UK needs +7 Million immigrants to keep debt down

surfsister

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Immigrants of young working age (as most are) will pay a full tax load for their working lives, but cost society less as we don't have to pay for their birth, childhood care, and education.

So even if we pay them a pension, it's a net fiscal gain to society.



It's nothing of the sort, and that suggestion is laughable.

Immigration is simply rebalancing demographic profiles to counteract an increase in people living longer, and falling birth rates.

It's maintaining the ratio's we had in the past, not creating new ones.

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is this fact included in the calculations? from the telegraph front page

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£1m a week in child benefit paid to children living overseas

Tens of thousands of children who live abroad but receive benefits claimed by immigrant families in Britain are costing British taxpayers more than £1  million a week, campaigners claimed.

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The research by Migration Watch UK comes after the Government admitted that just under 30,000 families claim benefits and tax credit for 50,000 children who live outside the UK, but within the European Union, Iceland and Norway. It costs the taxpayer £55 million a year to fund this system, which is replicated in only four other EU countries — the others require the child to be resident.

Sir Andrew Green, the chairman of Migration Watch UK, said: “It is absurd that child benefit is paid to children who do not even live in the UK.

“At a time that UK taxpayers are being asked to tighten their belts, the Government is paying out over £1 million per week to support children in other countries where costs are, in any case, often much lower.

“The majority of EU countries have the good sense to ensure that the child in question must be resident in that country in order to qualify and it is about time the UK did the same.”

Poland is home to the highest number of children who are receiving benefits claimed in Britain, with more than half the total (25,659) receiving welfare. Child benefit in the UK is worth £81.20 per month for the first child and £53.60 for subsequent children. This is about four times higher than Polish rates.

Migration Watch UK calculated that each year child benefits paid to 40,171 children overseas cost £36.6 million and child tax credit cost £18.6 million.
The Czech Republic, Germany, Latvia and Holland also allow benefits for children living in other EU countries.
The original figures were disclosed by Sajid Javid, a Treasury minister, in a written answer to Keith Vaz, chairman of the home affairs select committee.
The data will add to concerns about the impact of an expected wave of immigration from Romania and Bulgaria.
The Government has refused to give an estimate of the number of people who might move to Britain after gaining the right to live and work in the UK from the end of December.
Migration Watch UK has predicted previously that up to 250,000 Romanian and Bulgarian immigrants — equal to the population of Newcastle — could arrive in Britain within five years.
About 7.5 million families currently claim child benefit for about 13 million children, and about 5.2 million families receive child tax credit for almost 9.3 million children.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

surfsister wrote: »

is this fact included in the calculations? from the telegraph front page.

Yes.

The OBR include all costs and benefits when making their projections.

And be very wary of anti-immigration pressure groups like migrationwatch. They have an agenda to reduce immigration, and like to cherry pick data accordingly. Nothing wrong with that of course, but it's far from neutral and unbiased.

surfsister

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Yes.

See original post at top of thread.

so we need 7 million immigrants which means 7 million houses, 7 million more cars on the road, 7 million more docs appointments, 7 million more people on hospital waiting lists, 7 million more people needing water, electricity and gas supplies etc etc does n't sound sustainable to me.

also there appears to me in my town which is a big centre for immigrants a big imbalance in the sex of the immigrants as most are male and cluster in large groups on the pavement - so they can't be working, can they? I though immigrants couldn't work for so long once they come into the country or has this changed?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

surfsister wrote: »

so we need 7 million immigrants

Yes.

which means 7 million houses

,

No.

7 million more cars on the road,

No.

7 million more docs appointments,

Yes.

7 million more people on hospital waiting lists

,

No.

The costs of keeping the same ratio of capacity for services as today is included in the OBR forecasts.

7 million more people needing water, electricity and gas supplies

Yes. But this isn't likely to be an issue.

doesn't sound sustainable to me.

Why?

also there appears to me in my town which is a big centre for immigrants a big imbalance in the sex of the immigrants as most are male and cluster in large groups on the pavement - so they can't be working, can they?

The benefits claim rate for immigrants is much lower for immigrants than for the native born.

And a higher percentage of immigrants work than is the case for the UK born.

I though immigrants couldn't work for so long once they come into the country or has this changed?

Eh?

Bantex_2

Wish someone would come up with a figure on how much it would cost me if immigration was stopped. I could then decide whether it was worth it and decide where to vote based on a balance of pros and cons.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Bantex wrote: »

Wish someone would come up with a figure on how much it would cost me if immigration was stopped. I could then decide whether it was worth it and decide where to vote based on a balance of pros and cons.

I agree it would be a useful figure to know.

Although I actually suspect what would happen is the OBR or ONS would produce some pretty comprehensive figures, and then all the vested interest anti-immigration groups would try to rubbish them and create their own stats, and all the pro-immigrant groups would do the same, and then the public would be none the wiser.

Sort of like what's happening in Scotland just now with the referendum campaign..

Bantex_2

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

I agree it would be a useful figure to know.

Although I actually suspect what would happen is the OBR or ONS would produce some pretty comprehensive figures, and then all the vested interest anti-immigration groups would try to rubbish them and create their own stats, and all the pro-immigrant groups would do the same, and then the public would be none the wiser.

Sort of like what's happening in Scotland just now with the referendum campaign..

Would like to see a simple figure from each side though.

Example if it came up as a cost to me of £50.00 per week for less traffic, cheaper housing, better access to NHS and smaller school class sizes, I would go for it.
If it was £500.00 per week I would not.

Thrugelmir

Bantex wrote: »

Wish someone would come up with a figure on how much it would cost me if immigration was stopped. I could then decide whether it was worth it and decide where to vote based on a balance of pros and cons.

Given that the UK is still in a recovery phase. Why worry. All helps to pay the bills.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Bantex wrote: »

Would like to see a simple figure from each side though.

Example if it came up as a cost to me of £50.00 per week for less traffic, cheaper housing, better access to NHS and smaller school class sizes, I would go for it.
If it was £500.00 per week I would not.

The current government debt is around 80% of GDP and is around £40,000 per taxpayer.

Plus the ongoing cost of pension liabilities, plus PPFI, etc.

So I'd guess around £80,000 to £90,000 per taxpayer in total, plus the interest of course, so depending on when or if it is ever paid down perhaps £140K per taxpayer?

Under the zero net migration option this would more or less double.

Starts to become clear why no party ever cuts migration, despite pandering to the Daily Mail brigade at every election......

kabayiri

Come the next Robot revolution we will all be wondering what to do with these millions.

Something has to push our productivity figures up.