UK needs +7 Million immigrants to keep debt down

antrobus

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Everyone can do that. I've given a parliamentary report on it. Yet it's just ignored as irrelevant.

My point was that you don't appear to be able to debate it very well, other than calling others stupid....which funnily enough is what Hamish does too.

I'm beginning to see why you and Hamish have your little spats.:)

Graham_Devon

antrobus wrote: »

I'm beginning to see why you and Hamish have your little spats.:)

I'm beginning to see why you like Hamish quite so much

Seriously, come on, you keep going on about how people are not able to argue against what's put in front of them and look at your level of argument.

grizzly1911

antrobus wrote: »

It's perfectly possible that the OBR are wrong. But I have yet to see anyone on this thread even get close to advancing an argument why they are wrong.

I doesn't help when the reliability of the figures are questioned by an "influential " group.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-23475230

But the MPs warned that current net migration statistics produced by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and the Home Office were "blunt instruments" and were "not adequate for understanding the scale and complexity of modern migration flows"


It said the migration estimates based on the IPS were "too uncertain" to accurately measure progress against the government's net migration target.

And the IPS failed to gather the type of information needed to work out the social and economic consequences of migration, such as demand for the NHS or schools, the MPs said.

Committee chairman Bernard Jenkin said: "Most people would be utterly astonished to learn that there is no attempt to count people as they enter or leave the UK.

PeterWhiteUk

There are mobile billboards in UK which are telling illegals to leave UK

antrobus

Graham_Devon wrote: »

I'm beginning to see why you like Hamish quite so much

Seriously, come on, you keep going on about how people are not able to argue against what's put in front of them and look at your level of argument.

Actually, I have no particular regard for Hamish at all. (I'm sure he won't mind, he appears to be able to care of himself.:))

My basic contribution to this thread has been to point out that (a) Hamish is correct, the OBR report does say what he says it does (some people appeared to doubt that) and (b) that those people who are arguing that it is 'wrong' haven't come up with any reasons why it is wrong.

Please note that I'm not arguing that the OBR report is correct. Or even for that matter, that I particularly like its conclusions.

Sampong wrote: »

...Other than pointing out the fact that is a clearly unsustainable model with striking similarities to a ponzi scheme.

That doesn't mean that the OBR report is wrong. Simply that the implied solution - 'immigration' doesn't work in the long run. That might or might not be correct, but if it was correct, you would be faced with a number of uncomfortable economic decisions to make if the UK's demographics were such that we heading for a debt-GDP ratio of 140%.

antrobus

grizzly1911 wrote: »

I doesn't help when the reliability of the figures are questioned by an "influential " group.....

I'm not sure that the reliability or otherwise of Home Office statistics on current immigration levels have any bearing on the validity of the OBR report. The OBR are stating that their economic model shows that the UK needs 7 million immigrants to maintain fiscal sustainability; the fact that the Home Office (allegedly) won't be able to count them properly when they do arrive is beside the point.:)

grizzly1911

antrobus wrote: »

I'm not sure that the reliability or otherwise of Home Office statistics on current immigration levels have any bearing on the validity of the OBR report. The OBR are stating that their economic model shows that the UK needs 7 million immigrants to maintain fiscal sustainability; the fact that the Home Office (allegedly) won't be able to count them properly when they do arrive is beside the point.:)

When the base statistics (ONS?) maybe flawed it questions the validity and margin for error in models that may in part be derived from them.

It would be interesting to see the model and how sensitive it is to change.

grizzly1911

PeterWhiteUk wrote: »

There are mobile billboards in UK which are telling illegals to leave UK

A newspaper reviewer on the BBC news suggested it is the start of the conservatives election campaign. Crosbyesque undertones similar to 2005?

antrobus

grizzly1911 wrote: »

When the base statistics (ONS?) maybe flawed it questions the validity and margin for error in models that may in part be derived from them.

The base population projections come from the ONS. If they are 'flawed' then bear in mind, they might be 'flawed' in the other direction. Perhaps it's not 7 million immigrants we need, but 10 million.

grizzly1911 wrote: »

...It would be interesting to see the model and how sensitive it is to change.

You could always read the report. You can download it from the OBR website and save yourself the £30 price tag.:)

TruckerT

antrobus wrote: »

The base population projections come from the ONS. If they are 'flawed' then bear in mind, they might be 'flawed' in the other direction. Perhaps it's not 7 million immigrants we need, but 10 million.




You could always read the report. You can download it from the OBR website and save yourself the £30 price tag.:)

It is interesting that, whilst allowing that statistics can be flawed, you are still happy to suggest that the world can be defined (and predicted) in statistical terms.

The guys from OBR who appear on TV look to me like wet-behind-the-ears highly-educated 20-somethings who have never served in the real world. Politicians know different, and, like MSE posters, there is a close-to-zero acceptance of the OBR's conclusions.

You say that we should read the report, but the OBR guys seem happy to go on TV and summarise their statistics in a short soundbite measured in seconds.

TruckerT