If QE Was Withdrawn....

DunPin

grizzly1911 wrote: »

We have collapsed even more?

Compared to the PIGS? no, compared to much of Europe and the Eurozone? most likely.

Glen_Clark

srcandas wrote: »

As I said simply saying all is bad in the UK so the Euro must be great seems an odd way of looking at it.

It would be if anybody said that. But they haven't have they? So its just a straw man argument which I thought was beneath you.
I too have seen more beggars outside supermarkets in Spain than in Britain. But maybe that only says the more extrovert Spanish are less inhibited about begging. Which explains why so many people like yourself sometimes appear unaware of the poverty in Britain.

srcandas

Glen we are really not arguing about much here and we agree on the majority.

My original comment you picked up on was a reference to press/forum attention on the Euro as opposed to QE or lack there of. You introduced the UK into the melting pot.

But we will see what happens over the next two years or so :beer:

Thrugelmir

srcandas wrote: »

But we will see what happens over the next two years or so :beer:

May be a decade yet.

Only 25% the way through UK austerity. So some tough challenges ahead.

sabretoothtigger

The question is a fallacy to begin with. The BOE owns 1/3 of all UK debt and who is suggested will buy this from them to unwind QE


Ben B says we will just let it expire. In that case, not only would UK have no deficit; we must run a large surplus and use it all to reduce our debt by 1/3, for the loss of this major buyer

we are talking magical castles in the sky at this point, sounds lovely but this discussion's foundations are a bit light


I will not be planning to stand under such a structure :eek:

srcandas

Thrugelmir wrote: »

May be a decade yet.

Only 25% the way through UK austerity. So some tough challenges ahead.

Thrug I was referring to the Euro. In 2 years with Scotland going independent and the rest of the UK destined to exit the EU it will be a new ball game

Only joking :rotfl:

Thrugelmir

srcandas wrote: »

Thrug I was referring to the Euro.:

Only some countries in Europe have started the painful correction. France cannot remain out of the firing line indefinately.

Thrugelmir

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

The question is a fallacy to begin with. The BOE owns 1/3 of all UK debt and who is suggested will buy this from them to unwind QE

Bank debt will be resolved by credit contraction. That's the net effect of Basle 3. Estimates vary , but outstanding mortgage debt will need to contract by £250 - £400 billion. To balance with what the banks will be in a position to actually lend. There's no one to buy to the debt.

sabretoothtigger

I thnk bank debt, the bad stuff anyway, will be resolved by failure and consolidation of the debt. Ie. it will move on but at what price
This site is a testament to how people buy when the price right, well QE means we have bad prices, bad value and ultimately no buyers.. It undermines the real working market which I guess has to be ironic and so a completely lost point till we hit it square on undeniably.

There's no one to buy to the debt.

We have more people then ever before, UK, USA and the world so the idea of no buyers should never be true for a good product at the right price. Same for unemployment its not a lack of work, its a question of wages and worth vs costs

USA pays less interest now then in the 1980's when their debt was less then a third of what it is now.

QE withdrawing involves higher rates which would mean fairly quickly USA spends most of its budget on paying interest. This is why all the catch words like sequester are a joke, its 1/10th of how budgets will get squeezed by finance costs. We relate directly to that imo

We could self finance like Japan if we produced like they do but we import and they export so the 'If' in the thread title should be 'When' and it wont be withdrawn voluntarily and probably not gradually but sudden measures bought in to cope and balance books

atush

Glen_Clark wrote: »

Do you think thats not happening in Britain? Oxfam estimates over half a million people in Britain reliant on charity food parcels.
http://policy-practice.oxfam.org.uk/publications/walking-the-breadline-the-scandal-of-food-poverty-in-21st-century-britain-292978

Meanwhile disabled people who don’t want to be reliant on food banks are being taught how to scavenge for free food in supermarket skips and dustbins The workshops are being run in south Wales by members of the Disabled Activists Network Wales (DAN Cymru). - (link to this story is behind a paywall.)

Homeless 62 year old woman goes to council and is offered a voucher to buy a tent
http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/patrick-butler-cuts-blog/2013/jun/03/homeless-pensioner-offered-tent-by-council

(Maybe the British are less extrovert than the continentals, and are too embarrased to complain about their poverty?)

I am not sure about all these reports. yes, more people are using food banks. But have they still got internet? TV? Mobile phones? Still smoking? Some use Food banks for a week or two while waiting for their first benefit cheque, but then stop. They are counted as new users, sometimes implying permanence.

Not everyone uses their money in the best ways, as I used to see at the primary school gate where the kids from the council estate had better trainers than my kids, and their mom's all smoked. My spare cash went into savings for their future not flash and trash.