I'd been doing for the previous 5 years (was a Financial Advisor, am now a secretary), and I had to find a house I could afford as close as possible to the job - hence I live 18 miles away. My advice is make a plan and do what you need to do. Compromise may be the key.

Jen x

baby_boomer

BTman wrote: »

....but as soon as the cheap money and immigration dries up...

The UN is suggesting that push factors will keep immigration at the current unprecedented levels into the long term future, as well as the pull factors of life in the UK.

Generali

What about life in 2007 did the UN manage to predict accurately in 1964? This is just pie in the sky.

Global warming might have led to a series of catastrophic draughts in Aus and Brazil leading to a world wide famine and the death of billions....or not.

'Cold fusion' might have lead to free and near limitless power leading to a massive increase in living standards and thus population...or not.

Who knows, by 2050 we might even have found a use for Peter Mandleson*.



















*Sorry, I know that's ridiculous.

baby_boomer

Population growth and migration pressures are more predictable and less contentious than global warming. I imagine that the UN is extrapolating from recent trends but why should these not continue?

A world wide famine would be an unacceptable blot on humanity in an increasingly globalised world, but famine and water shortages will play a part in future population movement.

Generali

baby_boomer wrote: »

Population growth and migration pressures are more predictable and less contentious than global warming. I imagine that the UN is extrapolating from recent trends but why should these not continue?

To put the question back to you, why should they continue? Why should immigration/emmigration/birth/death rates remain the same?

If you extrapolated birth and immigration rates from the mid-1960s I bet you'd end up with a much higher population prediction for today than we actually have. Similarly, if you'd extrapolated from 1920 you'd end up with predicted population far lower for the 60's than was the case.

These 'predictions' are just straight lines drawn on a piece of graph paper. They're completely meaningless.

mee_2

Ad wrote: »

The Labour government allowed unlimited immigration into the country to suppress wages to assist with the fiddled inflation figures, which has kept interest rates at an artificially low level resulting in a huge asset boom.

All this just so Gordon Brown can get to be PM and the NuLabour remain in power for yet another term.

Such blatant xenophobia is more than I'm used to on MSE.

As one of those "dam**ed immigrants" myself, I can tell you categorically that the government has NOT allowed unlimited immigration, and you have no idea how many hoops those of us who want to bring our skills to this country have to go through.

Yes, there has been a change in the UK's culture and demographic due to immigration, but there is an argument that this is a good thing. However that discussion is for another thread.

Only now are the sheeple slowly waking up to the devastating social and economic consequences of rampant House Price Inflation.

I fail to see how this has anything to do with immigration. Low interest rates have nothing to do with immigration, and far more to do with keeping cheap money available to support GDP growth and prevent a long-term recession which threatened in the late '90s.

However I agree that the era of cheap money will have long term social effects, and a new set of social strata are emerging - the "haves" (landlords) and "have nots" - tenants.

Lets just not conflate the issue with immigration, please.

do_it_today!

well... like my dad said the other day... what we need is another world war... we're due one that will bring things back in to balance! (tongue in cheek of course) But do any of these statistics take into account any major loss of life events in the coming future?

pricedout_1

baby_boomer wrote: »

Population growth and migration pressures are more predictable and less contentious than global warming. I imagine that the UN is extrapolating from recent trends but why should these not continue?

There seems to be a ground swell of support to control immigration as most people are disgruntled with the levels that we are now witnessing. I think the next government (labour or tory) know this full well and will make this part of the manifesto and will then need to act on it when in power. The current home sectretary has made headlines along these lines recently also. So, I don't think that current immigration levels will be sustained.

Immigration is not necessarily as big a factor in HPI as you might think. A recent report by ABN Amro dismissed supply side issues such as immigration as secondary to natural 'speculative' HPI pointing to countries like Germany where the population and immigration levels are similar to the UK yet they aren't experiencing the same problems with HPI as we are.

In answer to your original post ...
" do we have confidence in our government's ability to ensure that the housing stock keeps pace with such a rise in order to ensure affordability? "

Gordon Brown recently said he would build in order to make housing affordable. When labour came to power he was also quoted "I will not let house prices get out of control"

Generali

hughgallagher wrote: »

Immigration is not necessarily as big a factor in HPI as you might think. A recent report by ABN Amro dismissed supply side issues such as immigration as secondary to natural 'speculative' HPI pointing to countries like Germany where the population and immigration levels are similar to the UK yet they aren't experiencing the same problems with HPI as we are.

Wouldn't immigration impact more on the demand curve than the supply curve?

Germany has very different rules about rental contracts than the UK!

baby_boomer

mee wrote: »

I fail to see how this has anything to do with immigration. Low interest rates have nothing to do with immigration, and far more to do with keeping cheap money available to support GDP growth and prevent a long-term recession which threatened in the late '90s.

Immigration has helped keep down wage inflation and therefore interest rates / mortgage rates.

The Bank of England's remit is to set interest rates to meet an inflation target, not to avoid recession. The Chancellor could alter that target if he became more worried about recession - but there would be a significant fall-out if he did.

Germany
It is interesting that the UN sees the German population falling by 10% 2050, so maybe direct comparisons aren't appropriate. Depopulation of former East Germany is proceeding apace, with women far more likely to move on.

The UK has got great advantages, not least the English language. It's hard to see it not remaining a prime goal for international migrants. Nor do I see a UK government succeeding in putting a "fortress UK" policy in place, and I wouldn't support it personally.

Immigration and demand for housing
I accept recent immigration won't affect HPI proportionately, often due to the high density use of accommodation by those working here on a potentially temporary basis. But they may succeed in building up their own wealth in due course.

But it must affect HPI on the margins. I was surprised to read recently that Buy to Letters had succeeded in putting up rents to match their higher mortgage payments.