A "full-scale property boom will begin in 2014"

Loughton_Monkey

You're a bad lad, Hamish.

Resurrecting old threads on a "I told you so basis".

Still, it's flushed the usual constituency out of the woodwork. But basically I draw heart from you #3 post which informs us all that we are looking at doubling our house values. Given all the good news since you wrote that, I assume you are sticking to it? Or are you likely to go even more bullish?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

.....I think we'll see prices nearly double in real terms over the next cycle, driven by worsening shortages and markedly lower average interest rates than the last cycle saw.

You mentioned these FTB's only paying 27% of income, so those who buy soon are going to be laughing!

But we need to know (and presumably you can tell us) how long the 'cycle' will be? Doesn't affect me, too much, but those buying at the end of the cycle aren't going to be happy bunnies. Presumably paying 52% of salary [if mortgage allows] or can only buy half what they wanted. Then mortgage rates will start doubling and some of these losers are going to be looking at repossession, and negative equity all at the same time.

All of this is of no consequence to you or I, dear boy, but I just worry a bit about side effects. If you can tell us the cycle length about which you are talking, I can 'time' my downsize accordingly. Maybe sell at the peak, then rent for six months while the prices crash again [Phew! now that would be a turn up for the books! Loughton Monkey renting!]. After that, go in for the kill and buy a decent smaller property at a minimal 'destressed sale' price.

... large gin & tonics all round...

chucky

nickj wrote: »

where do people think that all those who can't afford to buy their own house , or those who are paying the interest but can't afford to repay the capital will live when they retire and can't afford to pay £1000pcm rent or whatever it will be in 20 years time

Life choices...

nickj_2

chucky wrote: »

Life choices...

and who will end up picking up the bill for it

chucky

nickj wrote: »

and who will end up picking up the bill for it

Why should there be a bill?

nickj_2

chucky wrote: »

Why should there be a bill?

so those people should just go away and live under a bush ? nice

Tancred

Conrad wrote: »

Hamish is correct, prices will double in real terms in this cycle.

Booming ebullient economy is taking shape, confidence is building, the uk is becoming very enterprise friendly, there is a mood of self reliance rather than state hand-outs.

A reforming radical Government that will lead to a tory win in 2015. Miliband is on borrowed time.

Sounds like a Tory party political broadcast.

chucky

nickj wrote: »

so those people should just go away and live under a bush ? nice

If you think people should go and live under a bush good for you but that's not what I said.

Thrugelmir

Tancred wrote: »

Sounds like a Tory party political broadcast.

Sounds if someone is getting ahead of themselves on the back of a couple of good numbers in a quiet news period.

Don't think there's complacency either in the BOE or the Treasury.

mayonnaise

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

http://blogs.reuters.com/anatole-kaletsky/2013/07/05/who-will-get-credit-for-britains-economic-turnaround/

Recovery is certainly gaining strength....

But 2014 is still a brave call for the start of a "full scale property boom".

You're so bearish, Hamish.