Here's a way to sell a house.

JayScottGreenspan

The chance of winning is not 1000 to 1. It's a probabilistic trick.

gwapenut

If it's one number per person, and no two people know what numbers each other have chosen, then on average it will take tens or hundreds of thousands of entrants before all of the 1000 numbers have been picked randomly, let alone for the winning case where 999 numebrs have been picked twice or more and one number has only been picked once.

It would probably net in excess of £3 million for truly independent entrants.

ckerrd

no matter what I still wouldn't gamble on it.

RHemmings

ckerrd wrote: »

ok

So me and my mates buy the tickets. My two pals each buy number 1 - 999 and I buy number 1000. So I get the house for £30. They have spent £59940, so for less than £60k we have now got a £180k house. Obvioulsy to get round your rule of only one ticket per person we would have to be very clever or in a big consortium, but the seller of the house would be down £120000

Yep, the method could not be used with sufficiently organised people. Guy Montag's method of buying all numbers is particularly clever, but nobody has clearly expressed the reason why. Yet.

But, assuming that we do limit people to one ticket each, why is it a losing (but not too bad) deal to buy a ticket?

RHemmings

gwapenut wrote: »

If it's one number per person, and no two people know what numbers each other have chosen, then on average it will take tens or hundreds of thousands of entrants before all of the 1000 numbers have been picked randomly, let alone for the winning case where 999 numebrs have been picked twice or more and one number has only been picked once.

It would probably net in excess of £3 million for truly independent entrants.

You're getting there, but your numbers are way off.

RHemmings

JayScottGreenspan wrote: »

The chance of winning is not 1000 to 1. It's a probabilistic trick.

Yep, but can you tell me exactly why it's a lie, and how the lie masquerades as the truth in my original posting?

Generali

Unlicenced lotteries are illegal in the UK as far as I know.

RHemmings

Generali wrote: »

Unlicenced lotteries are illegal in the UK as far as I know.

But using them as a basis for mental mastication isn't, as far as I know.

gwapenut

RHemmings wrote: »

You're getting there, but your numbers are way off.

I can't be bothered working out the factorial maths, but I'm sure my £3m estimate is way too conservative.

JayScottGreenspan

The numbre of tickets will vary wildly depending on which numbers are chosen.
If people chose numbers randomly, it'd probably take something like 10,000 tickets to fulfill the payout criteria.
And people don't choose numbers randomly, but favour certain combinations of digits, so it'd probably take even more tickets than that.

In all likelihood the house would never be won. An expiration date on the small print of the tickets and all the takings would be pure profit.