A "full-scale property boom will begin in 2014"

Graham_Devon

OffGridLiving wrote: »

Can you not make that same leap in logic and agree that the credit crunch has helped the market reach a level it otherwise wouldn't be at?

That makes little sense. I've read it a few times, but can't make head nor tail of it.

The credit crunch was not stimulus, not planned. It was an (unwanted) response to various things, but mainly as a result of increased asset prices.

If you are taking the view that the credit crunch did something to prices, then yes, I would agree, but that could go on and on, as every policy worldwide will have some influence. Were talking about stimulus here though so I'm not sure how bringing the credit crunch in makes any sense.

Graham_Devon

wotsthat wrote: »

Well I don't agree because your stimulus was introduced in part as a reaction to a financial crisis and I don't see how you think it's valid to consider the effects of one without the other. If there had been no crisis and no stimulus I think prices would have trended upwards above inflation. Prices would probably be higher than now (especially ex. London).

If the Nationwide long term inflation adjusted trend had continued the average price would be about £180k.

As I said to OffGrid, this makes little sense. If there had been no loose lending, the prices wouldn't have been where they are at.

How far do you want to go back? We could go right back to the post war boom in building if you like?

Were talking about stimulus here. Or at least, I was. Not things that happened well before the stimulus arrived.

I'm baffled to understand how you believe stimulus hasn't increased prices though. It appears nearly everyone, even Hamish accepts this, bar you and OffGrid.

wotsthat

Graham_Devon wrote: »

If you are taking the view that the credit crunch did something to prices, then yes, I would agree, but that could go on and on, as every policy worldwide will have some influence. Were talking about stimulus here though so I'm not sure how bringing the credit crunch in makes any sense.

You want to consider the effects of market distorting stimulus but want to ignore a) the reasons why it was introduced and b) the market distorting effects of the credit crunch.

It's the cake and eat it argument.

wotsthat

Graham_Devon wrote: »

As I said to OffGrid, this makes little sense. If there had been no loose lending, the prices wouldn't have been where they are at.

Prices have been rising at 2.9% above inflation since 1975 - well before any loose lending.

Graham_Devon wrote: »

I'm baffled to understand how you believe stimulus hasn't increased prices though. It appears nearly everyone, even Hamish accepts this, bar you and OffGrid.

You're not paying attention then.

abaxas

If there hadn't been a 'credit crunch' there would be little or no market as houses would be selling for 200x sacks of tatties.

OffGridLiving

wotsthat wrote: »

You want to consider the effects of market distorting stimulus but want to ignore a) the reasons why it was introduced and b) the market distorting effects of the credit crunch.

It's the cake and eat it argument.

What he said.

ILW

abaxas wrote: »

If there hadn't been a 'credit crunch' there would be little or no market as houses would be selling for 200x sacks of tatties.

What does that mean?

Conrad

The recent help to buy stimulus has boosted activity and prices IMO but this is no bad thing as the tide is out on normal 95% lending of the type I used as FTB.

Rising prices boost the economy on many levels, not least of which is a sense peoples main asset is dovetailed into their general aspirant journey.

People feel the universe is onside when they get wind their house price is £20k up on last year. This prompts them to invest, take more risk, carry out home improvements, make a jump up the property ladder (a falling price causes the opposite effects).


Just accept this is how we do things in Britain and most of us have the chance of joining this equitable life journey.

We can and will rebalance to more manufacturing and wealth generation as well as enjoying the house price ride.

ILW

Conrad wrote: »

The recent help to buy stimulus has boosted activity and prices IMO but this is no bad thing as the tide is out on normal 95% lending of the type I used as FTB.

Rising prices boost the economy on many levels, not least of which is a sense peoples main asset is dovetailed into their general aspirant journey.

People feel the universe is onside when they get wind their house price is £20k up on last year. This prompts them to invest, take more risk, carry out home improvements, make a jump up the property ladder (a falling price causes the opposite effects).


Just accept this is how we do things in Britain and most of us have the chance of joining this equitable life journey.

We can and will rebalance to more manufacturing and wealth generation as well as enjoying the house price ride.

Not going that way though. If someone has a chunk of cash to invest they are more likely to put it into (no risk?) buy to let than manufacturing or innovation.

I belive that is what you have done.

grizzly1911

Conrad wrote: »

Just accept this is how we do things in Britain and most of us have the chance of joining this equitable life journey.

.

Probably not the best phrase to use.:eek:

http://equitablelifepaymentscheme.independent.gov.uk/