A "full-scale property boom will begin in 2014"

TruckerT

wotsthat wrote: »

Prices have been rising at 2.9% above inflation since 1975 - well before any loose lending

It is always possible to find an average figure to suit your needs - you simply adjust your parameters.

TruckerT

Conrad

ILW wrote: »

Not going that way though. If someone has a chunk of cash to invest they are more likely to put it into (no risk?) buy to let than manufacturing or innovation.

I belive that is what you have done.

Both.

We are exporting more to the world outside of Europe and there is every reason to expect this trend to continue. The Tories have done masses on this front but I can't be bothered to list these efforts once again. I would also cite the strengthening bond between University research and business in order to turn British invention into British products.

I maintain we are entering an unprecedented prosperity era, with rapidly changing technologies and the developing world being prime causes.

the_flying_pig

Conrad wrote: »

The recent help to buy stimulus has boosted activity and prices IMO but this is no bad thing as the tide is out on normal 95% lending of the type I used as FTB.

Rising prices boost the economy on many levels, not least of which is a sense peoples main asset is dovetailed into their general aspirant journey.

People feel the universe is onside when they get wind their house price is £20k up on last year. This prompts them to invest, take more risk, carry out home improvements, make a jump up the property ladder (a falling price causes the opposite effects).


Just accept this is how we do things in Britain and most of us have the chance of joining this equitable life journey.

We can and will rebalance to more manufacturing and wealth generation as well as enjoying the house price ride.

just rubbish, obviously. See previous discussions for an explanation of why.

wotsthat

TruckerT wrote: »

It is always possible to find an average figure to suit your needs - you simply adjust your parameters.

TruckerT

If you're trying to calculate the net effect of the credit crunch vs stimulus then you need to work out what prices may have been without the credit crunch vs stimulus.

I used the Nationwide long term trend graph to come up with a best guess as the data has been collated for nearly forty years and is reliable.

How would you do it?

Thrugelmir

wotsthat wrote: »

Prices have been rising at 2.9% above inflation since 1975 - well before any loose lending.



.

And post the credit crunch?

The long term average is falling back I suspect to pre boom times.

Been a while since we've seen the graph on this forum.

TruckerT

wotsthat wrote: »

If you're trying to calculate the net effect of the credit crunch vs stimulus then you need to work out what prices may have been without the credit crunch vs stimulus.

I used the Nationwide long term trend graph to come up with a best guess as the data has been collated for nearly forty years and is reliable.

How would you do it?

The credit crunch vs stimulus issue has only emerged in the last half-dozen years - 1975 was in the world-before-last.

It would be equally interesting, and irrelevant, to compare 2013 property prices with those of 1066.

TruckerT

lardeedeedar

Can I ask in what way do we think energy costs will impact on the housing market?

I have discussed this point with knowledgeable peers involved in various aspects of the energy industry. Many are actively paying off mortgages and getting out of property as they all seem convinced of the fact we will soon have an energy crisis to contend with that will surpass current issues and nul any idea of housing booms in the future. The more pessimistic genuinely seem to believe that in the next decade people will start to need to work not to pay mortgages, but pay energy prices to heat homes and cook! An alarming thought that may have far reaching effects.

It's also notable to observe other trends such as the demise of the baby boomers which will see a return of homes to the property market that are currently under occupied. Many will be larger properties and family homes (certainly true of our area), able to accommodate different ways if living together (an interesting notion if indeed energy becomes so expensive this becomes a factor).

Also we have health concerns and other emerging trends to consider that may impact, including health issues such as the prospect of younger generations dying younger than parents (due to obesity and related causes).

For those with money and investing in property and potentially keeping the bubble growing, there are issues with tenants that rarely get air time (certainly never on the property investment programmes!) Public and private landlords often have massive problems with rent arrears and property damage (I have professional experience in both these fields).

These issues combined with a lack of jobs for youth, increasing division between rich and poor has me wondering...can house prices really keep growing out of proportion of earnings?

wotsthat

Thrugelmir wrote: »

And post the credit crunch?

The long term average is falling back I suspect to pre boom times.

Been a while since we've seen the graph on this forum.

Fair enough. What was the long term average pre-boom times?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

The boom call in the OP is starting to look more likely by the day.

Thrugelmir

wotsthat wrote: »

Fair enough. What was the long term average pre-boom times?

I don't have the graph to hand.

Be interesting to see it extended to 2013.